WI: Someone tries to colonize Japan.

[Roon von Bismarck]

In our time, this didn't happen. Certainly countries like the US, even the UK for that matter was trying to influence the region and potentially colonize it through controlling its economy, but they had their own issues that prevented them from really trying.

So, what if, someone *did* try hard to colonize Japan around the time of the Meiji restoration? Would it be possible, or would inevitable issues such as geography (being very far from European powers) prevent such an attempt?

 

[Evil Crusader]

In my opinion, people tend to underestimate how perilous was for Japan "pulling a Meiji" and how easy was the debt trap to fall in.
Japan had its own share of unequal treaties, of debts and of extraterritorial privileges that had to be clawed back. It Just so happened that they managed to never give Euros (and the US) an opportunity to seize power and appoint a local ruler to "protect" the way most eventually did; given the circumstances, it's more on Japan to fumble than for any other Power, save perhaps the UK, to actively try and make it into a Protectorate.

 

[Nivek]

In my opinion, people tend to underestimate how perilous was for Japan "pulling a Meiji" and how easy was the debt trap to fall in.
Japan had its own share of unequal treaties, of debts and of extraterritorial privileges that had to be clawed back. It Just so happened that they managed to never give Euros (and the US) an opportunity to seize power and appoint a local ruler to "protect" the way most eventually did; given the circumstances, it's more on Japan to fumble than for any other Power, save perhaps the UK, to actively try and make it into a Protectorate.

I think people underestimate how cohesive was Japan,so even at his worst would be unequal treaties but Japan as colony worth little

 

[Beatriz]

Look to the West has Russian Japan due to Moritz Benyovsky working with a disgruntled daimyo in the Northernmost han and defeating Japanese attacks, and eventually a syogûn vs emperor civil war and absorbing some local han as princely states

Admittedly Thande said it was to make a plausible version of Tony Jone’s Russian Japan in some of Tony’s timelines

 

[TRH]

In my opinion, people tend to underestimate how perilous was for Japan "pulling a Meiji" and how easy was the debt trap to fall in.
Japan had its own share of unequal treaties, of debts and of extraterritorial privileges that had to be clawed back. It Just so happened that they managed to never give Euros (and the US) an opportunity to seize power and appoint a local ruler to "protect" the way most eventually did; given the circumstances, it's more on Japan to fumble than for any other Power, save perhaps the UK, to actively try and make it into a Protectorate.

At the same time, the debt trap happens when governments lack the ability to raise revenue internally for necessary improvements. Japan was more or less unique among non-Western countries in its ability to trade with the West on its own terms and develop without need for extensive loans or foreign direct investment - all possible because its economy was efficient and sophisticated even before opening up. I think you'd need Japanese society to succumb to serious corruption and rent-seeking for it to become susceptible to the debt trap.

 

[Lord High Executioner]

In our time, this didn't happen. Certainly countries like the US, even the UK for that matter was trying to influence the region and potentially colonize it through controlling its economy, but they had their own issues that prevented them from really trying.

So, what if, someone *did* try hard to colonize Japan around the time of the Meiji restoration? Would it be possible, or would inevitable issues such as geography (being very far from European powers) prevent such an attempt?

Question for clartification: By "around the Meiji restoration" (1868) do you mean something like intervening in the Boshin War (1868-1869), by which
time the various Japanese armies had an increasing amount of modern firearms and all other Great to Moderate powers would likely go
"Oh, no, you don't"?

 

[Roon von Bismarck]

Question for clartification: By "around the Meiji restoration" (1868) do you mean something like intervening in the Boshin War (1868-1869), by which
time the various Japanese armies had an increasing amount of modern firearms and all other Great to Moderate powers would likely go
"Oh, no, you don't"?

Slightly before that, probably around the time of the Perry expedition.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Slightly before that, probably around the time of the Perry expedition.

It would still be very difficult to conquer Japan and objectively Japan doesn't have much to offer, it's much better to have an unequal treaty that allows you to make profit while not having to care about colonizing and holding it. The worst that could happen to the Japanese is being more influenced by the US and UK since they messed up in their tentative at industrialization and perhaps Hokkaido to Russia.

 

[Lord High Executioner]

Slightly before that, probably around the time of the Perry expedition.

So... Not around the the time of the Meiji Restoration...

 

[Pauh the federalist]

If it's general victorian era spain and the Dutch are to weak so they are put. The colony is to low value for the British when they are messing with India so that leaves only the french and the amaricans(it would still be odd for the amaricans i feel but if they still pick up the spanish philipeans amarican east asia wpuld be a really cool looking archapelogo of island colonys streaching from streching north to south along the pacific), while amarica is possible (for example possibly escalate a alt perry expedition to a war with japan refusing to open despite amarican gunboat deplomacy and amarica resorting to opening up japan via invasion) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perry_Expedition
I feel the french are the most likely unless you delay japense modernisation so when the late commers to the colonial race join germany and Italy might be possible options with Japan being one of the left over colonial scraps they would have to make due with since all the prime realistate has been snatched up.

 

[Evil Crusader]

At the same time, the debt trap happens when governments lack the ability to raise revenue internally for necessary improvements. Japan was more or less unique among non-Western countries in its ability to trade with the West on its own terms and develop without need for extensive loans or foreign direct investment - all possible because its economy was efficient and sophisticated even before opening up. I think you'd need Japanese society to succumb to serious corruption and rent-seeking for it to become susceptible to the debt trap.

Sorry, but this smells a bit of exceptionalism to me. Japan's economy wasn't particularly sophisticated, nor efficient, by any standard (though far from the bottom).
It did have the advantage in having a very good position to trade with the West on its own terms, but there's no denying the reforms went a long way, though crucially, they managed to not enrich a corrupt elite, rather being reinvested until the economy really benefitted from it.

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Whenever this topic comes up, people often cite Japan's perceived economic "worth" as a reason European powers wouldn't try it. IMO this employs a lot of hindsight and plenty of short-sightedness as well. European colonisers tended to go for prestige as much as anything else, and many attempts at colonisation were made with absolutely zero idea of whether the territories being claimed were worth a damn thing. Africa is a prime example. Yes, Europe knew there were resources there worth exploiting, but ultimately these colonies were money sinks clung to for the sake of imperial nostalgia and, as I said, prestige. Even while knowing these lands offered little in terms of economic value they were still coveted - Germany, both in WWI and WWII, had colonial ambitions in Africa.

France's invasion of Indochina was based on its rivalry with Britain and the assumption that "land in Asia = PROFITS" without any tangible idea as to the extent, or potential lack thereof. There was also the OTL scramble for the Pacific which saw tiny islands worth only their use as coaling depots for ships annexed en masse, mostly for no other reason than "better get it before Britain/France/Germany/America does!"

I vaguely remember a timeline a while back where a longer-lasting Napoleon III steers France into Japan, and becomes "Emperor of Japan" to parrot Victoria's "Empress of India" title. It was believable; the man had delusions of grandeur and was a colonialist.

I can't say for certain what power might go for Japan. Maybe America. It would be in-character for Britain at the time, but I can only see them making a solid push for it if someone else is in Korea (or vice versa). In any case, I think a POD prior to the Perry Expedition is probably needed, but it's absolutely within the realm of possibility.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

I think people underestimate how cohesive was Japan,so even at his worst would be unequal treaties but Japan as colony worth little

On the other hand, the feudal domains of Japan were openly hostile to one another even into the 1860s. The Satsuma even helped the Shogunate with the First Choshu Expedition in 1864, 2 years before they put aside their rivalry to form the Satcho Alliance to overthrow the Shogunate. There was also obviously the tozama daimyo being at odds with the Shogunate and their fudai daimyo allies (culminating in the Boshin War). Then there were the rebellions against the Meiji government (the Saga and Satsuma Rebellions) that showed that, while mostly cohesive, Japan had significant segments of the population terribly disgruntled at its leadership and the rapid pace of change that could be leveraged to undermine the government's authority. In short, there wasn't a shortage of divide and conquer opportunities even a decade after Perry's Expedition.

Had the Satcho leadership not been impressed by Western naval prowess and sent students (against Shogunate laws) to the west to study and build relationships and instead committed to fervent anti-Western expulsions like the Koreans did at the time or if the European powers reacted more harshly at the murders of Europeans in those domains, it's not unlikely the British and co. could've seized more treaty port concessions like how they did with the Qing. The British particularly could've seen it as a way to counter Russian expansion into East Asia and the Pacific (which would've been overblown in reality, but British paranoia about Russian expansion into Central Asia threatening India probably means this wouldn't have been that out of character for Victorian British policymakers, frankly).

Granted, keeping those possession in the long term might've been harder than holding Chinese concessions, given how fast Japan was able to modernize OTL. But it's not like the Western powers couldn't have tried and succeeded, to some extent.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

For an extra-early PoD, you might have Portugal subjugate and vassalize the Ryukyu Kingdom in the 16th century. Maybe they'll even Christianize it, making Okinawa the last bastion of Catholic Japan after Sakoku. The main issue here, though, is ironically not Japan - it's China. Japan had no claim on the Ryukyus until the Satsuma invasion of 1609, but China did, as the Ryukyus were nominally part of the Chinese tributary system. Even after subjugating the Ryukyus, the Satsuma had to let the Ryukyuans largely do their own thing and very subtly pull the strings, in order to prevent China from realizing that they subjugated the archipelago. If Portugal vassalizes the Ryukyus, Ming China might retaliate in some way; maybe they boot the Portuguese from Macau, or it even comes to naval engagements. Of course, it's also possible that the Ming don't give a shit and Portugal gets away with it. It's up to the author, imo.

As for the rest of Japan, I don't see it happening until the 19th century. Britain, France and Russia strike me as the only colonial powers with both the capability and the interest to vassalize the country. France was already in Indochina at that point and also launched a punitive expedition against Korea (though it was understaffed and the French didn't follow up on it). Russia could move down from Sakhalin to Hokkaido and then subjugate the rest of Japan from there. Britain is also a viable option. I honestly don't see the US colonizing Japan.