WI: Nicolas d'Anjou Survives

The last male line descendant of le Bon Roi René, died in Nancy in 1473, of suspected poisoning by his cousin, the king of France. With Nicolas I, duke of Lorraine dead, the house of Valois-Anjou was effectively extinct, since the primary heir of the Angevin 'empire' was the childless, Charles, Comte du Maine. Nicolas' aunt, Yolande (René's eldest daughter) inherited the duchies of Lorraine and Bar, as well as his claims to the Neapolitan/Jerusalemnite/Cypriot throne. Du Maine, as Charles IV, duc d'Anjou, inherited the dukedom of Anjou, the Countship of Provence and Forcalquier and the other French fiefs of the Angevins, but died childless in 1481, with the entirety of the Angevin dominions (Anjou, Provence, Maine etc) in France passing back to the French crown.

But what if Nicolas had lived? There had been marital plans for him with either Anne de Beaujeu, elder daughter of Louis XI, or with Marie, heiress to the vast collection of duchies/countships known as Burgundy. He himself was an heir in his own right, since he already possessed the duchy of Lorraine through his paternal grandmother, the heirdom to the kingdom of Aragon (both through René's mother and his father's election as king) and if he had lived a bit longer, he would've inherited his grandfather's domains of Anjou and his claim to the Neapolitan/Jerusalemnite/Cypriot throne.

So, say he recovers from the illness that killed him, marries and has a few kids of his own to see the house of Valois-Anjou outlast the century, how does this change the future?
 
What if, as a way to sorta neutralize Nicolas (and prevent him from gaining too much power) the Spider King arranges a marriage for him to the spurned Bona of Savoy when she comes back from England? She still has enough younger sisters or nieces to marry Sforza and she was clearly from fertile stock (her husband's death OTL merely truncated any chance of her copying her parents' 19 children).
 
He has two best choices of Brides - Mary of Burgundy or Isabella of Castile.

True, but I could see Louis XI moving heaven and earth to prevent those two matches from happening. At the same time, Nicolas will raise all holy hell trying to get married to either of them and marrying neither.
 
In the short term there are some interesting possibilities as Nicolas and Lorraine were deeply entangled in the web of alliances surrounding Charles the Bold of Burgundy. If Nicolas survives Charles the Bold probably continues his campaign in the north adding Frisia to his conquest of Guelders. OTL the campaign was cut short to deal with the Lorraine succession. The conquest of Frisia has import to Charles' simultaneous negotiations with Frederick III to be crowned King of the Romans. Frederick was apparently willing to give him a crown but not an Imperial one. So perhaps with Lorraine firmly in his camp under Nicolas and the recent conquest of Frisia complete Charles could secure for himself the title of King of Frisia, though something lesser like Lord of Frisia is probably more likely for all the reasons Charles failed to get a crown OTL. But a Lordship of Frisia with some kind of vicariate over the Low Countries would have ramifications when the Burgundian line ultimately dies out.

But as things advance it's not guaranteed that Nicolas would remain in Charles' camp. He had been earlier wooed to the French side with promises of marriage to Anne of France until Charles tempted him with his own daughter Mary. Sadly for him Louis used Anne and Charles used Mary insincerely as bait with neither side really willing to commit to the marriage. Charles apparently made Nicolas renounce his engagement to Mary in 1472 after the conclusion of the campaign against Louis, ie when he wasn't of immediate utility and when Charles needed once again to use Mary as lure to get his crown from Frederick. So if Charles gets too arrogant I could see Nicolas defect back to France and marry Anne before she marries Peter of Bourbon. Bona of Savoy was married prior to his OTL death so I don't see why that would change.

I could see a scenario where a stronger Charles, still failing to be crowned King of the Romans, obtains a crown or double crown (Burgundy, Frisia or Burgundy and Frisia) from Frederick in 1473 with the betrothal of Mary and Maximilian. Charles ensures that Savoy and Lorraine fall within the territorial vicariate of his new Kingdom. This angers Nicolas enough (loosing out on Mary on top of having to submit to Charles) that he promptly defects to Louis and renews the betrothal to Anne. Charles of course invades Lorraine and perhaps the rest plays out like OTL with Charles' enemies ultimately getting the better of him. I think his unchecked ambition will always be his undoing. But Nicolas comes out of the 1470s still Duke of Lorraine and Anjou and Count of Provence with his previously strong neighbor, Burgundy, chastened and perhaps in a succession conflict. Then in the early 1480s you have a child, Charles VIII, on the French throne, the Habsburgs trying consolidate their hold on Burgundy and so the way is open for Nicolas to extend his power and influence.

Alternatively if the wedding and coronation fall through as OTL perhaps Nicolas holds out in the Burgundian camp. Without the problems in Lorraine Charles could live longer than OTL, obviously no Battle of Nancy, but ultimately he has to settle on a marriage for his daughter by the close of the decade before she becomes too old and thus a less desirable marriage prospect (a serious concern considering his enemies had been spreading rumors for years that she was infertile or had some other condition that would prevent her from giving any prospective groom healthy children). So then a lot depends on the intransigence of Frederick and Charles. Maximilian is still the best candidate since his father can give Charles something no one else can, a crown and greater power. But Frederick absolutely refused to make Charles King of the Romans and Charles' conditions for a lesser crown were too great. So either they reach a compromise and Mary marries Maximilian or Charles ultimately looks elsewhere and Nicolas is still probably the best alternative. Given that the only others considered OTL who would still be candidates in the mid 1470s would probably be Nicolas, Francis II of Brittany, the Dauphin Charles and maybe Frederick of Naples, Philibert of Savoy and Philip of the Palatinate. Nicolas brings more to the table than Francis, the Dauphin is too young and the enmity between Charles and Louis would probably scuttle such a marriage and the latter three were never really seriously considered. So Nicolas stands a good chance but really only if Frederick refuses to cooperate.

If in a third scenario Nicolas marries neither Anne nor Mary he probably looks further afield in an attempt to advance his own dynastic interests. Perhaps as a way to bury the hatchet with Aragon he weds Ferdinand II's sister Joanna of Aragon (OTL wife of Ferdinand I of Naples). Or perhaps a daughter of Eleanor of Navarre as prelude to a move against Aragon. Anne of Savoy (OTL wife of Frederick of Naples and cousin to Charles VIII) could serve as a marital alliance with France while also opening the alpine passes to an Angevin army should he want to move against Naples.

Certainly the late 1400s are very different in any scenario. Charles VIII's claim to Naples was as the Angevin heir through his grandmother Marie d'Anjou, but with the Angevin male line continuing he has no claims in Italy. On the other hand given a marriage to Anne I'm not sure that Nicolas, or more likely his son, would be able to muster sufficient forces to successfully invade the peninsula, certainly not in the manner that Charles did. Nicolas would also have claim to Aragon through his great grandmother Yolande of Aragon and John II of Aragon was quarrelling with Louis XI over control of Roussillon through the 1470s, since it had been pledged to France but Louis would not let him redeem it. If Nicolas secures a role in the regency of Charles VIII perhaps he can claim Roussillon and move against Aragon again. It would also be interesting if, assuming Francis II still only has daughters, Nicolas is able to marry his son to an ATL Anne of Brittany. It would shore up Angevin territories in the west of France, though his collection of fiefs is still pretty unwieldy. I suppose if he can't secure either Naples or Aragon, and either would be tough, the Angevin line will, in the long term, be not much stronger than the houses of Orleans or Bourbon.

Given the alternative of a marriage with Mary of Burgundy then Nicolas has a substantial realm, larger even than Charles' but he's probably the mutual enemy of Louis XI and Frederick III. If he can survive until their deaths he then has some breathing room. Perhaps he exchanges the Duchy of Anjou for clear title to the Duchy of Burgundy or perhaps given some outrageous success in a Mad War equivalent he secures both and the Breton inheritance to boot. He should then have enough time to secure his dominions allowing his son to muster a force for an invasion of either Italy or Aragon, probably the former. But he'd be opposed by Aragon and tacitly by France and the Emperor who would both be fearful of further Angevin aggrandizement so its hard to say how successful such an endeavor would be.

Ultimately the problem seems the same, without securing a crown of their own outside of France and the HRE the Angevin 'Empire' may prove as ephemeral as its 12th century namesake. A collection of fiefs, especially one straddling the borders of France and Empire, would lack the cohesion for true long term stability and growth. It would be really fun to see the Angevins inherit Burgundy then take Naples then go own to gain the Imperial crown after Maximilian, make themselves Kings of Burgundy, Frisia (Low Countries), Lombardy and Naples and so secure a power base for themselves within the Empire that could sustain their dynasty. Then their collection of territories is analogous to the Habsburgs' realms and that dynasty ruled the Empire for centuries. The OTL network of alliances would certainly be thrown off. The personal union of Castile-Aragon under Isabella and Ferdinand would probably retain the traditionally pro-French policy of Castile in opposition to the Angevins. So rather than a Habsburg marriage there may be a series of Franco-Spanish matches by century's end. And an alliance of France and Spain, if it could be maintained, would be a serious threat to the Imperial Angevins.
 
What if Nicolas marries Marie, and marries a son/grandson to a Sforza heiress (of sorts) after he's reconquered Naples and he resurrects the Middle Kingdom of Charlemagne's empire (Burgundy, Lorraine, Italy)? That would look cool on maps, an empire splitting Europe into two portions, running from the English Channel to the Straits of Messina (rather than basically the realm of OTL Karl V).
 

I was under the impression that part of the reason that the negotiations between Friedrich and Charles fell through had to do with the fact that Charles had no son (legitimate or otherwise), and Friedrich would agree to name him king, inasmuch as what when Charles died, Marie would pass the crown back to Friedrich's grandchildren. However, Charles didn't want to see the territories that he and his father/grandfather had assembled pass to the Habsburgs via marriage, and then Friedrich absconded from the meeting and went back to Austria taking the idea of a royal crown with him.

And I agree with you, an Angevin Empire down middle Europe is at the mercy of France and the Empire, which means it might have to play them off against each other in order to survive. A marriage with either Anna of Savoy/Juana of Aragon sounds interesting, however, I worry that Nicolas was the only one of his parents' four children to survive infancy, while Anna had only one child (a daughter, Carlotta) that killed her, and Juana had two, of whom only the daughter survived. So assuming an OTL obstetric history for them, Nicolas is either going to have to remarry or the succession to the Angevin empire is merely deferred for a generation.

On the subject of Nicolas deciding to claim Naples for himself, a marriage to Anne de France (especially during her regency), could see him marshalling France's forces behind him (theoretically in the name of the king) couldn't it? Although Anne de France again seems to have less than stellar fertility (a son born shortly after the marriage to Pierre de Bourbon that many historians doubt the existence of, and a daughter who left no surviving issue).

If Nicolas' son manages to marry an alt-Anne of Brittany, the question again arises who would Charles VIII marry? TTL Margarethe of Austria? Or Elizabeth of York? Maybe Isabel of Aragon in an attempt to mend fences with Castile (which in and of itself proves interesting since if her brother still dies on schedule with no heirs, we could see an earlier union of France and (at least) Castile)).
 
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