WI: Portuguese Madagascar

[Canis Lupis]

Thinking of what to do with Madagascar in my TL. I am probably going to lean towards the British maintaining hold of it, due to souring relations with the French leading to it being less likely they would agree to let the French take it.

However, I just had a crazy thought: what would it take for the Portuguese to take Madagascar circa the 1870s and 1880s? Or, really, any African colonies (beyond what they took IOTL)? Madagascar is my main focus, but figured I would open the question up to the rest of Africa to make this thread worthy.

 

[twovultures]

Thinking of what to do with Madagascar in my TL. I am probably going to lean towards the British maintaining hold of it, due to souring relations with the French leading to it being less likely they would agree to let the French take it.

However, I just had a crazy thought: what would it take for the Portuguese to take Madagascar circa the 1870s and 1880s? Or, really, any African colonies (beyond what they took IOTL)? Madagascar is my main focus, but figured I would open the question up to the rest of Africa to make this thread worthy.

This is a bit difficult. The Portuguese in the Scramble for Africa focused IIRC on consolidating their hold over the African territories they did have (which were quite tenuously held, outside of a narrow coastal strip).

By the 1870's and '80's, France had long ago colonized the islands around Madagascar, and these were incredibly valuable possessions, so it would keep having an interest in the area. However, if the French are unable to dislodge the British from Madagascar by either war or diplomacy, I can see a French diplomat or politician suggesting-almost as a joke-to give Madagascar to the Portuguese, and then the British surprisingly going along with it. If holding Madagascar is too much of a hassle due to threats from either the French or indigenous powers, England and Portugal have a long history as allies, Madagascar is across the channel from Portuguese Mozambique, and in their quest to get African possessions from "Cape to Cairo" giving Madagascar to the Portuguese might be useful to get them to give concessions elsewhere.

On the French side, the Portuguese are not much of a military threat to the islands of Reunion and Bourbon so Portuguese Madagascar is very much preferable to English Madagascar, the Portuguese are at least Catholic so French missionary lobbyists in the homeland might find Portuguese Madagascar an acceptable compromise, and if nothing else snatching Madagascar from the Portuguese at some later date down the line would be easier than snatching it from the Brits. Due to internal French politics, that later date may never come and Madagascar stays in the Portuguese sphere.

 

[TanTheManJam]

This is a bit difficult. The Portuguese in the Scramble for Africa focused IIRC on consolidating their hold over the African territories they did have (which were quite tenuously held, outside of a narrow coastal strip).

By the 1870's and '80's, France had long ago colonized the islands around Madagascar, and these were incredibly valuable possessions, so it would keep having an interest in the area. However, if the French are unable to dislodge the British from Madagascar by either war or diplomacy, I can see a French diplomat or politician suggesting-almost as a joke-to give Madagascar to the Portuguese, and then the British surprisingly going along with it. If holding Madagascar is too much of a hassle due to threats from either the French or indigenous powers, England and Portugal have a long history as allies, Madagascar is across the channel from Portuguese Mozambique, and in their quest to get African possessions from "Cape to Cairo" giving Madagascar to the Portuguese might be useful to get them to give concessions elsewhere.

On the French side, the Portuguese are not much of a military threat to the islands of Reunion and Bourbon so Portuguese Madagascar is very much preferable to English Madagascar, the Portuguese are at least Catholic so French missionary lobbyists in the homeland might find Portuguese Madagascar an acceptable compromise, and if nothing else snatching Madagascar from the Portuguese at some later date down the line would be easier than snatching it from the Brits. Due to internal French politics, that later date may never come and Madagascar stays in the Portuguese sphere.

Portugal might get the offer for minor concessions in Guinea and Madagascar to give up the Pink Map. It would be more like "we're giving this to you, now shut up". The Portuguese monarchy would still be unpopular, but they could have the chance to turn their image around. Perhaps once Luis Filipe becomes king he turns the country into more of a militarist one, giving the country some teeth to show during ww1. The war may be the the deciding factor of if the monarchy stays, the best way for this to happen is Portugal solely focusing on the African front and not sending troops to the meatgrinder in France. This could be seen as a betrayal by Britain and France but they really couldn't afford a war with this stronger Portugal who will be a problem if they were to join the central powers.

From the war, if Portugal gains some of German South Western Africa they will have an excuse for the war (at least to its citizens). Hey, at least there's no dictatorship, just a lot of funds used to put down rebellions, though I'm sure a stronger military will discourage them from popping up suddenly.