WI: Russian Hokkaido

[GauchoBadger]

Basically, what if the Russian Empire had acquired Hokkaido in the mid-19th century before Japan would be able to solidify its control over the island? What would this mean for...
- The island itself? IOTL Japan established agricultural and settlement policies in the island with imported techniques, intending to make it a breadbasket. Might the Russians do the same, or would this be hampered by logistics as the Russian governors prefer to make it a military outpost of sorts instead? What about the native Ainu, could they have better prospects of survival ITTL?
- Japan? What might the Meiji Restoration period look like for Japan if Hokkaido is in someone else's hands?

 

[General Tirpitz]

From the Japanese perspective, how Russia gains the island would affect things. IOTL it was really until 1875 that the border area between Japan and Russia in Sakhalin become well-defined. Is it a sudden invasion or a more slower movement of settlers to the island? Also, there is actually Japanese towns on the Oshima Peninsula, so if Russia wants to gain the whole island, there will be probably some sort of armed conflict, though you would probably have incidents between Japanese and Russian even before that. Although Hokkaido wasn't officially a part of Japan, it was tightly linked to the Japanese economy through trade even before the annexation. Seaproducts were an important trade item, particularly fertilizer made from herring which the Japanese argiculture dependent heavily. If Russian influence starts to grow on the island during the early part of the 19th century, it probably would start to affect movement of these items even before the island is officially annexed.

Also, by the early 19th century Japanese started to become increasingly paranoid about Russian expansionism and there were waves of hysteria about potential Russian military adventures. Because of this, the Tokugawa Shogunate actually took the direct control over the island twice, 1799-1821 and 1855-1858. Nikolai Rezanov, after denied an entry to Nagasaki and generally having been mistreated by the Shogunate officials in 1805, spent his return journey by burning Japanese coastal villages leaving a sour taste to the mouth of Japanese government towards Russia and probably proving their worst fears. If they actually started to receive reports of Russians moving around the island, they would take some sort of action to counter that.

 

[stevej713]

I personally think that Japan would try to seize the island first chance they get. Under the Russian Empire, it would likely be a poor, distant outpost - especially before the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad. A Japanese invasion of the island would be far easier than any Russian attempt to defend it.

 

[General Tirpitz]

I personally think that Japan would try to seize the island first chance they get. Under the Russian Empire, it would likely be a poor, distant outpost - especially before the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad. A Japanese invasion of the island would be far easier than any Russian attempt to defend it.

This was also what I was thinking. Russian Hokkaido is an extremely threatening development from the Japanese perspective, particularly if there was some conflict which led to the takeover. Did Russians force the Matsumae clan to accept their overlordship by the threat of arms or after some violent conflict or was the clan completely booted off from the island? It's essentially a Shogunate's nightmare scenario and depending how it happened the whole opening and modernization of Japan might have gone differently. OTOH, Hokkaido is as far as you can get from from European Russia, if you don't count Alaska, so it probably wouldn't get that much attention from St. Petersburg, except as a military outpost.