WI: Rhodesia joins the Union of South Africa in 1922?
- Thread starter GeneralInTheShell
- Start date
Political Pressure in like a teapot
Having grown up in the American Deep South during segration, I have developed a theory that political pressure is like a teapot with the fire on. Poltical protest start out peaceful. They are hoping that the more tolerant people in group A will see the justice in Group B demands. After the steam has started to build, if the more tolerant people in Group A can work out a compromise ie opening up the voting franchise even with limits based on education and involving the leaders on the Group B to be part of the local government, then the safety value opens and the steam escapes. You can then have a nice cup of tea.
If on the other hand, there is no attempt to reach out to the leaders of group B, they may be pushed aside by more radical leaders who demand more now. The protest become more confirmational. Violence starts and soon both sides are fighting. The society does not move forward but is trapped in situation where all economic growth is given up so that both sides can keep fighting. The tea kettle blows up and you have a big mess.
One thing that I have wondered about is if Smuts is reelected could he have worked out a compromise where blacks who had served in the military, or they had a high school education or higher, or if they owned their own business/farm could have been allowed to vote? Would this limited franchise reduce some of the pressure and over time allowed the blacks to build up a majority while the whites get use to the idea of a black majority in control?
Stubear1012
Having grown up in the American Deep South during segration, I have developed a theory that political pressure is like a teapot with the fire on. Poltical protest start out peaceful. They are hoping that the more tolerant people in group A will see the justice in Group B demands. After the steam has started to build, if the more tolerant people in Group A can work out a compromise ie opening up the voting franchise even with limits based on education and involving the leaders on the Group B to be part of the local government, then the safety value opens and the steam escapes. You can then have a nice cup of tea.
If on the other hand, there is no attempt to reach out to the leaders of group B, they may be pushed aside by more radical leaders who demand more now. The protest become more confirmational. Violence starts and soon both sides are fighting. The society does not move forward but is trapped in situation where all economic growth is given up so that both sides can keep fighting. The tea kettle blows up and you have a big mess.
One thing that I have wondered about is if Smuts is reelected could he have worked out a compromise where blacks who had served in the military, or they had a high school education or higher, or if they owned their own business/farm could have been allowed to vote? Would this limited franchise reduce some of the pressure and over time allowed the blacks to build up a majority while the whites get use to the idea of a black majority in control?
Stubear1012
You mean post war? Remember, Smuts lost in 48, several years after the war finished.
Yeah, Coloureds could vote, not sure what the exact requirements were. The Nats took them off the voters roll in the 1950s. There were even a small number of black people who could vote, if I'm not mistaken.
Smuts reelected in 1948
Yes, thank you, I was thinking about the election of 48. As I understand it, that election was a crucial election for SA. I am assuming that SA like the USA, had very little physical damage due to the war and the economy had boomed due to the war time demand. In good economic times, people are more hopeful. Also, in the USA, many of the blacks and other minorities took the Allies talk about a war for people's freedom to heart. Also, similaries between the Nazis philosophy and that of the white racists in the USA made many liberals uncomfortable. So after the war, the conditions were better to start the process of ending segregation. It still was a hard and bloody struggle.
I am thinking that the same conditions were in SA. A decent economy, the blacks encouraged by the Allies positions on freedom, a sense that the blacks had served the Britain and SA during the war with honor, a discomfort with the similaries between the Nazis philosophy and the racial policies of the National Party, and so on.
Stubear1012
Yes, thank you, I was thinking about the election of 48. As I understand it, that election was a crucial election for SA. I am assuming that SA like the USA, had very little physical damage due to the war and the economy had boomed due to the war time demand. In good economic times, people are more hopeful. Also, in the USA, many of the blacks and other minorities took the Allies talk about a war for people's freedom to heart. Also, similaries between the Nazis philosophy and that of the white racists in the USA made many liberals uncomfortable. So after the war, the conditions were better to start the process of ending segregation. It still was a hard and bloody struggle.
I am thinking that the same conditions were in SA. A decent economy, the blacks encouraged by the Allies positions on freedom, a sense that the blacks had served the Britain and SA during the war with honor, a discomfort with the similaries between the Nazis philosophy and the racial policies of the National Party, and so on.
Stubear1012
On the subject of Coloureds if you had a reasonably smart government that wasn't too far up it's own arse with Afrikaner nationalism along with encouraging greater immigration what is the possibility of co-opting the Coloured population, in OTL they've been "too black for the National Party, too white for the ANC" but considering the make up 10% of the population if the government could get their support it would make minority rule much more sustainable.
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Part of the reason they were removed was because they were solid United Party supporters generally, so politics, as much as apartheid, motivated their removal.
The current political dynamics of coloured people are quite interesting now, they, along with Indians, are probably the only real 'swing' constituency in South Africa. Nearly all blacks vote ANC, and more than 90% of whites vote DA.
The thing to remember is that the United Party/Smuts, for all the liberals, non white voters or other members it may have had, was still a party that principally represented the interests of the White (Anglo-Afrikaner) majority while being the party of the Establishment.
The people who were die-hard United Party supporters were often also quite keen to preserve or moderately extend the informal system of racial privilege they had. They may have disagreed with Grand Apartheid (actual separation), but there was a consensus that South Africa was a country to be run for the benefit of the White man.
The people who were die-hard United Party supporters were often also quite keen to preserve or moderately extend the informal system of racial privilege they had. They may have disagreed with Grand Apartheid (actual separation), but there was a consensus that South Africa was a country to be run for the benefit of the White man.
Yeah, of course.
That was the UP's achilles heel, the 'native' question. When the Nats used to ask them, "What are you going to do about the blacks then?" they never had a satisfactory answer.
I actually considered buying the autobiography of Sir De Villiers Graaf today, he was the leader of the UP for most of the '50s and '60s.
Got too many books on my waiting list at the moment now though.
Yeah, of course.
That was the UP's achilles heel, the 'native' question. When the Nats used to ask them, "What are you going to do about the blacks then?" they never had a satisfactory answer.
I actually considered buying the autobiography of Sir De Villiers Graaf today, he was the leader of the UP for most of the '50s and '60s.
Got too many books on my waiting list at the moment now though.
That would be an interesting read. I was listening to a Radio New Zealand (State Broadcaster) interview with Major Bob Wood, 19th Wellington Battalion NZ Division some months back, who was a veteran of WW2 and had quite the adventures.
Anyway, he met De Villiers Graaf while in an Axis prison camp. He said he was a lovely guy.
Possibly. His father was a very successful loyalist Afrikaner businessman in the Cape, knighted for his troubles
Idunno. ISTR reading that a lot of "whites" from Angola and Mozambique migrated to South Africa.
What I remember reading specifically was that a nearby neighborhood (like many others) had "gone Portugee", since the writer's last visit to South Africa.
Here's another possible variant: does alt-South Africa accept displaced East African Indians? They're not "white" - but they're not black, either.
Add it all up; a wave of white ethnic DPs in the 1940s and 1950s; whites and South Asians from East Africa; Luso-Africans in the 1980s. How large is the non-black population of South Africa by the 1990s?
1922 referendum result in favour of S. Rhodesia joining S. Africa - ASB or plausible?
Would a 1922 referendum victory in favour of Southern Rhodesia joining South Africa have actually been plausible, or is that going somewhat into ASB territory? Because a reason that Southern Rhodesians rejected union with South Africa 60-40 was because they were afraid that they would be swallowed up by a polity that contained an Afrikaner majority among the whites, and/or that a good number of Afrikaner immigrants would come to S. Rhodesia. Would even more persuasion to Southern Rhodesians than OTL by the British, South Africa, and the British South Africa Company have made a significant difference in the outcome of the referendum?
Would a 1922 referendum victory in favour of Southern Rhodesia joining South Africa have actually been plausible, or is that going somewhat into ASB territory? Because a reason that Southern Rhodesians rejected union with South Africa 60-40 was because they were afraid that they would be swallowed up by a polity that contained an Afrikaner majority among the whites, and/or that a good number of Afrikaner immigrants would come to S. Rhodesia. Would even more persuasion to Southern Rhodesians than OTL by the British, South Africa, and the British South Africa Company have made a significant difference in the outcome of the referendum?
Huh. Nice necro. Just back to the topic of mustaches, I must have been more affected by De Villiers Graaf than I had realised, as I rocked a similar mustache for much of the last 4 months