WI No 1967 Arab-Israeli War

Let's say the Israelis interpret Nasser's movement of troops to the Sinai more rationally as a show to the other Arab leaders. As a result, there is no 1967 war. Jordan, Egypt and Syria retain the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Golan Heights respectively. What are the results of this?
 
It would have happened sooner or later, and most likely not to Israel's advantage. The tensions in the region were pretty high. Nasser had just extricated the Egyptian Army from Yemen, where it had basically been mauled and disorganized; if the war didn't happen in 1967 or 1968, the Israelis would be giving him plenty of time to recover, and after that Egypt becomes a lot more prepared to fight Israel back.

Israel continues to have much more endangered borders and a much smaller strategic depth, meaning it will be on edge, and without the 1967 victory to cement its reputation as the strongest military in the Middle East, there would still be doubt as to Israel's fate.
 
The real problem was not just the movement of Egyptian forces in the Sinai, it was the closure of the Straits of Tiran. By doing this, which was legally a causus belli, in combination with existing limits on the Suez Canal (no Israeli ships or ships bound for Israel), a huge burden was placed on Israeli access to Maritime trade. It meant anything from south or east of Israel would need to circumnavigate Africa, and then transit the Med to get to Israel rather than going to Eilat. If the straits are not closed the war might be avoided. However the issue of more forces in the Sinai cannot be ignored, Israel's problem, especially in 1967, is a complete lack of strategic depth so the practicality of a tactical retreat and a counterattack is limited. Furthermore because the Israeli Army is highly dependent on mobilized reserves, with the effect on the civilian economy, mobilizing in response to the threat and staying mobilized fro a prolonged period is also not very practical.

If there is no war in 1967, but one starts later on, depending on the timing Israel may by then have a number deployable nuclear weapons (not just one or two) and if the Arabs are doing better and given their start lines will be the 1967 borders, not the 1973 ones, those nukes might very well get used tactically and/or strategically.
 
Nasser was already under pressure for " doing nothing" about the Israelis. The removal of the UN forces was due to the pressure of the other Arab leaders saying nasser was hiding behind them. A "phoney war" would have wrecked his position as leader of the Arab world. Nasser would have been pushed into war by Arab nationalism demanding that he follow up on his rhetoric.
 
No preventive attack by the Israelis probably means a direct by the Arabs down the road. There is no way peace is kept in the Middle East in the late 60s.
Plus, Israel did not have nukes yet.
 
What is the most the Arabs could have achieved if 67' doesn't happen and they could launch a 73' style sneak attack before Israel finished developing the bomb?
 
Israel continues to have much more endangered borders and a much smaller strategic depth, meaning it will be on edge, and without the 1967 victory to cement its reputation as the strongest military in the Middle East, there would still be doubt as to Israel's fate.

What would the effects be on domestic Israeli politics? A earlier shifting of the spectrum towards the right?
 
Israel had a first weapon, only one, in 1966, and only began production after 1967. They did not have enough to use in the 67 war, however if there is no war in 1967 most assuredly the Israelis will begin production as OTL.
 
What would the effects be on domestic Israeli politics? A earlier shifting of the spectrum towards the right?

The Israeli link of "Left = peace, Right = not peace" is fairly recent. 2000s-ish. Before that, all major parties on both sides were hawks, and the main left/right divide was the role of government in regulating the economy.
 
The Israeli link of "Left = peace, Right = not peace" is fairly recent. 2000s-ish. Before that, all major parties on both sides were hawks, and the main left/right divide was the role of government in regulating the economy.

OTOH, while all major parties were hawkish, they are not as irredentist as the current Israeli government and its coalition partners.
 
The Israeli link of "Left = peace, Right = not peace" is fairly recent. 2000s-ish. Before that, all major parties on both sides were hawks, and the main left/right divide was the role of government in regulating the economy.

Ah, thanks for the clarification.
 
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