WI Qing China accepted de Lagrené's proposal?

[splee]

In 1844, Qing China signed the Treaty of Whampoa with France, and the French formally obtained all the privilege the English gained the year before.

But from what I recently read, Théodore de Lagrené, the French envoy to China, orginally suggested some interesting points alongside the commercial treaty (which the Chinese would have agreed within one day):

1. Exchange of envoys between China and France, where the French legation shall be situated in Peking. [The Chinese dislike the idea of opening Peking. The Legation_Quarter in Peking was established only in 1861, after the Second Opium War.]
2. Cessation of Bocca Tigris (I think this means some land near it) to France, so that "France could assist in defence against the English". And "kindly" the French "shall bear all the cost of defence".
3. China may send some pupils to France, where they shall be trained in French naval academies.

The Chinese could not see any good in these suggestions and finally declined all these suggestions.

What if they realized earlier the need for modernization, and agreed to all these points (or only no. 3)? The French legation could have been situated in Canton instead, as the Chinese was quite stubborn on the closing of Peking.

But Bocca Tigris would be more than a fair exchange for an earlier modernization. If China started to build a Western navy in the mid-1850s, could it become a regional power by late 19th century? And, could such Franco-Chinese friendship last longer and evolve into some sort of alliance near to the Anglo-Japanese alliance in OTL?

 

[Hendryk]

One wonders whether Lin Zexu would have been receptive to French offers. He had been unfairly demoted in 1840, and sent to Xinjiang (the Chinese equivalent of being sent to Guam), but in OTL he was eventually called back to deal with Taiping rebellion. He could have been called back earlier as a negotiator with the French, and seen in their offer a way to get back at the British eventually.

With a modern navy in the 1850s, China wouldn't so much "become a regional power by late 19th century" as, simply, remain one.

 

[splee]

One wonders whether Lin Zexu would have been receptive to French offers. He had been unfairly demoted in 1840, and sent to Xinjiang (the Chinese equivalent of being sent to Guam), but in OTL he was eventually called back to deal with Taiping rebellion. He could have been called back earlier as a negotiator with the French, and seen in their offer a way to get back at the British eventually.

With a modern navy in the 1850s, China wouldn't so much "become a regional power by late 19th century" as, simply, remain one.

Actually I doubt the navy would be there before 1860 - and given the Chinese's introvert attitude, they may merely keep their navy at a minimum that they think could stand against another Anglo-Chinese war.

 

[Northstar]

Wouldn't that kind of thing generate a bit of friction between China, Britain, France and Japan, possibly leading to a regional conflict in the area?

 

[Hendryk]

Actually I doubt the navy would be there before 1860 - and given the Chinese's introvert attitude, they may merely keep their navy at a minimum that they think could stand against another Anglo-Chinese war.

So they probably would, but after losing another war, at least they'd have a base to build on once the Self-Strengthening Movement begins in earnest. Already having modern ships, a cadre of trained naval personnel and some proficiency with Western technology would be to the advantage of the reformers.

 

[splee]

So they probably would, but after losing another war, at least they'd have a base to build on once the Self-Strengthening Movement begins in earnest. Already having modern ships, a cadre of trained naval personnel and some proficiency with Western technology would be to the advantage of the reformers.

And how would the impact on the neighbouring regions? Would France, seeing China as a potential ally in the East, support China to remain as the hegemon over Korea and Vietnam? It seems some interesting development could follow...

 

[Fearless Leader]

Another thing to keep in mind is how such a treaty would affect French politics, or how French Politics during the time (Second Republic, Second Empire etc.) would effect the exercise of such a policy in the Far East. Perhaps Napoleon III buys Taiwan in exchange for increased technological aid as a result of such a treaty?

At any rate, I'd wager that this kind of Treaty would directly contribute to increased Anglo-French tensions in East Asia as both nations sought control over the coveted China Market. French control over the Bocca Tigris would be especially concerning to the British who just acquired Hong Kong... As a result such tensions could escalate into an all out war between Britain and France, perhaps in the 1860's?

 

[Wendell]

Forget the French for a moment...

What will the effects be for American foreign policy, particularly from the 1850's onward?

 

[splee]

Another thing to keep in mind is how such a treaty would affect French politics, or how French Politics during the time (Second Republic, Second Empire etc.) would effect the exercise of such a policy in the Far East. Perhaps Napoleon III buys Taiwan in exchange for increased technological aid as a result of such a treaty?

At any rate, I'd wager that this kind of Treaty would directly contribute to increased Anglo-French tensions in East Asia as both nations sought control over the coveted China Market. French control over the Bocca Tigris would be especially concerning to the British who just acquired Hong Kong... As a result such tensions could escalate into an all out war between Britain and France, perhaps in the 1860's?

I do not think the Chinese would cede any land to anyone without fighting a war in the mid-19th century. They would rather turn down the proposal. Even at Qing's weakest time, i.e. after the First Sino-Japanese War, China still rejected Italy's suggestion to lease a bay in present-day Zhejiang. Even preferential treatment to the French would be not very probable, since China had already granted most favoured nation status to UK and US before the Treaty of Whampoa.

But Bocca Tigris, which could be leased or granted to the French like Portuguese Macau, is nearer to Canton (the main centre of trade then) and would undermine the role of Hong Kong, just like Hong Kong took the place of Macau in OTL. The British would be very unsatisfied and return to its plan of taking the Zhoushan Islands - and I guess they would find no difficulty in finding a casus belli. The French might deter the English from invading Guangzhou, but given the (very) limited modernization of Chinese navy, the Qing will lose again. However, the performance of the new navy, plus the French role in defending Guangzhou, may encourage alliance and further cooperation between China and France, as well as China's modernization.

And I guess Napoleon III may try to make some use of this alliance... What would he do?