WI: No Italo-Turkish war

Snowstalker

Either the Italian anti-war movement is better-organized, the Austrian compromise proposal is accepted by both parties (formal Ottoman control of Libya, de facto Italian control, much like Britain in Egypt), or the Germans manage to keep their allies from going to war with each other. The first butterfly is probably a delayed Balkan War, given that Serbia/Greece/Bulgaria/Montenegro decided to attack Turkey after seeing its performance against Italy. What could that snowball into?
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Very interesting. Without the Italian War to soften up the Ottomans, its almost impossible to believe that the Balkan Wars would have happened or been as successful if they did. Italy did much to weaken the Ottomans up for the Balkan states.

Probably Serbia keeps its focus on the Ottoman Empire. Even if it doesn't and the Sarajevo events occur, its much less likely that Russia would bother with Serbia. She would have been much smaller and weaker and more expendable.
Besides, Austrian expansion into the Balkans would have alarmed the Ottomans (especially after the Bosnia affair). Turkey may have started to fear Austria as much as Russia. Turkey really had bad relations with Austria for many years

If war does break out as in OTL, the Italians would have been much stronger when they intervened as well- not having used up their war stocks and such. Austria would have been a little more hard pressed
 

Richter von Manthofen

Without the Balkans War Austria might not have seen the need to go to war against a weaker Serbia - even if they had killed FF (which might never have happened in teh changed TL) THe Balkan wars gave the Serbs a (definitely earned) confidence to act agaisnt the much larger Austria.

But without the Balkans war the assassination plot would probbably never happened as it did. Princip was trying to enlist during teh Balkans war with the Serbian army, was declined but got the attention of Tankovic. Without the war Tankovic would not know Princip which probably would lead to a different plot (FF was not the only target - tehre were plans against many other Austrian official incuding Count Bertchold and soem others.

Lets assuem an assassination happens - but targets a different personality. FF would speak against a war and likely defuse the situation.
 

kung Zog

yourworstnightmare said:
A PoD could be Italy getting Tunsia (would be pre 1900) and thus not being so desparate to get colonies, thus leaving Libya alone.
Click to expand...

I think this would work the exactly opposite way. With such a "small" colony, sharing a border to a larger territory the willingness, at least in the elite, to extend would be greatly enhanced.
 

lukedalton

kung Zog said:
I think this would work the exactly opposite way. With such a "small" colony, sharing a border to a larger territory the willingness, at least in the elite, to extend would be greatly enhanced.
Click to expand...

Depend, the 'Slap of Tunisi' destroyed the previous policy of avoid direct political/military control of any place and goes for big economic penetration and a protectorate status plus bring home how Italy was isolated on Europe and was a very big factor in her signing the Alliance with Germany and A-H.
If somehow Italy get control of Tunisia (difficult, maybe better relationships with France or/and UK) she can remain a solo player for longer or forge a different alliance altogether.

Returning at the 'No Italo-Turk war' scenario; well internally the situation will be much quiet, after the conflict there were an economic downturn that was exacerbated by the war expediture.
In case of another conflict, first the army will not be in so dire situation so it can partecipate from the beginning (and will not be commanded by Cadorna as his nomination was much due to him being untouched by the 'Lybia debacle'). Second the socialist will not be burned out by their support of the colonial war so there is the much stronger possibility that they will make a stronger united front with the goverment instead of the neutral stance of OTL (basically we don't support but neither oppose the goverment).
Optional, if no big war in Europe erupt by 1916, a second Abyssinia war can start as Ethiopia at the time was engulfed in a big civil war so things can expand.
 
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