WI: No Jin

[Hegemon]

The Jin Dynasty (1115-1234) was originally an obscure Tungus tribe on the fringes of Liao, coming suddenly onto the world stage when, under Aguda, they shattered the Liao and took Kaifeng in quick succession. What would the effects of a Jin that does not come to be or is destroyed early on? I see two great questions to resolve:

The Liao-Mongol question: the steppe tribes were pretty amicable to Liao, and many looked up to them. Jin never effectively subdued the northern steppe, and instead played different tribes off each other. I’ve also read that the Kara Khitai, a Liao remnant, paved the way for Mongol expansion into and integration of the west. What are the effects of a surviving Liao?

The Song question: If Song retains the north, how does this affect the nation economically, socially, politically, and psychologically? How important is the north? Will retention of the north boost Song confidence or give Song a false sense of security? What is Song’s relationship with neighbors like Xi Xia, Dai Viet, Koryo, and Liao? Will Song ideological development of Neo-Confucianism follow a different path? Will Song still build a standing navy? Will Song open up to, encourage, and seek to control foreign trade?

 

[Richard V]

Jin’s control of north China had to be wrestled away by combined attacks by Mongols in the north and the Southern Song in the south. Had the Song ruled north China they would only have to defend the north and thus have a better chance of success. Without the resources of north China, it’s debatable whether someone like Genghis could expand west as effectively as he did.

 

[Hegemon]

Jin’s control of north China had to be wrestled away by combined attacks by Mongols in the north and the Southern Song in the south. Had the Song ruled north China they would only have to defend the north and thus have a better chance of success. Without the resources of north China, it’s debatable whether someone like Genghis could expand west as effectively as he did.

Good points.

Is it inevitable that Genghis would rise?

 

[schai]

Without Jin, I don't think there would be Mongol. Northern people would be slowly sinicized. Tribes in northern Mongol would eventually adapt or develop a writing system that is similar to Chinese.

Another Northern and Southern Dynasty would appear in Chinese history. After 100 years, mini ice age would force northern stepped and sinicized people to conquer and uniform all China. There would not be any western expansion.

 

[Historyman 14]

Good points.

Is it inevitable that Genghis would rise?

Without Jin, I don't think there would be Mongol. Northern people would be slowly sinicized. Tribes in northern Mongol would eventually adapt or develop a writing system that is similar to Chinese.

Another Northern and Southern Dynasty would appear in Chinese history. After 100 years, mini ice age would force northern stepped and sinicized people to conquer and uniform all China. There would not be any western expansion.

Genghis Khan? Probably. The Mongols, or anyone like them? Not so much.

Genghis and the Mongols didn't come out of nowhere. Mongol success was built on two thousand years of steppe history. You could see instead of the OTL Mongol Empire, you have an Mongol Empire of only Central Asia, maybe Persia, and try for Northen China.

 

[Hegemon]

Genghis Khan? Probably. The Mongols, or anyone like them? Not so much.

Genghis and the Mongols didn't come out of nowhere. Mongol success was built on two thousand years of steppe history. You could see instead of the OTL Mongol Empire, you have an Mongol Empire of only Central Asia, maybe Persia, and try for Northen China.

Though an alt-Mongol rising is quite probable IMO, I am interested in the effects a surviving Liao and Northern Song would have upon it. I know that previous steppe Empires laid the foundation for the Mongols. I have read that the steppe May just have been conducive at that time (being better for horse grazing due to climate fluctuations) as well, and so a perfect storm of climatological, political, and luck factors allowed the Mongols to become as successful as they were. However, I have also read that the Liao were a great influence on the steppe, having fortifications there and the relatively good opinion of the steppe peoples. The Jin, on the other hand, never gained even nominal submission of the steppe and were disliked by the steppe peoples. The Jin also played different tribes off each other, which complicates the situation further. Maybe a different tribe would’ve risen to prominence without Jin. The Khitans has an effect on the Mongols even after they were overthrown. The Kara Khitai, I’ve read, were for a while a major force in Central Asia and set the stage for Mongol domination there. Perhaps without them, expansion to the western steppe is not as swift.

And then there’s the possibility that an Empire could rise from some other part of the steppe (perhaps to the west) though I would say this is not too high.

Lots of possibilities.

 

[schai]

Genghis Khan? Probably. The Mongols, or anyone like them? Not so much.

Genghis and the Mongols didn't come out of nowhere. Mongol success was built on two thousand years of steppe history. You could see instead of the OTL Mongol Empire, you have an Mongol Empire of only Central Asia, maybe Persia, and try for Northen China.

I agree with Hegemon. Liao had a great influence and control over Steppes than Jin.

If Liao was able to suppressed Aguda's rebellion, everything would be back to normal. There would be minor conflicts on steppes, but no major warfares. With Liao as a dominating power on the steppes, Genghis' dad might not get killed. As a result, Genghis would have a different life experience. He might just be a minor bureaucrat who worked for Liao.