WI: Order 191 not lost

[glpoisson]

Not the Turtledove version (but it's been a long time since I read those so if I repeat any of his TL points it's not my intention).

Probably no battle of Sharpsburg/Antietam as McClellan does not know where and in what strength Lee is.

Lincoln finally forces McClellan to move after Lee when he begins depleting Pennsylvania of food and destroying anything of value to the USA.

The need for Lee to live off the land to some extent and the road layout all points to the area of Gettysburg as a probable battle site.

Lee has Longstreet and Jackson as subordinate generals, both capable and well accustomed to the style of Lee's overall command, Stuart probably available for reconnaissance and McClellan as an opponent historically favoring his chances of victory.

Unless McClennan exhibits heretofore uncharacteristic boldness and speed in maneuvering and concentrating his divisions Lee may have a numerical advantage should a pitched battle occur.

Where would such a battle occur? Would the outcome be a strong CSA victory, a pyrrhic one, a USA victory due to better knowledge of the terrain and fighting on 'home soil' or another outcome more likely than the ones listed?

 

[Elfwine]

Lincoln finally forces McClellan to move after Lee when he begins depleting Pennsylvania of food and destroying anything of value to the USA.

The need for Lee to live off the land to some extent and the road layout all points to the area of Gettysburg as a probable battle site.

Just to focus on this: McClellan's army had already begun poking around after Lee by this point - as in that's how the Lost Order was uncovered in the first place. I don't think Lee is getting far into Pennsylvania - before some kind of contact with the Army of the Potomac, especially as it is known he is attacking Harper's Ferry.

Gettysburg makes sense from where his army was in that campaign, but I'm not sure it would lead there from where it is (or the Army of the Potomac is) here:

Antietam: Campaign Map, 7 September 1862

antietam.aotw.org

Where would such a battle occur? Would the outcome be a strong CSA victory, a pyrrhic one, a USA victory due to better knowledge of the terrain and fighting on 'home soil' or another outcome more likely than the ones listed?

My suspicion is "in Maryland" (see above map on why), and if a Confederate win nothing more than Pyrrhic.

 

[SWS]

The Battle of South Mountain is inevitable by the afternoon of the 13th. Both D.H. Hill and Longstreet, whose divisions, supported by Stuart's troopers, according to the language of Special Order 191, occupied Boonsboro, and not Hagerstown near the Pennsylvania border as suggested by prior intelligence, conjectured that without the Lost Order, McClellan might've elected to concentrate against Crampton's and Brownsville Pass on his left rather than Turner's and Fox's on the 14th for the relief of Harpers Ferry.