WI: Phocas Triumphant

[Sertorius126]

Yes, I think you are right (in fact, it would be interesting, since the parallels between this and his own life would be clear - the legitimate king is forced to abandon his throne in favour of an upstart military commander and seeks protection to the court of the ruler of the other great power of the East). What I am saying is that perhaps Phokas manages to neutralise the heirs and thus prevent them from trying to escape to Persia, in order to make it more possible to avoid a war erupting right after Maurice's death.

Also, again, I agree that Khosrau most likely wanted war - he must have viewed the concessions he made to Maurice (which basically undid almost 30 years of policy and wars) rather excessive later on. But without Maurice or the heirs, he might have waited for some time and struck one or two years after OTL, which could give the empire some more time to bolster its defences (if Phokas scales back the operations against the Avars, he might move part of the forces Maurice had transferred to Europe after the peace with the Persians back home, meaning that the Eastern armies would be in a somewhat better shape).

Yeah but why would he wait?

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Yeah but why would he wait?

Mostly preparations, because the empire's eastern territories are better defended, as the civil war of 602-605 is most likely avoided and perhaps Phokas transfers some units from the Balkans back to Asia (at least that's what I believe).

 

[NedStark]

Yes, I think you are right (in fact, it would be interesting, since the parallels between this and his own life would be clear - the legitimate king is forced to abandon his throne in favour of an upstart military commander and seeks protection to the court of the ruler of the other great power of the East). What I am saying is that perhaps Phokas manages to neutralise the heirs and thus prevent them from trying to escape to Persia, in order to make it more possible to avoid a war erupting right after Maurice's death.

Also, again, I agree that Khosrau most likely wanted war - he must have viewed the concessions he made to Maurice (which basically undid almost 30 years of policy and wars) rather excessive later on. But without Maurice or the heirs, he might have waited for some time and struck one or two years after OTL, which could give the empire some more time to bolster its defences (if Phokas scales back the operations against the Avars, he might move part of the forces Maurice had transferred to Europe after the peace with the Persians back home, meaning that the Eastern armies would be in a somewhat better shape).

Let's say he manages to neutralize Maurice's heirs. A competent Phokas can do something with the Lombards, specifically the duchies of Benevento and Spoleto before the Persians invade - which were more of strategic threats to Byzantine Italy than the Northern Lombard kingdom.

 

[Sertorius126]

Let's say he manages to neutralize Maurice's heirs. A competent Phokas can do something with the Lombards, specifically the duchies of Benevento and Spoleto before the Persians invade - which were more of strategic threats to Byzantine Italy than the Northern Lombard kingdom.

That’d be nearly impossible. The empire was facing enough threats as it was, focusing on peripheries would have been counterproductive in such a time. Maurice himself established the Exarchates, largely independent territorial units, exactly because he couldn’t deal with the western territories himself.

 

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

Let's say he manages to neutralize Maurice's heirs. A competent Phokas can do something with the Lombards, specifically the duchies of Benevento and Spoleto before the Persians invade - which were more of strategic threats to Byzantine Italy than the Northern Lombard kingdom.

As Sertorius said, the empire faces many threats on many fronts - Beneventum and Lombard expansionism are going to be a minor issue at best. Maurice didn't manage to do much, although he had secured peace with the Persians, which has freed up men for service elsewhere in the empire. Phokas won't have even this advantage, and between wars in the East and Avar raids, he won't do much.

Now you could perhaps prevent trouble in Byzantine Italy by making the exarch Kallinikus not have this idea of his to abduct the duke of Parma and his wife, who was a daughter of the Lombard king in order to secure better terms during the renegotiation of the truce between the two sides (it had ended in 601). Doing this means that the Lombards don't ally with the Avars and destroy, and that they don't destroy Patavium, Cremona and Mantua; perhaps if Phokas replaces Kallinikus with a somewhat better commander and he has some troops to spare for Italy, the Byzantines could maintain their positions in northern Italy for longer; but apart from that, there is very little that could be done.