WI: Sigismund II Predeceases His Father

Kellan Sullivan

@Jan Olbracht @krieger

Say Sigismund August dies in 1546/1547. What happens next? Hohenzollern Poland? Isabella Jagiellonica becomes queen in her own right (I can see Bona pushing for this, but how much time Sigismund I will have to set his house in order, IDK).
 

Jan Olbracht

Kellan Sullivan said:
@Jan Olbracht @krieger

Say Sigismund August dies in 1546/1547. What happens next? Hohenzollern Poland? Isabella Jagiellonica becomes queen in her own right (I can see Bona pushing for this, but how much time Sigismund I will have to set his house in order, IDK).
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So that bear hunting in 1547 when SA was almost killed goes like OTL except for 'almost' part?

Joachim Hohenzollern would need to abandon Lutheranism-would he decide that Cracow and Vilnius are worth a mass?

Other option is Isabella Jagiellon + Ferdinand Habsburg Jr. In such case Isabella and her son would propably leave unstable Transylvania for good.
 
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Jan Olbracht

Kellan Sullivan said:
Weren't he and his wife living separately (because of the whole Catholic-Lutheran thing) already? If so, could Hedwig return to Poland with her sons?
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Hedwig's son is too young IMHO, although in fact Lithuanians would decide who'll take the throne-it is before Union of Lublin so they may choose their new ruler first and Poles would have no choice but follow them.
 

Kellan Sullivan

Jan Olbracht said:
Hedwig's son is too young IMHO, although in fact Lithuanians would decide who'll take the throne-it is before Union of Lublin so they may choose their new ruler first and Poles would have no choice but follow them.
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Could be "fun" if one side's pulling for Hedwig, one side for Isabella, no?

One has a Lutheran husband but the other is unattached and can be used to secure a "decent" match
 

Jan Olbracht

Kellan Sullivan said:
Could be "fun" if one side's pulling for Hedwig, one side for Isabella, no?

One has a Lutheran husband but the other is unattached and can be used to secure a "decent" match
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If Sigismund the Old still lives as long as IOTL (I think death of only son would rather fasten his death) then there is some time to solve question of succession. Bona would push for her own daughter, but considering her unpopularity, that may cause backlash. If Joachim takes decisive action (including conversion) throne would be his.
 

Kellan Sullivan

Jan Olbracht said:
If Sigismund the Old still lives as long as IOTL (I think death of only son would rather fasten his death) then there is some time to solve question of succession. Bona would push for her own daughter, but considering her unpopularity, that may cause backlash. If Joachim takes decisive action (including conversion) throne would be his.
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Say Joachim refuses to convert? Then does the throne go to Isabella by default? Or does it go to Hedwig on condition that she separate from her husband?
 

Jan Olbracht

Kellan Sullivan said:
Say Joachim refuses to convert? Then does the throne go to Isabella by default? Or does it go to Hedwig on condition that she separate from her husband?
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Then Hedwig is out of the game for sure, but would Joachim refuse? He played good Catholic to get Hedwig's hand, wouldn't he play again to get her father's thrones?
 

Zygmunt Stary

Kellan Sullivan said:
Say Sigismund August dies in 1546/1547. What happens next? Hohenzollern Poland? Isabella Jagiellonica becomes queen in her own right (I can see Bona pushing for this, but how much time Sigismund I will have to set his house in order, IDK).
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Joachim didn't give a jackshit about religion, and I'm not sure if Poles or Lithuanians would elect a female herself (Isabella or Hedwig) to rule them. Anna Jagiellonica never actually ruled, and the times are even more cautious towards female ruler than they were earlier. And Polish nobility already had been granted right to elect whoever they wish to (it happened in 1537) and you yourself can see what nobility was willing to do in absence of male Jagiellon - they elected Henry of Valois only with promise to marry Anna Jagiellonica, so I don't expect Isabella to do better than her sister (although he might become rallying point for an opposition against Joachim and his rule).
 

Zygmunt Stary

Kellan Sullivan said:
Difference of course, being that Isabella would only be in her 20s here, rather than her 50s (like Anna was).
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And what she could do? Buy a magnate's support with her arse? This is only one magnate and the rest would absolutely hate this candidature (it is no coincidence that first magnate king was Michał Korybut Wiśniowiecki, who was almost universally despised, to the point in which all state officials disobeyed him with no effect and the state as a whole stopped working).

Kellan Sullivan said:
Which is precisely why I could see Sigismund's younger daughters being married off much sooner than OTL
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To the lowest possible bidders/members of Joachim's family, I think.
 
kaiidth

kaiidth

Kellan Sullivan said:
Difference of course, being that Isabella would only be in her 20s here, rather than her 50s (like Anna was).
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Young widow, proved herself fertile already, should be easy to find a good Polish or Lithuanian match for Isabella.

What about the various branches of the Geminid descendants?
Kellan Sullivan said:
Which is precisely why I could see Sigismund's younger daughters being married off much sooner than OTL
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Absolutely agree!
Kellan Sullivan said:
Duly noted
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Sh## happens, right?
 

Kellan Sullivan

kaiidth said:
Young widow, proved herself fertile already, should be easy to find a good Polish or Lithuanian match for Isabella.
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Zygmunt Stary said:
And what she could do? Buy a magnate's support with her arse? This is only one magnate and the rest would absolutely hate this candidature
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I meant rather that the magnates agree that Isabella marry someone not Polish/Lithuanian (Ferdinand I's second son or the elector of Bavaria (Albrecht V) or Charles de Valois, duc d'Angouleme; I assume the duque de Beja and duke of Bavaria-Landshut might make a play, after all, they did for Hedwig OTL), and support Isabella (and her kids by him, to avoid a messy PU between Poland-Lithuania-Hungary/Transylvania) as queen. Rather than elevating one of their own to a position that none of the others will be happy about.
 

Zygmunt Stary

Kellan Sullivan said:
I meant rather that the magnates agree that Isabella marry someone not Polish/Lithuanian (Ferdinand I's second son or the elector of Bavaria (Albrecht V) or Charles de Valois, duc d'Angouleme; I assume the duque de Beja and duke of Bavaria-Landshut might make a play, after all, they did for Hedwig OTL), and support Isabella (and her kids by him, to avoid a messy PU between Poland-Lithuania-Hungary/Transylvania) as queen. Rather than elevating one of their own to a position that none of the others will be happy about.
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I think that PU with Transylvania could be desired by some of magnates (especially those on south), after all Stephen Bathory was IOTL prince of Transylvania and king of PLC at the same time, so I'm not really sure. If Isabella wants to oust her half-sister and her husband from power, she'd better marry someone with his own faction and support John Sigismund as a next king of Poland.
 
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