The last known cases of smallpox occurred in 1978. As far as anyone knows the only place that the smallpox virus exists is in labs in the US and Russia. If it got out through an accident or on purpose by some terrorist organization what would be the death toll worldwide?
WI smallpox got out?
- Thread starter gladiator8085
- Start date
shiftygiant
Gone Fishin'
Docudrama called 'Smallpox 2002'. It's about a terrorist releasing Soviet Smallpox on the New York Subway, and it quickly spreads across the world. pretty accurate in regards to what would happened and the various Governments reactions, so you know, check it out if you can.
Either/or. But for the sake of argument lets first tackle regular old natural smallpox.
Major panic.
Quarantine and inoculation of anyone who had contact with a victim.
Whole affair is over in a couple of months.
This is, of course, assuming that it happens in the US or Europe.
If someone releases it in the borderlands of Pakistan or northern Nigeria... Well... Oops.
Quarantine and inoculation of anyone who had contact with a victim.
Whole affair is over in a couple of months.
This is, of course, assuming that it happens in the US or Europe.
If someone releases it in the borderlands of Pakistan or northern Nigeria... Well... Oops.
Since 9/11 the USA, UK, Israel, and numerous other countries have stockpiled lots of smallpox vaccine. At least in the US numerous military have been vaccinated, and some medical personnel first responders. In most first world countries those born after around 1975-1980 at the latest have never been vaccinated. Vaccination is supposed to be renewed every 10 years for full protection, although some residual protection remains after 10 years and this is more for every booster one gets. The "multiplier" for natural smallpox is about 8 - meaning every infected person might be expected to infect 8 others in a susceptible population. If most of the population is immune (from natural disease or immunization) of course this is lower. Mortality from smallpox is around 30%, less with intensive care, more without or in populations with no history of exposure (virgin field like Native Americans when first meeting Europeans), and morbidity (meaning significant permanent injury not just scarring) is about 5%. lastly, folks with smallpox are contagious before they show obvious signs of disease - fever, feeling crappy, etc are nonspecific. Lastly the drainage from smallpox lesions can be infectious even when dry - note the history of blankets from smallpox victims given to Native Americans to spread disease.
Because it is highly contagious, is airborne,contagious before clear symptoms, is a hardy virus that tolerates exposure to the air, and requires no intermediate host (like plague or malaria) smallpox is, from an epidemic standpoint, one of the nastiest disease out there.
There will be a huge scramble to find index cases, and establish a "ring" quarantine and begin vaccinating like crazy. There will be lots of panic, lots of issues with "anti-vaccinators", and severe disruption of commerce trying to maintain international trade with countries trying to keep smallpox out. Well off countries with good public health/medical systems will suffer relatively few cases and deaths. Africa, some places in Asia and South America, very serious problems. You may see some very ugly things where a "healthy" co8untry borders a "sick" one and folks try to cross borders for vaccination/medical care - like live ammunition bad not tear gas bad. With some of the crazies out there now, like ISIS, getting smallpox back in the bottle which took a huge cooperative effort will be almost impossible. If I remember correctly the last case was in Somalia, not someplace friendly to WHO health teams right about now.
Release of smallpox back in the world is one of the scenarios that public health people and folks who deal with biowar scenarios very very nervous. I don't know if you can DNA modify the virus to be as nasty but also not affected by current vaccines, if that is the case its sort of a zombie apocalypse scenario (not real zombies of course but...)
Because it is highly contagious, is airborne,contagious before clear symptoms, is a hardy virus that tolerates exposure to the air, and requires no intermediate host (like plague or malaria) smallpox is, from an epidemic standpoint, one of the nastiest disease out there.
There will be a huge scramble to find index cases, and establish a "ring" quarantine and begin vaccinating like crazy. There will be lots of panic, lots of issues with "anti-vaccinators", and severe disruption of commerce trying to maintain international trade with countries trying to keep smallpox out. Well off countries with good public health/medical systems will suffer relatively few cases and deaths. Africa, some places in Asia and South America, very serious problems. You may see some very ugly things where a "healthy" co8untry borders a "sick" one and folks try to cross borders for vaccination/medical care - like live ammunition bad not tear gas bad. With some of the crazies out there now, like ISIS, getting smallpox back in the bottle which took a huge cooperative effort will be almost impossible. If I remember correctly the last case was in Somalia, not someplace friendly to WHO health teams right about now.
Release of smallpox back in the world is one of the scenarios that public health people and folks who deal with biowar scenarios very very nervous. I don't know if you can DNA modify the virus to be as nasty but also not affected by current vaccines, if that is the case its sort of a zombie apocalypse scenario (not real zombies of course but...)