WI: No Irish Famine?

[Jonjo]

What if it never happened? the genetic makeup of the US would be significantly altered and Irish culture would be less globally known as it is today, also the IRA would of been less effective as there would be little to no American money supporting it.

What else do you see happening besides obviously a more populated Ireland?

 

[sparky42]

What if it never happened? the genetic makeup of the US would be significantly altered and Irish culture would be less globally known as it is today, also the IRA would of been less effective as there would be little to no American money supporting it.

What else do you see happening besides obviously a more populated Ireland?

Which IRA?

The repercussions of no Famine are huge, Ireland remains the second nation of the UK which would have the potential of changing the voting blocs of Westminster.

The move towards Home Rule would be different, Australia/New Zealand/Argentina all would have different population make ups at a guess.

Really the butterflies would be massive.

 

[Elfwine]

Although I think the US might be the least effected - not uneffected by any means, but the British Isles (and white Dominions) will be hugely effected.

Question to be asked though. Potato blight at some point seems rather likely given the cause. Would a later famine be dealt with better?

http://botit.botany.wisc.edu/toms_fungi/m2001alt.html

Something that thrives when it's "unusually cool and wet" is going to sooner or latter break out in the British Isles.

 

[KorgusCyborgus]

An earlier potato blight, before there was so much potato dependence, might be one way to do this.

 

[sparky42]

Although I think the US might be the least effected - not uneffected by any means, but the British Isles will be hugely effected.

Question to be asked though. Potato blight at some point seems rather likely given the cause (if memory serves). Would a later famine be dealt with better?

As long as the Irish population relied on the Potato for the main food source Ireland remained vulnerable to a blight occuring, I think there's been studies that have questioned the historic views of the origin of the Blight but I can't remember where the study was done.

One of the problems that came into play in the Famine was the Laissez-Faire approach by the then UK Government, they didn't understand the scale of the issue at the time.

 

[Elfwine]

An earlier potato blight, before there was so much potato dependence, might be one way to do this.

But an earlier blight doesn't rule out a later one.It's not as if this is something that takes particularly odd conditions.

As long as the Irish population relied on the Potato for the main food source Ireland remained vulnerable to a blight occuring, I think there's been studies that have questioned the historic views of the origin of the Blight but I can't remember where the study was done.

One of the problems that came into play in the Famine was the Laissez-Faire approach by the then UK Government, they didn't understand the scale of the issue at the time.

Origin in the sense of where the blight came from, or on the blight (Phytophthora infestans) itself?

I've only done a little reading on it, but it seems like conditions - manmade and natural - practically ensure something goes wrong like this at some point.

 

[Jonjo]

Although I think the US might be the least effected - not uneffected by any means, but the British Isles (and white Dominions) will be hugely effected.

Question to be asked though. Potato blight at some point seems rather likely given the cause. Would a later famine be dealt with better?

http://botit.botany.wisc.edu/toms_fungi/m2001alt.html

Something that thrives when it's "unusually cool and wet" is going to sooner or latter break out in the British Isles.

Irish Americans are the largest demographic behind German Americans in the US because of the diaspora caused by the famine. New York and Boston may as well of been mini Ireland's at one point.

 

[Elfwine]

Irish Americans are the largest demographic behind German Americans in the US because of the diaspora caused by the famine. New York and Boston may as well of been mini Ireland's at one point.

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/facts_for_features_special_editions/cb10-ff04.html

And only 12% of the population. That's substantial to be sure, but the effects are going to be bigger elsewhere.

And Boston and New York never reached even half Irish - maybe a quarter or a third, but "little Ireland" is rather exaggerated.

 

[sparky42]

Origin in the sense of where the blight came from, or on the blight (Phytophthora infestans) itself?

I've only done a little reading on it, but it seems like conditions - manmade and natural - practically ensure something goes wrong like this at some point.

The Strain of the Blight seemed to be wrongly classified, I've only the reports on RTE (Irish news) from a while back but they studied it's DNA and found that it wasn't the strain that had been assumed to have done it.

Certainly given the combinations of conditions, reliance and other issues in Ireland at the time, it was only a matter of time until it happened.

 

[Bee]

The Irish potato crop recovered when they switched to a different type of potato (years later, unfortunately).

If there had been more diversity in the potato crop from the beginning, the blight wouldn't have been devastating and there would have been no widespread famine.

 

[Elfwine]

The Irish potato crop recovered when they switched to a different type of potato (years later, unfortunately).

If there had been more diversity in the potato crop from the beginning, the blight wouldn't have been devastating and there would have been no widespread famine.

Given the huge importance of the potato to the Irish diet, even a lesser crop failure would probably still be ugly.

 

[sparky42]

Given the huge importance of the potato to the Irish diet, even a lesser crop failure would probably still be ugly.

Given that population is only now 2/3s of the Pre Famine numbers I think ugly is an understatement.

The other point is how marginal the areas that people were living in at the peak of population before the Famine. It would also have the potential to impact the Land Reform programs post Famine, which would again alter the entire island.

 

[Elfwine]

Given that population is only now 2/3s of the Pre Famine numbers I think ugly is an understatement.

The other point is how marginal the areas that people were living in at the peak of population before the Famine. It would also have the potential to impact the Land Reform programs post Famine, which would again alter the entire island.

Is that counting Northern Ireland? Just curious.

And do you think that (impact to the Land Reform programs) would be a change for the better, or not so much?

 

[sparky42]

Is that counting Northern Ireland? Just curious.

And do you think that (impact to the Land Reform programs) would be a change for the better, or not so much?

Yeah both are at record high populations and I thought given that we're talking about Famine times it was an acceptable combination.

For the record Northern Ireland is at 1.8 million while the Republic is at 4.5 million.

For the Land Reform, a reduction of the Famine will reduce the evictions that took place (something that still affects the Irish mental attitudes even today), so the Land League and the Land War may not happen as OTL. So how/what Gladstone would have done is up in the air.

Think about the fact that the Land Bill's went from 1870-1906, that's a lot of political capital involved in my view.

 

[Elfwine]

Yeah both are at record high populations and I thought given that we're talking about Famine times it was an acceptable combination.

For the record Northern Ireland is at 1.8 million while the Republic is at 4.5 million.

Thanks. What I know of Irish history is in bits and pieces at best, and essentially is negligible post-1900.

For the Land Reform, a reduction of the Famine will reduce the evictions that took place (something that still affects the Irish mental attitudes even today), so the Land League and the Land War may not happen as OTL. So how/what Gladstone would have done is up in the air.

Think about the fact that the Land Bill's went from 1870-1906, that's a lot of political capital involved in my view.

Yeah. And if Ireland is larger and more significant - and less unruly/upset - the Irish being accepted as part of that pretty functional (as these things go) multiethnic polity known as the UK seems feasible.

After all, it's not as if the Welsh or Scots were welcomed with open arms at first either, but things faded.

Ireland might have gotten hit worse by England than they did all the same, but as relates to this, it might still be enough to keep that as "Okay, shit happened in the past, but it's not happening now, right?"

I can't see it being all roses and sunshine, but it might be enough.

 

[sparky42]

Thanks. What I know of Irish history is in bits and pieces at best, and essentially is negligible post-1900.

Yeah. And if Ireland is larger and more significant - and less unruly/upset - the Irish being accepted as part of that pretty functional (as these things go) multiethnic polity known as the UK seems feasible.

After all, it's not as if the Welsh or Scots were welcomed with open arms at first either, but things faded.

Ireland might have gotten hit worse by England than they did all the same, but as relates to this, it might still be enough to keep that as "Okay, shit happened in the past, but it's not happening now, right?"

I can't see it being all roses and sunshine, but it might be enough.

No problem about the info.

Certainly a different Ireland would have ramifications, the Nationalists were able to play up the Queen doesn't care angle a lot (from memory it's actually been shown that she provided funds for relief works from her purse during the famine).

And if Ireland remains at 6-8 million they would remain the second largest within the Union so certainly there's a possibility that issues might have been handled differently by Westminster post famine.

 

[stevep]

Guys

I think emigration was already fairly large at the time and the population had pretty much peaked for the technology and organisation of the time. Hence, if somehow the famine had been largely avoided then you would very likely see large scale emigration from Ireland to Britain and wider afield in a generation or two as transport systems increase and become cheaper. However it would probably remove a lot of the venom that poisoned relations. [Probably the easiest butterfly would be change the timing so the Tories are in charge for the duration, with a more hands on approach rather than leave it to laissez-faire as the Liberals did. Not sure whether this would be able to extend for the duration of the famine but could help greatly]. Also some better communications so the details are known earlier. [One thing I once read was that in the early stages questions were asked about the famine and the blight but Dublin reported no problem. Basically because the potatoes around there were fine. However the slightly different type in the much wetter west and south was already rotting in the fields].

If relations are better and there is less tension there will still be problems as at least some of the Catholic groups will start arguing for restoring a Dublin Parliament and the Unionists and their supporters in Britain will oppose this. Likely to be a fair bit of stress on this but don't know whether a solution can be provided without the OTL conflict? Would it be possible to get an agreement similar to OTL without the violence, i.e. Dublin has Home Rule from London and Belfast from Dublin?

The other option, although I don't think there's much in the way of raw materials for it, would be if there was a markedly greater level of industrialisation in Ireland itself, to generate wealth and make use of the manpower and market coming from the larger population. Again this would need Britain to avoid the laissez-faire policy, but then in this time period that would be good for Britain as a whole.

Given the anti-Catholic feeling in the US and the occasional tension between Britain and America it might well be that an higher proportion of the Catholic diaspora goes to other areas, although that of course needs the stability and economic development to mean there is a pull as well as a push factor. Baring fairly dramatic changes I think the most likely locations would be what became the settler dominions and Argentina but how many more would go to them and what the impacts would be is hard to tell.

Anyway, my initial musings on the idea. For what their worth.

Steve

 

[Tyr]

The big issue for the world I would see is the impact the famine had on British politics. It absolutely destroyed the whigs as a political force and put an end to their protectionist/laissez-faire economic policies, helping bring in the liberals.
Not landing such a blow on the whigs and things might work out rather differently.

 

[Falkenburg]

The main issue with 'The Famine' is that it should more accurately be described as 'A Famine'.
It wasn't the first and it wasn't the last (although it did mark a watershed).

'Hungry Months' were a fact of life, even in good years.
Ireland simply couldn't sustain that size of population with the technologies and systems available.
At some point something had to give and as is the wont of such things eventually the system crashed.

Lets imagine that the Blight doesn't occur, for some reason, for the sake of argument.
Without the traumatic shock to the system there is less pressure to address the underlying problems.

Poverty will be as much of a driver of emigration as famine, if over a longer period, rather than as a sudden massive surge.
At the least those migrants would arrive at their destinations less destitute and desperate.

Without the bitterness of folk memories of famine exacerbated by apparent indifference relations with the British State would obviously be improved.

I'd still expect the 'Irish' to be a thorn in the side of the establishment, though.
Perhaps without The Famine Irish politics develops along more traditonal Left/Right lines, eschewing the narcissism of our particular brand of 'Nationalism'.

The optimist in me nurtures a hope that the working class, irrespective of their confessional alliegance, might develop (and prosper) in solidarity.
One can only hope.

The realist in me recognises that those divisions would only be reinforced (or even compounded) by the inevitable struggle for economic opportunities.

Bound to still be some antipathy towards 'England' but more as an embodiment of economic exploitation instead of 'Foreign Occupier'.

Waffling again. Is it just me or are there more Irish Threads around recently?

Falkenburg

 

[mosodake]

Although I think the US might be the least effected - not uneffected by any means, but the British Isles (and white Dominions) will be hugely effected.

Question to be asked though. Potato blight at some point seems rather likely given the cause. Would a later famine be dealt with better?

http://botit.botany.wisc.edu/toms_fungi/m2001alt.html

Something that thrives when it's "unusually cool and wet" is going to sooner or latter break out in the British Isles.

Phytophthora infestans is native to either Peru or Central America depending on who you ask, and up until the 20th century, there was only one strain outside of Central and South America, which means that there was probably only one introduction event. P. infestans can only survive long term in infected tubers, which usually begin rotting soon after infection. It's quite possible that P. infestans could have been introduced later or never cross the Atlantic at all.