WI: No Battle of Grunwald/Tannenberg in 1410

[Zireael]

As the topic says. Either the Teutonic Knights never try to christianize Zmudz (thus never antagonizing Vytautas/Witold, never leading to the war with Jagiello/Jogaila), or Jagiello doesn't come to Witold's help.

What would happen to the Central-Eastern Europe in the allohistory 15th century?

 

[seraphim74]

Jogaila and Poland not helping Vytautas and Lithuania is out of the question. Poles chose Jogaila to be their king exactly because they wanted to make an alliance with Lithuania against the Teutonic Order. Polish-Teutonic conflict did not start with Teutonic conquest of Samogitia (Żmudź).
Also the Order needed to keep christianizing pagans, since it was their reason of existence. The voluntary (more or less) christanization of Lithuania with Polish help was actually the last thing they wanted. Without pagans to fight they would have lost any reason to remain in Prussia. Which is why they kept claiming that the baptism of Lithuania was a hoax. There was also a fact that Vutautas had promised Samogitia to them.
But let's say they decided not to take Samogitia. The Order starts becoming weaker. Without pagans as enemies there are fewer new volunteers ready to fight for Christ, no new territories to conquer, less money coming from Christian Europe. Without their opinion as defenders of Christianity the Order becomes simply another feudal state.
The most probable scenario would have been for them to turn against Orthodox (as heretics) and start conquering Russia from their branch in Courland (the Sword Knights). However, I doubt such a campaign would have been so popular among European knights and so successful as it was in Prussia.

 

[kasumigenx]

Jogaila and Poland not helping Vytautas and Lithuania is out of the question. Poles chose Jogaila to be their king exactly because they wanted to make an alliance with Lithuania against the Teutonic Order. Polish-Teutonic conflict did not start with Teutonic conquest of Samogitia (Żmudź).
Also the Order needed to keep christianizing pagans, since it was their reason of existence. The voluntary (more or less) christanization of Lithuania with Polish help was actually the last thing they wanted. Without pagans to fight they would have lost any reason to remain in Prussia. Which is why they kept claiming that the baptism of Lithuania was a hoax. There was also a fact that Vutautas had promised Samogitia to them.
But let's say they decided not to take Samogitia. The Order starts becoming weaker. Without pagans as enemies there are fewer new volunteers ready to fight for Christ, no new territories to conquer, less money coming from Christian Europe. Without their opinion as defenders of Christianity the Order becomes simply another feudal state.
The most probable scenario would have been for them to turn against Orthodox (as heretics) and start conquering Russia from their branch in Courland (the Sword Knights). However, I doubt such a campaign would have been so popular among European knights and so successful as it was in Prussia.

I think it is possible if Jadwiga does not marry Jogaila and instead Mary marries Siemowit of Plock.

I think it is possible for Mary of Hungary, the daughter of Louis of Hungary to marry Siemowit of Plock and cancel her betrothal to Sigismund of Luxembourg, if it does happen, Poland will be under the Piasts again and this would mean Silesia would be returned to Poland because Upper Silesia was basically under Polish control because Wladyslaw of Opole was allied with the Angevins and was granted Kuyavia and Wielun and also because Wenceslaus IV, the Holy Roman Emperor was planning to completely return Silesia to Poland which did not happen in OTL because Jogaila and Wladyslaw of Opole became enemies.

I think Poland might be more friendly to Hussites than in OTL.

 

[Mefisto]

I think Poland might be more friendly to Hussites than in OTL.

It's hard for Poland to be even more friendly to Hussites than in OTL. The alliance between Jagiellons who used Hussite mercenaries in wars with TO and Hussites who wanted prince Zygmunt Korybutowicz for king and had their followers in Poland (Spytko vel Spytek of Melsztyn) was almost ABS if you consider that Jagiello was a baptized pagan who was constantly accused of being crypto-pagan. Of course no Zbigniew Olesnicki in this timeline means that hussite movement can take root in Poland.

 

[Zireael]

Well, Hussites are a side-matter in this question.

If we assume that Jogaila absolutely has to help Vitautas, then we can only achieve no battle if the Teutons never try to christianize Zhmudz.