Coming out of Iowa, everyone pretty much thought Obama had New Hampshire locked down - leading in every poll once he received the Iowa bump. However, as we know, Hillary managed to eke out a victory and revived her dying campaign.
What if, though, Obama turned around and won New Hampshire - say by the margins the polls suggested (so, averaged out, Obama wins by 8 points). How does that impact the 2008 race?
Does the race pretty much end there? Two blowout losses, Obama potentially winning in Nevada roughly 10 days after his win in New Hampshire (he lost the caucus by only five points) would certainly put Hillary back on her heels more than in reality going into South Carolina. Of course, that's where things really took a turn for the worse - as Bill Clinton made some comments about Jesse Jackson winning South Carolina and it amounting to nothing. In the end, Obama crushed Hillary and really took control of the race from that point forward. Of course, the race got even more toxic in the coming weeks and months, but if Hillary is already down and out after three-straight losses, and expecting a fourth in South Carolina, which would certainly happen, does the nastiness even occur?
Bill Clinton potentially doesn't make the remark. Obama handily wins South Carolina. Hillary remains defiant and decides to stick through to Super Tuesday - but Obama, with clear momentum, pretty much wraps up the nomination with absolute victory across the country. A couple days later, Hillary concedes and the race ends. Right?
I mean, Hillary was already bleeding entering Super Tuesday and she had managed to save her campaign with wins in New Hampshire and Nevada. Losses there, though, would certainly doom her even more and while she may win a handful of states, Obama certainly would've come out as the clear winner.
Just like that, the nomination is pretty much wrapped up before any of the major lobs are tossed by either campaign. So, while division, it's not nearly as played up, Hillary folks are given much more time to rally behind the idea of Obama being the nominee. The divide between Obama and Bill Clinton doesn't seem as apparent and there is no need to push for a unification theme without a long, and drawn out primary campaign, as the party energizes around Obama. This also means Bill's name isn't tainted within the black community, as well, since he doesn't make racially tinged comments.
So, Obama walks to the nomination this go around. Does Rev. Wright come out in March? Maybe - but there would only be a general election at that point and not one many people would be focused on so early. If those videos (and do we know who leaked 'em?) aren't aired in March, thus not allowing Obama his defining moment, would that be something that blows up later in the campaign and potentially hurts Obama even more than it did during the Democratic Primary?
Does Obama look harder at putting Clinton on the ticket since their relationship, should, presumably, be better in this reality?
Without that division, McCain doesn't need to pick Sarah Palin to make a play for the female vote. So, who does he go with? Does Obama win in a bigger landslide and if he doesn't pick Hillary for VP, does he still go with Biden? Does he still ask Hillary to be his Secretary of State?
Does it impact Obama's first term at all, since so many people speculated that A) Obama might drop Biden for Hillary and B) Hillary might primary Obama. Neither would be a real big issue without that division, right?
In the end, does nothing change? Could Obama losing New Hampshire harden him up and maybe, winning it, makes him soft and he goes down to McCain in November - especially if McCain picks a competent running-mate?
What if, though, Obama turned around and won New Hampshire - say by the margins the polls suggested (so, averaged out, Obama wins by 8 points). How does that impact the 2008 race?
Does the race pretty much end there? Two blowout losses, Obama potentially winning in Nevada roughly 10 days after his win in New Hampshire (he lost the caucus by only five points) would certainly put Hillary back on her heels more than in reality going into South Carolina. Of course, that's where things really took a turn for the worse - as Bill Clinton made some comments about Jesse Jackson winning South Carolina and it amounting to nothing. In the end, Obama crushed Hillary and really took control of the race from that point forward. Of course, the race got even more toxic in the coming weeks and months, but if Hillary is already down and out after three-straight losses, and expecting a fourth in South Carolina, which would certainly happen, does the nastiness even occur?
Bill Clinton potentially doesn't make the remark. Obama handily wins South Carolina. Hillary remains defiant and decides to stick through to Super Tuesday - but Obama, with clear momentum, pretty much wraps up the nomination with absolute victory across the country. A couple days later, Hillary concedes and the race ends. Right?
I mean, Hillary was already bleeding entering Super Tuesday and she had managed to save her campaign with wins in New Hampshire and Nevada. Losses there, though, would certainly doom her even more and while she may win a handful of states, Obama certainly would've come out as the clear winner.
Just like that, the nomination is pretty much wrapped up before any of the major lobs are tossed by either campaign. So, while division, it's not nearly as played up, Hillary folks are given much more time to rally behind the idea of Obama being the nominee. The divide between Obama and Bill Clinton doesn't seem as apparent and there is no need to push for a unification theme without a long, and drawn out primary campaign, as the party energizes around Obama. This also means Bill's name isn't tainted within the black community, as well, since he doesn't make racially tinged comments.
So, Obama walks to the nomination this go around. Does Rev. Wright come out in March? Maybe - but there would only be a general election at that point and not one many people would be focused on so early. If those videos (and do we know who leaked 'em?) aren't aired in March, thus not allowing Obama his defining moment, would that be something that blows up later in the campaign and potentially hurts Obama even more than it did during the Democratic Primary?
Does Obama look harder at putting Clinton on the ticket since their relationship, should, presumably, be better in this reality?
Without that division, McCain doesn't need to pick Sarah Palin to make a play for the female vote. So, who does he go with? Does Obama win in a bigger landslide and if he doesn't pick Hillary for VP, does he still go with Biden? Does he still ask Hillary to be his Secretary of State?
Does it impact Obama's first term at all, since so many people speculated that A) Obama might drop Biden for Hillary and B) Hillary might primary Obama. Neither would be a real big issue without that division, right?
In the end, does nothing change? Could Obama losing New Hampshire harden him up and maybe, winning it, makes him soft and he goes down to McCain in November - especially if McCain picks a competent running-mate?
