WI: No 'flight to no where?'

So this is my first attempt at an alternate history scenario. In this case, I have decided to go with something that has only been touched on briefly by @ Zheng He. Specifically what if USS Hornet's Air Group led by CDR Stanhope Ring didn't lead the fighters and dive bombers on the 'flight to nowhere and left LT CDR John Waldron and VT-8's Devastators to be shot down by the Kido Butai's Anti-Air defences and Combat Air Patrol. A major point of divergence I'm thinking of is when the initial report on where the IJN carriers were located. Instead of two of the carriers being hidden by clouds, all four of them are sighted. Of course, this leads to other issues and questions that need to be raised.
1. Do Mitscher and Ring still make the same assumption that there are more carriers than initially reported?
2. Does Ring have Hornet's Air Group follow McClusky and Enterprise's air group based on this new report?
If he does follow the heading per the original timeline. Another divergence is that Ring decides to have the rest of Hornet's aircraft track Waldron and at 0940 they sight the Kido Butai. While they have the numbers to possibly get through the Anti-Air batteries and the CAP. Can Hornet's Air Group despite their inexperience damage at least one of the carriers? or at least with the number of aircraft give the Zeroes enough targets that they don't possibly shoot down the entirety of VT-8?

As for the rest of the battle. If they do land damage (possibly to the same extent as what happened in the OTL) to a carrier, which one would have been targeted? Also, does the resulting attack clue in Admirals Nagumo and Yamaguchi as to the possibility that the torpedo bombers are a distraction and that the dive bombers are the main threat? Does the successful attack mean that Vice Admiral Fletcher launches VS-5 to reinforce the strike from Yorktown? Finally, assuming the original dive bomber attack is successful, would Hornet's Air Groups success result in Yorktown surviving the Battle of Midway?
 
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Presumably Hiryu would have gotten hit with an extra carrier's worth of aircraft hanging about the battlespace, and given the 'quality' of her damage control displayed later that day, if she's hit, she burns and is scuttled. If all four Japanese carriers are taken out in a single strike, I don't really see how Yorktown doesn't survive unless a submarine gets REALLY lucky. What are they going to do, try to chase a carrier task force down with the Kongos?
 
Presumably Hiryu would have gotten hit with an extra carrier's worth of aircraft hanging about the battlespace, and given the 'quality' of her damage control displayed later that day, if she's hit, she burns and is scuttled. If all four Japanese carriers are taken out in a single strike, I don't really see how Yorktown doesn't survive unless a submarine gets REALLY lucky. What are they going to do, try to chase a carrier task force down with the Kongos?
From what I've seen on a number of videos discussing Midway. Hiryu was the main target for VT-8's attack run. Throw in the rest of Hornet's Air Group and the chances of actually scoring a hit are significantly higher. The only issues are that they would be facing up to 72 Zeroes and that this was their first combat mission. So with the exception of Ring, Waldron, LT CDR Samuel Mitchell (VF-8), LT CDR Robert Johnson (VB-8) and LT CDR Walter F. Rodee (VS-8), a lot of bombs will miss.

The other issue is that if Hiryu was taken out during that attack and everything else plays out the same, assuming Nagumo or Yamaguchi don't start thinking the Dive Bombers are the bigger threat. Then for the rest of the day, Task Forces 16 and 17 would be picking off the remaining ships. Haruna and Kirishima I assume would be the main targets. Even if Nagumo (either on his own initiative or on orders from Yamamoto) orders the two Kongos and a number of escorts to close in on Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet. The three carriers can still safely attack from a distance and can maintain that distance. Finally, you're right in that unless the IJN Submarines like I-168 were incredibly lucky, all three carriers can somewhat safely outrun them
 
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