WI no Lenin or Leninism

Suppose the guy either died by 1901, was not born, died as a kid or was born a girl.

I think that this probably prevents the Bolshevik coup (AKA Great October Revolution).

I assume that there is still some kind of radical change. Maybe the Germans offer more reasonable terms.

Would a radical revolutionary government of some kind survive?

If not might some kind of far right movement take charge?
 
Considering the Bolsheviks were really the only Russian political group with the stomach to make a Brest-Litovsk Treaty (and even then they were heavily divided), things will be difficult for both Russia and Germany. The RSDLP will still be a party without Lenin, but will lack a lot of his contributions like Vanguardism and, assuming other events continue as usual without too many butterflies, a Russian Republic of some shade of leftism (RSDLP+LeftSRs I'd imagine) will probably fight "a Revolutionary War" (á la Bukharin IOTL) against the Germans although I suspect some sort of rough ceasefire would have to come into effect as Russia really was in no state to continue the war on its own and Germany could hardly afford to advance or continue the war with its illusory need for secure Ukrainian grain, more troops in the West, and economic relief on the home front. It's probable Russia still has some sort of Civil War with its would-be Caesars, but the form would be quite different from IOTL.

Essentially, it hinges a lot on how things turn out but there are aspects that would happen with or without Lenin. It also depends on how much you subscribe to historical theories of economic determinism, but @Dan1988 has talked about the Politarist conception of Russian history proposed by Andrei Grinëv which, for this timeline, means the resulting state will likely still have a heavy hand in the economy no matter how she ends up due to the realities of Russian state and administration, resource extraction, economic tradition, etc.
 
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I wonder if Germany realised it could get a Peace treaty if it were not so extreme as Brest Litovsk might they have offered it.
Maybe without war Russia could sell food to Central powers
 
I've considered similar things before - such as a WI the Germans simply decide not to allow passage for Lenin and his 31 comrades back to Russia, of if the train gets "stuck" before it makes it very far from Zurich and he winds up effectively sidelined in Switzerland when the shit really starts hitting the fan in Russia... I still think the Bolsheviks would've wound up on top of the fray. Question is, without Lenin to hold everything together, who would come out on top? I haven't made my mind up on that one yet :evilsmile:
Now, with no Lenin as far back as 1901, that would mean that a significant portion of his contributions to the "canon" of Marxist revolutionary thought would've never been made... with 16 years between 1901 and the February Revolution (assuming that would've happened with or without Lenin), an awful lot could've happened. Mensheviks or "Esers" come out on top? Whole revolutionary movement weakened to the point where the Cadets or some other more conservative party comes to the fore of the Provisional Government, maybe even reinstates the Czar (or "a" Czar) at least in a ceremonial function? Brest-Litovsk or no Brest-Litovsk? Way too many butterflies for me to want to try to net on this one...
 
To be blunt, completely removing Lenin from the equation, although eliminating one of the titans of Russian Marxism, will not prevent the February Revolution or change the 1905 revolution. It may prevent the historical split of the RSDLP, but make no mistake, that split almost certainly will occur, the divisions within the party are just too great to be completely papered over, but the split itself will look quite different than OTL. I'm just spitballing, but I can see a fair number of OTL Bolsheviks splitting alongside people who were historically Mensheviks like Martov. I'm especially thinking of Kamanev and Zinoveiv here, since OTL they were perhaps the most "parlimentary" of the Bolsheviks. I still don't expect the Provisional Government to survive, on the eve of the October Revolution there was frantic political maneuvering by large numbers of even the "moderate" socialists who had henceforth backed it to force the PG to negotiate peace with the Germans, convene the Constituent Assembly as rapidly as possible, and immediately carry out large scale land reform. Historically this failed because a group of Bolshevik sailors seized the lines of communication literally two hours before this was decided. Even so, Martov almost succeeded in getting the 2nd Congress of Soviets to support a pan-socialist coalition before Lenin and Trotsky's arrival and the seizure of the Winter Palace changed the calculus and the mood. The Provisional Government is therefore probably fucked no matter what, because Lenin had little impact on the fundamental conditions which rapidly transformed the Bolsheviks from a minority into a plurality, and one with disproportional support from the soldiers. Lenin or no the incompetence of Russian liberals and dogmatism of the Right-SRs and Right-Mensheviks are going to create a political climate in which their unelected government cannot survive.

I think the third option in the OP is interesting though, because it wouldn't remove Lenin from radical politics, just reduce his relative importance. One of the founders of Russia's first Marxist/Social Democratic organization was a woman who murdered a tsarist official and convinced her jury to acquit her. Kollontai, who is my current avatar, was a prominent Bolshevik and one of the leaders of the Workers' Opposition. Maria Spiridonova was perhaps the most famous Left-Socialist Revolitionary and a celebrated terrorist. So clearly women could and did participate prominently in radical politics, albeit at substantially lower rates among the higher echelons. I'm actually not sure what the result would be to be honest.

TL;DR Lenin was important, but his importance is overexaggerated even by his detractors partially thanks to the Soviet Lenin cult, and partially due to Great Man Theory.
 
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