By this question, I don't mean that Wladyslaw Jagiello never becomes king of Poland, but rather that the thrones remain independent of one another rather than in the PU of OTL.
There were several instances where this could've happened, but fortunately/unfortunately in all the instances, the grand duke of Lithuania became king of Poland.
The first was the partition after the death of Wladyslaw Jagiello. His eldest son, Wladyslaw III, got the throne of Poland, and his younger son, Casimir, became grand duke of Lithuania. Unfortunately, Wladyslaw III was killed at Varna without issue and so Grand Duke Casimir became King Casimir IV.
In the 1480s, that same Casimir again attempted to split his crowns, in 1483, nominating his fourth son, Alexander, to the Lithuanian throne. Alexander married Elena Ivanovna of Russia (with prior engagements to both Elisabeth of Denmark and Anna of Brandenburg IIRC), and the stage seemed to set for a Lithuanian breakaway. Sadly, not only did @Jan Olbracht die before he could marry and leave issue (assuming he ever intended to do either)- which led to Alexander becoming king of Poland- but both of Elena's pregnancies ended in miscarriage.
ISTR that, there was talk that @Zygmunt Stary wanted to become grand duke of Lithuania- once Alexander became king of Poland- and could've potentially sired a cadet line (assuming Elena carried a pregnancy to term that was both male and survived infancy).
But what would've been the ramifications of Poland and Lithuania remaining as independent lines under the same family- rather like the Bourbons in France and Spain, or Spain and Naples (hopefully without all the inbreeding)? How would Lithuania have developed separately from Poland? Could it have withstood Russia on its own? Or would it have eventually been gobbled up as Poland was OTL.
@Augenis @raharris1973 @marcinL @Valena
There were several instances where this could've happened, but fortunately/unfortunately in all the instances, the grand duke of Lithuania became king of Poland.
The first was the partition after the death of Wladyslaw Jagiello. His eldest son, Wladyslaw III, got the throne of Poland, and his younger son, Casimir, became grand duke of Lithuania. Unfortunately, Wladyslaw III was killed at Varna without issue and so Grand Duke Casimir became King Casimir IV.
In the 1480s, that same Casimir again attempted to split his crowns, in 1483, nominating his fourth son, Alexander, to the Lithuanian throne. Alexander married Elena Ivanovna of Russia (with prior engagements to both Elisabeth of Denmark and Anna of Brandenburg IIRC), and the stage seemed to set for a Lithuanian breakaway. Sadly, not only did @Jan Olbracht die before he could marry and leave issue (assuming he ever intended to do either)- which led to Alexander becoming king of Poland- but both of Elena's pregnancies ended in miscarriage.
ISTR that, there was talk that @Zygmunt Stary wanted to become grand duke of Lithuania- once Alexander became king of Poland- and could've potentially sired a cadet line (assuming Elena carried a pregnancy to term that was both male and survived infancy).
But what would've been the ramifications of Poland and Lithuania remaining as independent lines under the same family- rather like the Bourbons in France and Spain, or Spain and Naples (hopefully without all the inbreeding)? How would Lithuania have developed separately from Poland? Could it have withstood Russia on its own? Or would it have eventually been gobbled up as Poland was OTL.
@Augenis @raharris1973 @marcinL @Valena
