WI: Romney doesn't run in 2012?

[Just a Rube]

It's not going to be Huntsman (people still hadn't forgiven him for agreeing to be Obama's ambassador to China, which strongly limits his ability to run further right than where he ran OTL).

It's never going to be Paul; he appeals to a specific subset of the Republican Party. They can be very passionate (which lets them do ok in caucus states), but cap out at 10-15% in actual primaries. That's a hard ceiling, and not one he can breach.

Most likely, someone else jumps in to represent the establishment. Maybe Perry manages to remember all three departments he wants to eliminate. Maybe one of the miscellaneous governors/senators who were speculated about decides to go for it (remember Haley Barbour?). It's not impossible Santorum or Gingrich ends up winning if nobody plausible jumps in. Either of those two would be crushed in a landslide in the general, however.

 

[Hodor]

Didn't Michelle Bachmann have similar views on foreign policy to Ron Paul, though? I remember reading interviews with her in which she condemned Obama for being basically too hawkish and more interested in the freedom of non-Americans.

Their foreign policy goals were diametrically opposed. Bachman is a Neoconservative beholden to the Israel lobby who would continue the push for Global US hegemony, were as Ron Paul wanted to close down most US bases located outside of the territory of the USA.

 

[SlideAway]

If the field is the same as OTL, then Pawlenty or Perry probably have the strongest shots. Perry might jump in earlier and with greater preparation.

Of course, as noted, in Romney's absence others might well have jumped in. Barbour seemed closest to running and had some establishment support (but difficult to see the party nominating a fat former lobbyist from the Deep South with a history of racial baggage). Huckabee might well have run as well, and would probably displace Santorum. OTL recruitment efforts to get Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan to run might have gotten farther. (Mitch Daniels too, but hard to see his family's opposition to his running changing.)

My guess is Pawlenty, but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the others be the actual nominee. Hard to see any of them beating Obama or doing better than Romney though.

 

[usertron2020]

Their foreign policy goals were diametrically opposed. Bachman is a Neoconservative beholden to the Israel lobby who would continue the push for Global US hegemony, were as Ron Paul wanted to close down most US bases located outside of the territory of the USA.

Even Fox News became totally fed up with Bachman's vapidness. O'Reilly's interview with her about Republican disunity was a classic. She basically stuck to a single talking point (about the Republicans being united under a single message) while the expectedly normally very friendly Billo sat there perplexed at how she ignored everything he was telling her about the fact that she was completely wrong on that very point. She was just getting too many things wrong with stunning regularity, almost to the point of Sarah Palin. But Bachman didn't have the excuse of Palin's ignorance and weak brain power.