WI President Leonard Wood

[natalieb]

I don't know why some people in this thread think that *any* likely alt-president will be as spineless as Hoover when it comes to Japan. Remember that the US doesn't want Japan to be able to threaten Guam and the Philippines among other things.

 

[bguy]

If it's not Herbert Hoover, the President could respond to provocation in any provocation in Manchuria (if it even still happens TTL) with sanctions and "defensive" naval maneuvers; this, combined with having a naval arms race, combined further with effects all this has on Japan's domestic politics, means that the Second Sino-Japanese War is likely (or at least could well be) averted entirely.

The problem for averting the Second Sino-Japanese War seems to be that while a President Stimson would support joint sanctions with the League of Nations, it's probably not possible to get the League to agree to any sanctions. The British in particular preferred Japan to China at this time as the Japanese were seen as a bulwark against communism in east Asia while Chiang Kai-shek was viewed with suspicion for his friendly relations with the Soviets. So assuming President Stimson is willing to have the U.S. act unilaterally and that he can convince Congress to pass sanctions, would that be enough to deter the Japanese if the British and French don't follow suit?

 

[marathag]

If President Wood does prevent American aid to Russia during the famine, does that endanger the viability of the Soviet state? If not, how is the USSR affected? And what does this mean for Europe 10-20 years down the line?

beyond that aid, I think it would be likely that the Prez would try to block US businesses from dealing with the USSR at all, so no Kahn designed factories making knockoff US makes and models of cars, trucks and Tractors at Gorky, Kharkov and Stalingrad, that were used as templates for other areas later.

That is really huge, as it effects on the USSR to vertically integrate industry the way they did.

Would the USSR turn instead to European designers (German, mostly) like Taut and Gropius for factories?
They didn't think large like Kahn and other US designers did

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So assuming President Stimson is willing to have the U.S. act unilaterally and that he can convince Congress to pass sanctions, would that be enough to deter the Japanese if the British and French don't follow suit?

If it's on top of a number of other changes to the context of 1931, it very well might; plus, if the US is already laying the groundwork for a successful international sanctions by passing their own unilateral ones, that could help the LoN to actually get their act together this year as well.

beyond that aid, I think it would be likely that the Prez would try to block US businesses from dealing with the USSR at all, so no Kahn designed factories making knockoff US makes and models of cars, trucks and Tractors...

The absence of US-Soviet business dealings in the 1920's would indeed have a number of smaller changes all its own. Thinking about possibly bigger effects of these changes -- could smaller tractors lead to even less agricultural productivity than OTL? And would these changes to the Soviet industry (auto and general) affect their armed forces (tank designs, armaments manufacturing, etc)?