WI: Portugal-Castille Union?

[Miguel Lanius]

João II taking over Castille?

Yeah, its OVER for the Castillean nobility. This is the guy who once stripped all nobles of Portugal from their titles, and then told them he would give them back... if they kissed his ring.
This man is King Chad. The man was a machine. He will make Castille his bitch.

This is an A B S O L U T E L Y H A L A L scenario.

Possible consequences:

- With Spanish manpower, I suspect the Luso-Castilleans will absolutely take over the Indian ocean.

- Europe: "Spain who?" The Portuguese policy towards Europe was pretty much "Play nice in Europe". Spain was far more involved in European politics. I suspect it will be the Portuguese foreign policy here, with an additional "Keep France out of Iberia" mandate. This favours an alliance with England.

We might see occasional Luso-Castillean wars against France just to keep them out... or alliances and marriages so that both lose one enemy in their borders. We might see more French focus in Italy instead.

- What happens to Aragon? Peninsular unification is a serious possibility. Another possibility is that Portugal-Castela keeps Aragon as a buffer against France, with the possibility of Aragon being allowed the Mediterranean (except some extra Reconquista land for Portucastille).

- Could we have a Luso-English tordesillas instead?

- Alternatively, with no Tordesillas, the entire situation might be far more chaotic with no order to who gets what besides "if you keep it its yours". The Luso-Castilleans will absolutely dominate colonization.

- No Colombo. Ever notice that unlike Americans and the Spanish, who really like Colombo, the Lusitanics don't care about him? Why is that? Because in portuguese/brazilian historiography, Colombo is considered insignificant. His calculations were wrong, and the Portuguese knew.

- How is colonization going to go? No idea. I don't think the Mesoamerican kingdoms will be conquered, but they will be certainly traded with. Conquest of Mesoamerica and the Incans was an anomaly. Rather, the Portuguese will trade with them for gold and silver and natural goods, and will sell them what useful goods they feel like. Eventually, thanks to plague, disorder and such, Portucastille will conquer or vassalize these realms. Aztecs more probable, the Incans might never be conquered.

- I suspect the areas of OTL Argentina, Bahia and the Caribbean will be the first colonization centers.

- There is also the rather real prospect of an actual Reconquista in the Maghreb. That will depend on Ottoman power, too.

 

[Lusitania]

João II taking over Castille?

Yeah, its OVER for the Castillean nobility. This is the guy who once stripped all nobles of Portugal from their titles, and then told them he would give them back... if they kissed his ring.
This man is King Chad. The man was a machine. He will make Castille his bitch.

Then he would be the perfect “Mad king” to break Castile in multitude of smaller kingdoms and then offer new titles to those who swear loyalty to him.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

That is an interesting possibility. But I don't think a Portuguese-Castillan union is possible without a war, especially not when this scenario sees João II become jure uxoris king of Castile, with an heir of his set to become full king. He would not get along with the Castillan aristocracy, and sooner or later they would rise in rebellion against him. If Isabella was unavailable, they would just someone else to claim the throne (someone further down the succession line or maybe a bastard). The reason why most personal unions turn out to be short-lived is because convenient marriages don't solve everything. The Castillan nobility is bound to be in conflict with the Portuguese ruling classes, and especially with the Portuguese crown.

I'm sure there would be conflict, but if Juana is by this point the sole, official heir to Enrique and Isabel/la as the next closest claimant is out of the picture in England, will the Castilian nobles have an adequate rival claimant that could garner the legitimacy and support that Isabel did when she was fighting for that claim in OTL? Isabel could conceivably raise an army with English support if Edward is willing to fight for her claim, but England is still having problems with their own succession wars and Edward likely won't be able to launch even a small expedition lest he risk a new Lancastrian uprising. Does Portugal have an alliance with France at this point? Because if they do, you're looking at a Castilian nobility trying to scramble for any kind of international support for their weak claimant in the face of what would be THE legitimate claimant in Juana backed by the might of Portugal and possibly France. Sure, the Isabella side did win the war in OTL, but that was because they had the full backing of Aragon, due to Fernando's marriage to the competent, capable, and charismatic Isabel, perceived as the best choice between her and a 13 year old girl. It's not the case in TTL, where it's Juana against any other number of pretenders.

And as someone else mentioned, Joao is a hardass. He would hold all the cards here in a civil war against the Castilian nobility. I would expect plenty of them to defect to his side if he looks stronger.

 

[isabella]

Without Isabella most likely John II and Ferdinand of Aragon will claim Castile for themselves (as they were Trastámaras and Juana will be considered illegitimate under any circumstance. Most likely we will need a totally different POD. Maybe Alfonso of Castile (aka Isabella’s brother) survive, marry la Beltraneja as was programmed and their only heir is a daughter (call her Isabel Juana after her grandmothers) who marry Alfonso of Portugal (aka the son of João). Let Juana and Alfonso die early enough and João taking control of Castile in name of his son and daughter-in-law

 

[Ivan Lupo]

Without Isabella most likely John II and Ferdinand of Aragon will claim Castile for themselves (as they were Trastámaras and Juana will be considered illegitimate under any circumstance. Most likely we will need a totally different POD. Maybe Alfonso of Castile (aka Isabella’s brother) survive, marry la Beltraneja as was programmed and their only heir is a daughter (call her Isabel Juana after her grandmothers) who marry Alfonso of Portugal (aka the son of João). Let Juana and Alfonso die early enough and João taking control of Castile in name of his son and daughter-in-law

If Juana were to be considered illegitimate, then the Castilian nobles would be completely screwed if Fernando or Afonso now come to realize they can go after a fractured, leaderless Castile. Therefore, I imagine in these circumstances without Isabella in the picture that the nobles will have to back Juana and regard her as legitimate if they want any chance at maintaining Castile's sovereignty and not just be immediately overrun by Portuguese or Aragonese armies. So legitimate or not, it's in their best interest to back Juana and regard her as legitimate, unless they can put up the money to help fund Isabella's potential forces to back her own claim. That probably isn't happening at this point if she's in England and Edward is busy with more Lancastrians. A potential son of Edward and Isabella would be useful, but beyond that, they would need back Juana fully and shop a marriage to her to whomever they feel can guarantee their rights and priveleges.

Touching on Alfonso of Castile....if he survives and outlives Enrique, who presumably dies more or less on time per OTL, then what use would any of these nobles, or Alfonso for that matter, have for Juana. At that point, Juana's illegitimacy will definitely be brought up and I promise you that most of the nobility will support an of age legitimate male claimant over a possibly illegitimate tweenage girl and there will likely be no war whatsoever because there would be no point to one. Alfonso would guarantee Castilian independence just by being alive and on the throne and it takes any immediate union right off the table. Juana likely finds herself in a convent, because neither Afonso or Fernando would risk war with Castile for her rights over that of a royal infante. His immediate supporters are instead scrambling to find him a marriage as soon as possible to continue the lineage and Castile has a strong alliance with England but virtue of Isabella's TTL marriage to Edward. (On a tangent, King Alfonso will need a bride and his sister's husband is favoring an alliance with Burgundy. Mary of Burgundy, who's father is still alive so far since it's not 1477 yet and could yet be butterflied into further life past his OTL death, is an attractive bride and could be available to him if....the price is right)

My point is though, a surviving Alfonso who is producing heirs basically prevents any kind of union happening and keeps Castile, Portugal, Navarre, Aragon, and Granada immediately independent and separate from one another. Any potential union wouldn't happen until much further down the line, if at all. Both he and Isabella need to be out of the picture for a Castile-Portugal union to even have a slight chance of happening.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The combined kingdom might be called Lusitana, after the Roman province of Lusitania, as the united kingdom of Castile and Aragon became Espana, after the Roman province of Hispania.

IMHO there is no Iberian interest in Columbus' project or any other voyages directly into the west. Portugal already has lucrative operations down the west coast of Africa, and by 1492 access to the Indies. They will eventually discover Brazil, and explore the New World from there, but as a sideshow. It would be interesting to see who gets to Mesoamerica and collects the gold and silver there.

Also, the Euro disease wave may pass through Mesoamerica long before any actual Europeans. By the time Europeans do get there, the population may have stabilized and started to recover.

 

[isabella]

If Juana were to be considered illegitimate, then the Castilian nobles would be completely screwed if Fernando or Afonso now come to realize they can go after a fractured, leaderless Castile. Therefore, I imagine in these circumstances without Isabella in the picture that the nobles will have to back Juana and regard her as legitimate if they want any chance at maintaining Castile's sovereignty and not just be immediately overrun by Portuguese or Aragonese armies. So legitimate or not, it's in their best interest to back Juana and regard her as legitimate, unless they can put up the money to help fund Isabella's potential forces to back her own claim. That probably isn't happening at this point if she's in England and Edward is busy with more Lancastrians. A potential son of Edward and Isabella would be useful, but beyond that, they would need back Juana fully and shop a marriage to her to whomever they feel can guarantee their rights and priveleges.

Touching on Alfonso of Castile....if he survives and outlives Enrique, who presumably dies more or less on time per OTL, then what use would any of these nobles, or Alfonso for that matter, have for Juana. At that point, Juana's illegitimacy will definitely be brought up and I promise you that most of the nobility will support an of age legitimate male claimant over a possibly illegitimate tweenage girl and there will likely be no war whatsoever because there would be no point to one. Alfonso would guarantee Castilian independence just by being alive and on the throne and it takes any immediate union right off the table. Juana likely finds herself in a convent, because neither Afonso or Fernando would risk war with Castile for her rights over that of a royal infante. His immediate supporters are instead scrambling to find him a marriage as soon as possible to continue the lineage and Castile has a strong alliance with England but virtue of Isabella's TTL marriage to Edward. (On a tangent, King Alfonso will need a bride and his sister's husband is favoring an alliance with Burgundy. Mary of Burgundy, who's father is still alive so far since it's not 1477 yet and could yet be butterflied into further life past his OTL death, is an attractive bride and could be available to him if....the price is right)

My point is though, a surviving Alfonso who is producing heirs basically prevents any kind of union happening and keeps Castile, Portugal, Navarre, Aragon, and Granada immediately independent and separate from one another. Any potential union wouldn't happen until much further down the line, if at all. Both he and Isabella need to be out of the picture for a Castile-Portugal union to even have a slight chance of happening.

Point is who a surviving Alfonso would be already married to Juana as Enrique would see the wedding before confirming his half-brother as heir (the OTL pact recognized Alfonso as Prince of Asturias under the condition of his wedding to Juana la Beltraneja)

 

[Ivan Lupo]

Point is who a surviving Alfonso would be already married to Juana as Enrique would see the wedding before confirming his half-brother as heir (the OTL pact recognized Alfonso as Prince of Asturias under the condition of his wedding to Juana la Beltraneja)

Are you talking about the agreement that Henry himself reneged on first to back Juana's claim shortly after civil war broke out in '64? Because if you are, then for what reason would Alfonso and his supporters even bother honoring that particular agreement. Furthermore, you would also need to butterfly away Henry's divorce from Juana's mother, which incidentally removed Juana from the succession as the divorce, due to Joan of Portugal's alleged further infidelity with her nephew that also caused her marriage to Joan to have never been legal. This is what put Isabella ahead of Juana in OTL, during the Treaty of The Bulls of Guisando.

After Henry reneged, his opponents symbolically deposed him and "crowned" Alfonso as a rival king, who "ruled" until his OTL death in 1468. So no, he had no reason to hold onto his own end of the bargain to marry Juana anymore when his half-brother acted so stupidly in reneging on the deal in the first place.

But let's say for whatever reason, a surviving Alfonso marries Juana before Henry ends up dying, keeping up his end of the agreement that his half-brother had already reneged on. If this happens close to when Henry actually died in 1474, Juana is far too young for the wedding to be consummated, so Alfonso seeks and is granted an annulment on the grounds of consanguinity so that he can make a stronger marriage. For Juana to ever have a realistic chance of sitting on that throne, either Alfonso and Isabella have to be completely out of the way, or her father needs to live long enough to see his daughter married and become pregnant to further solidify her claim.

 

[Mister Mister]

I wonder, why didn't the Portuguese first secured the alliance with the French, and then moved against Castille? ( with the French attacking Aragon )
Could that be a good POD?

 

[isabella]

Are you talking about the agreement that Henry himself reneged on first to back Juana's claim shortly after civil war broke out in '64? Because if you are, then for what reason would Alfonso and his supporters even bother honoring that particular agreement. Furthermore, you would also need to butterfly away Henry's divorce from Juana's mother, which incidentally removed Juana from the succession as the divorce, due to Joan of Portugal's alleged further infidelity with her nephew that also caused her marriage to Joan to have never been legal. This is what put Isabella ahead of Juana in OTL, during the Treaty of The Bulls of Guisando.

After Henry reneged, his opponents symbolically deposed him and "crowned" Alfonso as a rival king, who "ruled" until his OTL death in 1468. So no, he had no reason to hold onto his own end of the bargain to marry Juana anymore when his half-brother acted so stupidly in reneging on the deal in the first place.

But let's say for whatever reason, a surviving Alfonso marries Juana before Henry ends up dying, keeping up his end of the agreement that his half-brother had already reneged on. If this happens close to when Henry actually died in 1474, Juana is far too young for the wedding to be consummated, so Alfonso seeks and is granted an annulment on the grounds of consanguinity so that he can make a stronger marriage. For Juana to ever have a realistic chance of sitting on that throne, either Alfonso and Isabella have to be completely out of the way, or her father needs to live long enough to see his daughter married and become pregnant to further solidify her claim.

The validity or annulment of the wedding between Henry IV and Juana has little to do with the legitimacy of their daughter and her claim (the OTL annulment was for consanguinity not infidelity and usually children already born from such weddings were still confirmed as legitimate in the annulment).
Juana’s legitimacy was never called in question for the validity of their parent’s wedding but because almost nobody believed who she was really daughter of the King. Juana’s position will be always unstable and that was the reason for which Isabella was named as heiress of her brother in that treaty... Juana and Alfonso’s wedding pact can were well be renowned in a successive peace treaty if he lived longer.
And about your earlier post Ferdinand of Aragon as King is still the best option of Henry IV’s enemies in the nobility if both Isabella and Alfonso are removed from consideration. Recognizing la Beltraneja as legitimate princess and heiress is something who the majority of Henry IV’s opposition is totally against.

 

[Mister Mister]

I wonder, why didn't the Portuguese first secured the alliance with the French, and then moved against Castille? ( with the French attacking Aragon )
Could that be a good POD?

Anyone?