WI: Soviet Invasion AND OCCUPATION of Afghanistan in 1929

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

1) The Soviet military faced off against Afghanistan in 1925 over a border dispute that led to a small skirmish.

Urtatagai conflict (1925–1926) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In 1929 there was a brief Civil War in Afghanistan and the monarchy was temporarily overthrown by religious radicals and Turkic Nationialists , leading to the Soviets providing assistance to the monarchy.

Afghan Civil War (1928–1929) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2) My question is, what if the Soviet Union sees the monarchy as weak and ineffective and due to the threat of religious radicals and Turkic Nationialists, the USSR decides to do a all out invasion of Afghanistan and replace it with a communist government that's rules starting in the 1930s?

- Did they have the military strength in 1929 to accomplish this?
- Would it be correct to assume that Afghan resistance would be weaker during this time than it would in the 80s?
- How would the British react to communist expansion in Central Asia?
- How would this affect Soviet policy moving forward?

 

[Gillan1220]

- Did they have the military strength in 1929 to accomplish this?
- Would it be correct to assume that Afghan resistance would be weaker during this time than it would in the 80s?
- How would the British react to communist expansion in Central Asia?
- How would this affect Soviet policy moving forward?

Nope. The Red Army in 1929 was a terrible state. The reformation would only come during the disasterous Winter War with Finland in 1939-40. Simply put, the USSR was not capable of doing this in the 1920s-30s.

Afghan resistance would be weaker as well, but I don't see the Soviets gaining ground. They Red Army was not yet fully mechanized at ths period.

The British would have supplied the Afghan resistance against the Soviets. It would result in an earlier proto-Cold War with the USSR.

For the Soviet policy of moving forward, this invasion would definitely kill their economy. By the time the WWII happens for TTL, the Soviets would be at weaker position to face the Germans.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Nope. The Red Army in 1929 was a terrible state. The reformation would only come during the disasterous Winter War with Finland in 1939-40. Simply put, the USSR was not capable of doing this in the 1920s-30s.

Afghan resistance would be weaker as well, but I don't see the Soviets gaining ground. They Red Army was not yet fully mechanized at ths period.

The British would have supplied the Afghan resistance against the Soviets. It would result in an earlier proto-Cold War with the USSR.

For the Soviet policy of moving forward, this invasion would definitely kill their economy. By the time the WWII happens for TTL, the Soviets would be at weaker position to face the Germans.

The Soviets did very well against the Japanese in 1937, and 1929 is pre purge, so I don't think you are giving the Soviet military enough credit, although I do agree long term the British supporting the Afghan resistance would be a issue (at least until Hitler comes along and diverts their attention).

 

[Gillan1220]

The Soviets did very well against the Japanese in 1937, and 1929 is pre purge, so I don't think you are giving the Soviet military enough credit, although I do agree long term the British supporting the Afghan resistance would be a issue (at least until Hitler comes along and diverts their attention).

I'm not sure how well the Red Army was in 1929, but definitely not in 1937 levels. Even though they did do well against the IJA in Khalkin Gol, that was not the case against the Finns.

The British and probably the French (?) would send arms to Afghanistan just to tie down the Red Army. Yes, the attention would be diverted during the Phoney War phase.

 

[thaddeus]

close analogies might be the Soviet interventions over a crucial railway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_conflict_(1929) and in Sinkiang (Xinjiang) to support their puppet ruler https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Xinjiang

the Soviets certainly weren't the WWII juggernaut but it seems they could prevail in Afghanistan, the question would be the results elsewhere.

what would relations with the UK look like, obviously much worse than historical

 

[CHKeeley]

Even though they did do well against the IJA in Khalkin Gol, that was not the case against the Finns.

I mean as they just pointed out in their first response to you, the Winter War was fought in a condition of a severe lack of officers due to the ongoing purges. The Red Army before this would perform quite differently in a war. It isn’t like the Red Army was a decrepit institution from 1922 - 1941 or something. In fact, the officer class was quite good in the late 1920s to early/mid 1930s

 

[Ahab]

Maybe the soviets limet themselves to the Tajik and Uzbek regions, and annex them to their titular republics? So the rest pf Afghanistan can remain a pashtun buffer state between them and india

 

[Gillan1220]

close analogies might be the Soviet interventions over a crucial railway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_conflict_(1929) and in Sinkiang (Xinjiang) to support their puppet ruler https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_invasion_of_Xinjiang

the Soviets certainly weren't the WWII juggernaut but it seems they could prevail in Afghanistan, the question would be the results elsewhere.

what would relations with the UK look like, obviously much worse than historical

I'm curious though. If the Red Army of 1929 will still face an "unwinnable war" in Afghanistan just like their 80s OTL counterparts. Keep in mind this is the late 20s-early 30s where helicopter transports and gunships don't exist yet. The Soviets would be relying on biplanes for close-air support. I also doubt their tanks at this period would be capable of crossing the mountainous regions of Afghanistan since they would need to pass through the Uzbek SSR.

I mean as they just pointed out in their first response to you, the Winter War was fought in a condition of a severe lack of officers due to the ongoing purges. The Red Army before this would perform quite differently in a war. It isn’t like the Red Army was a decrepit institution from 1922 - 1941 or something. In fact, the officer class was quite good in the late 1920s to early/mid 1930s

Well then, I stand corrected.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

I think Soviet performance in Afghanistan would be on par with/slightly better than the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. Successful, but never permanently solved.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

How would this war affect Soviet military doctrine/weapons design moving forward?

 

[James123456]

What weapons did the afghans have during this time period?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

What weapons did the afghans have during this time period?

Probably some captured martini-henrys, Lee enfields, imported Geweher 88s, and domestically produced Jezails, along with swords and horses. Maybe a couple Maxim machine guns and bi planes.

 

[James123456]

So basically muskets? Man the Soviets are really going to be beaten.

 

[Gillan1220]

What weapons did the afghans have during this time period?

Probably some captured martini-henrys, Lee enfields, imported Geweher 88s, and domestically produced Jezails, along with swords and horses. Maybe a couple Maxim machine guns and bi planes.

So basically muskets? Man the Soviets are really going to be beaten.

Jezail muskets would be the predominant weapons. Mixed with bows and swords.