yourworstnightmare
Banned
What if the oil in Libya was found by the Italians during the late 20s. How would it change Fascist Italy and WW2???
WI Mussolini found Libya's oil
- Thread starter yourworstnightmare
- Start date
Well, Italy would be a more major player in the Axis to say the least. The revenue brought in from this can do nothing but good to Italy.
Not to mention suddenly the entire oil supply of the Axis isn't centered on Romania.
Once the war actually starts the British are bound to concentrate their efforts on naval superiority in the Mediterranian(the Regia Marina and Aeronautica might be more potent though), and the brunt of their ground forces to siezing it. So it might not change things much beyond stiffer Italian resistance.
Not to mention suddenly the entire oil supply of the Axis isn't centered on Romania.
Once the war actually starts the British are bound to concentrate their efforts on naval superiority in the Mediterranian(the Regia Marina and Aeronautica might be more potent though), and the brunt of their ground forces to siezing it. So it might not change things much beyond stiffer Italian resistance.
Bill Cameron
Banned
Threads of this type just make me shake my head and sigh. 
So, Mussolini's Italy "finds" oil in Libya? Just how does that happen give 1920s technology and geological knowledge? Jedellini Clampetti is out shooting for some food and up from the ground comes a bubbling crude?
There's are reason why oil wasn't "discovered" in Libya until the 40s and 50s. They're the same reasons why oil in Siberia wasn't available for Imperial Japan, why Britain wasn't drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea in 1932, or why Iraq supplied more oil than Saudi Arabia to the Allied war effort.
We didn't have the geographical knowledge to theorize of and identify deep potentially oil bearing strata, we didn't have the tools to locate those strata under all the overburden, and we didn't have the technology to exploit the strata if somehow we did find them.
When threads of this type suggest someone somehow finds and uses oil deposits we only knew found and exploited because of relatively advanced technology, they're not just suggesting some lucky fellow fell into a pool of muck.
What they're really suggesting is either a geological PODs deep in time enough to replace the deep OTL deposits with shallow deposits or they're suggesting marked advances in geology theory and technology. Both of those PODs would have all sorts of other knock-on effects.
So, what if Mussolini found Libya's oil? That depends on how he found it. Is Libya's geology hugely different or does Mussolini have advanced technology? No matter which way you answer, finding Liyba's oil will only be one of the minor effects of the POD.
Bill
So, Mussolini's Italy "finds" oil in Libya? Just how does that happen give 1920s technology and geological knowledge? Jedellini Clampetti is out shooting for some food and up from the ground comes a bubbling crude?
There's are reason why oil wasn't "discovered" in Libya until the 40s and 50s. They're the same reasons why oil in Siberia wasn't available for Imperial Japan, why Britain wasn't drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea in 1932, or why Iraq supplied more oil than Saudi Arabia to the Allied war effort.
We didn't have the geographical knowledge to theorize of and identify deep potentially oil bearing strata, we didn't have the tools to locate those strata under all the overburden, and we didn't have the technology to exploit the strata if somehow we did find them.
When threads of this type suggest someone somehow finds and uses oil deposits we only knew found and exploited because of relatively advanced technology, they're not just suggesting some lucky fellow fell into a pool of muck.
What they're really suggesting is either a geological PODs deep in time enough to replace the deep OTL deposits with shallow deposits or they're suggesting marked advances in geology theory and technology. Both of those PODs would have all sorts of other knock-on effects.
So, what if Mussolini found Libya's oil? That depends on how he found it. Is Libya's geology hugely different or does Mussolini have advanced technology? No matter which way you answer, finding Liyba's oil will only be one of the minor effects of the POD.
Bill
Markus
Banned
Ahh, an opportinuty for my Musso-Wank:
OK, in the early 30´s an Italian geologist explores the Libyan desert and finds … OIL! And a f…ing lot of it.
Now I’m Benny M. and what would I do with my new found wealth?
Nummero uno: Once the oil money starts flowing it is spend to improve the infrastructure in southern Italy. Like the “Benito Mussolini Railroad Line” connecting Rome with Naples and Taranto/Reggio Calabria. Top speed 125 mph. The industrialized North will get his share in the form of increased arms production.
Nummero due: Hold elections! With all that oil money a sure win for me.
Than there is this war. Several actually. I figure the one with Ethiopia is superfluous. Who needs military glory to get public support? Not me, I have oil money, I can buy all the public support I want. And this war in 39 is something Italy better stays away from. Probably something to gain, but why take the risk? Especially with the WW1 background in mind: Germany eventually lost and the Entente delivered less than it promised.
No, I stay neutral, reinforce Libya to make sure the Brits don’t try something with my oil wells, because they don’t want me sell it to my buddy Adolf who get the special dictators discount. Of course I sell the Brits all the oil they can pay for, too.
Things change in December 1941 when Germany is stopped in Russia and the USA enters the war. Now it looks like Germany is going to loose and oil money or not a world dominated by the USA and the f…ing Commies is not a nice place for a fascist dictator like me, so I have to take action:
December 8th 1942: Operation Torch
Convoys with troops from the USA and the UK secretly slipp into the Med, sail west and now arrive in …Naples, Rome and Sardinia where the people are somewhat surprised to learn the fascist ruled kingdom of Italy is the latest addition to the United Nations. By the way: I´m totally flattered that my style is so popular in the US Militray. There was me on my white steed, helmet on, cavalry boots and than this Major-General climbed out of the landing craft, almost exactly dressed like me. Got him a white steed ASAP and he gave me one of his revolvers. Good man!
Don´t look that surprised. Betraying the Germans in time of war is an honoured Italian tradition –ok, it was the Austrians actually, but Adolf is one- and this time it´s a much safer bet than in WW1.
How does it end? With me dying of old age in a bed –hopefully while i´m together with some hot chick like Clara Petacci- and being remembered as Italy´s greatest and most beloved leader.
Threads of this type just make me shake my head and sigh.
So, Mussolini's Italy "finds" oil in Libya? Just how does that happen give 1920s technology and geological knowledge? Jedellini Clampetti is out shooting for some food and up from the ground comes a bubbling crude?
Actually, Ardito Desio discovered subsurface oil in 1938, but a wider search for deposits was first made difficult by the lack of deep drilling equipment and then halted by the war.
Not at all. What Italy relly needed to exploit libyan oil is better relation with USA, which had that technology, if I remember correctly. Hardly impossible, though we can discuss about its probability.
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
As I seem to recall, wasn't good ole Benny a bit egotistical? As I remember his jealousy of hitler's military success in 1940 drove his decision making to start poking his head around where it didn't belong (Greece anybody?).
Now I know what some people will say, but the Italians got trounced in Greece, it wasn't until the Germans pitched in that the Greco-British forces were defeated.
I think it may be possible that if things elsewhere progress similarly to OTL in Europe you may see Mussolini deciding to throw his lot in with the Nazi's and make a grab for some British posessions in northern africa while the gettin's good. Things might have turned out better for the Italians in TTL anyway since Italy and Germany would be more Co-belligerents rather than formal allies, so he might be able to start back pedaling by late 41 or early 42 when things started to turn bad for the Germans.
Now I know what some people will say, but the Italians got trounced in Greece, it wasn't until the Germans pitched in that the Greco-British forces were defeated.
I think it may be possible that if things elsewhere progress similarly to OTL in Europe you may see Mussolini deciding to throw his lot in with the Nazi's and make a grab for some British posessions in northern africa while the gettin's good. Things might have turned out better for the Italians in TTL anyway since Italy and Germany would be more Co-belligerents rather than formal allies, so he might be able to start back pedaling by late 41 or early 42 when things started to turn bad for the Germans.
Could this equipment be purchased somewhere or could the Italians have perhaps invented something?
(Necessity is the mother of invention, after all)
The 1920's post war restructuring of the Italian Military peaked in ?1935?. The second round of restructuring was to be done by 1942~43.
However with Oil money in the Mid 30's, this could be speed up so Italy could be able to take Greece in 1941.
But I still think that with the oil Money, Italy would be much more likely to stay Neutral in WW2.
There's another problem with discovery in the 20's that hasn't yet been addressed: the ongoing Arab Senusite insurgencies, based mostly in Fezzan (southern interior Libya), which, as it happens, is where the oil is. It wasn't until 1931 when Muktar, the primary leader, was captured. Discovering, getting to the oil and then exploiting it will be extremely difficult and vulnerable with the ongoing war.
Therefore, unless you end the insurgency earlier you couldn't get to the oil in any manner before the early 1930's. And yes, you'll need help from the Americans, strictly speaking the Texas oil industry which IIRC were the ones with deep well experience. Now, we can likely assume Fascist pride/ego will mean that a couple of years could be wasted attempting to go it alone before they salved their pride and called Texaco.
Now, a lot will depend on when the actual exploitation starts, and who is involved. If oil is discovered pre-1934 and Libya is suddenly THE strategic gem of the Italian Empire, then adventures in Ethiopia may seem less interesting. If before 34, then we probably do not see Balbo as Governor, since Mussolini sent him there in "exile" because his fame and ambition was a threat to Mussie's power. Perhaps he's sent to Somalia or even ambassador to the US, where he's a hero after his 33 mass flight to Chicago. If after 34 Balbo is suddenly astride the wealth of the Empire, and as a master organizer he'll have things running like clockwork. The Balbo Threat has just multiplied. There could be dangerous times ahead.
Either way, early oil changes the game. Now Italy has an actual exportable resource to offset the severe trade deficit. Yet, now those vulnerable sealanes are all the more critical. Expect a massive naval buildup with that oil revenue with the express goal of naval parity with France. France and England are THE worry since they threaten those ultra-critical sealanes. Since the UK will always utclass them navally there may be a greater attempt at appeasing the naval giant and perhaps an attempt to sew discord between France and the UK.
Now, when Mussie wants to go adventuring (and he will) perhaps Ethiopia, though the exponentially increased risk should France or the UK intervene might put an end to that. Perhaps he accepts those favorable "protectorate" terms the UK proposed and he rejected OTL.
Instead, when Hitler eventually (and inevitably) starts a war I see him waiting until France is occupied and then having a ("paralell") go at Yugoslavia in order to secure the Dalmatian coast and put an end to the "Slavic peril". Perhaps set up a Croat puppet state. With an increased spending on the army this will be possible, but still difficult considering the country they'll be fighting in. Perhaps a go at Greece, but not if this means antagonizing the UK unless Mussie thinks they'll be too busy with Germany (a very grave and likely fatal miscalculation).
The temptations of Savoy nd Tunesia (and its "oppressed" Italian minority) may still drive him to war with France as OTL if he thinks the allies are doomed. Again, bad times ahead once the UK crushes the fleet and overruns Libya.
The smart way is neutrality and "parallel war" in Yugoslavia. Play both sides against the middle diplomatically and sell to all. Maybe eventually side with the Allies once the Soviets put paid to the Greater Reich.
The dumb way is the Axis and join the war earlier. This basically means OTL and eventual lamp post with his name on it, but Italy will prove a harder nut to crack with the ATL increased military. More allied casualties, but the end is the same.
Therefore, unless you end the insurgency earlier you couldn't get to the oil in any manner before the early 1930's. And yes, you'll need help from the Americans, strictly speaking the Texas oil industry which IIRC were the ones with deep well experience. Now, we can likely assume Fascist pride/ego will mean that a couple of years could be wasted attempting to go it alone before they salved their pride and called Texaco.
Now, a lot will depend on when the actual exploitation starts, and who is involved. If oil is discovered pre-1934 and Libya is suddenly THE strategic gem of the Italian Empire, then adventures in Ethiopia may seem less interesting. If before 34, then we probably do not see Balbo as Governor, since Mussolini sent him there in "exile" because his fame and ambition was a threat to Mussie's power. Perhaps he's sent to Somalia or even ambassador to the US, where he's a hero after his 33 mass flight to Chicago. If after 34 Balbo is suddenly astride the wealth of the Empire, and as a master organizer he'll have things running like clockwork. The Balbo Threat has just multiplied. There could be dangerous times ahead.
Either way, early oil changes the game. Now Italy has an actual exportable resource to offset the severe trade deficit. Yet, now those vulnerable sealanes are all the more critical. Expect a massive naval buildup with that oil revenue with the express goal of naval parity with France. France and England are THE worry since they threaten those ultra-critical sealanes. Since the UK will always utclass them navally there may be a greater attempt at appeasing the naval giant and perhaps an attempt to sew discord between France and the UK.
Now, when Mussie wants to go adventuring (and he will) perhaps Ethiopia, though the exponentially increased risk should France or the UK intervene might put an end to that. Perhaps he accepts those favorable "protectorate" terms the UK proposed and he rejected OTL.
Instead, when Hitler eventually (and inevitably) starts a war I see him waiting until France is occupied and then having a ("paralell") go at Yugoslavia in order to secure the Dalmatian coast and put an end to the "Slavic peril". Perhaps set up a Croat puppet state. With an increased spending on the army this will be possible, but still difficult considering the country they'll be fighting in. Perhaps a go at Greece, but not if this means antagonizing the UK unless Mussie thinks they'll be too busy with Germany (a very grave and likely fatal miscalculation).
The temptations of Savoy nd Tunesia (and its "oppressed" Italian minority) may still drive him to war with France as OTL if he thinks the allies are doomed. Again, bad times ahead once the UK crushes the fleet and overruns Libya.
The smart way is neutrality and "parallel war" in Yugoslavia. Play both sides against the middle diplomatically and sell to all. Maybe eventually side with the Allies once the Soviets put paid to the Greater Reich.
The dumb way is the Axis and join the war earlier. This basically means OTL and eventual lamp post with his name on it, but Italy will prove a harder nut to crack with the ATL increased military. More allied casualties, but the end is the same.
Bill Cameron
Banned
Geekhis,
Yes, operators in the US were just about the only ones with deep well experience during this period. They had been working as far afield as the DEI and Baku too, but the tools and techniques hadn't been fully passed along yet. If wanted to drill deep you needed to call them.
However, people always forget in threads like this that drilling deep isn't the same as knowing where to drill deep and the presence of surface deposits don't automatically equate the presence of deep deposits.
In the US a few deep deposits were coincidentally close to surface deposits and that led the US to develop deep drilling techniques and to look for additional deep deposits. However, the search for deep deposits was still essentially a "hunt and peck" proposition, the geological knowledge wasn't yet up to the task and deep earth sensing technology, i.e. seismographs, wasn't even dreamed of.
"Lucky" oil men knew where to drill, much like "lucky" prospectors in centuries past, and even they brought in far more dry holes than strikes. Most decisions about where to drill only consisted of setting up next door to a productive well. They tried using dowsers for god's sake. After the theory and technique of deep prospecting were developed, smart oil men rechecked areas previously "explored" and found quite substantial deposits.
This "hunt and peck" method is why deep drilling took so long to catch on elsewhere. There was no real impetus to sink money into what was essentially a crap shoot.
It doesn't matter if Desio discovered subsurface deposits in the 30s. They obviously weren't worth exploiting then and they most certainly weren't seen as an automatic indication that economically significant deep deposits were several thousand feet below.
You want the Moose to exploit Libya's oil? You're going to have to advance the geological knowledge of the 1920s and 30s and advance the search techniques and equipment needed to employ that knowledge.
This POD isn't as simple as having Jed Clampett hunting possums along the right sand dune some lazy afternoon.
Regards,
Bill
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Bill, you make a lot of interesting and very informative points about finding and exploiting oil, and I appreciate you sharing them. I've leared more about oil exploitation because of them. Thank you.
That said, could you please tone down the sarcasm? The Jed Clampet comments and dismissive tone are not only rude, they're insulting and add nothing to the conversation. I know you're undoubtedly sick of the "same old uninformed PODs", but could you please be more civil and helpful? Frankly, it makes people inclined to ignore your very salient points off hand.
Not everyone has your subject area knowledge. We'd all appreciate the information if you're willing to share them in a polite and helpful manner.
That said, could you please tone down the sarcasm? The Jed Clampet comments and dismissive tone are not only rude, they're insulting and add nothing to the conversation. I know you're undoubtedly sick of the "same old uninformed PODs", but could you please be more civil and helpful? Frankly, it makes people inclined to ignore your very salient points off hand.
Not everyone has your subject area knowledge. We'd all appreciate the information if you're willing to share them in a polite and helpful manner.
Thanks, Bill. And thanks again for the info on oil exploitation. This will be very helpful when I get around to doing Viva Balbo.
Bill Cameron,
What you say about deep drilling is without doubt true and probably the reason why Desio didn't push for more drillings (I think he was searching for water rather than oil at the time, but I'm not sure). In Italy Desio was later criticized for not understanding the true value of his discoveries, but I don't know how much these critics were really deserved.
Anyway, unless I'm mistaken, what Desio discovered was actually one of those deep deposit later rediscovered by Exxon. So, ironically, the "hunt and peck" strategy would have paid off for once.
Anyway we should remember that an Italy closer to the USA in 1938, when Desio made his discoveries, would be a huge change compared to OTL. The impact of such relantionship would dwarf the discovery of oil deposit in Libya. Don't forget, besides, that could take a few years of development before the libyan oilfields could become truly productive.
By far the funniest thing I've seen today ... a rare early Monday laugh.
Assuming there is a way for the oil to be found and used ... then Rommel won't have to watch as his precious fuel tankers are sank just as they are about to dock by the code reading British subs/planes. Hmmm or would such field be overrun by the Brits before the Afrikacorps were sent and thus destroyed by the subsequent retreat? Which then creates the question of; would the oil be important enough that Hitler sends assistance to their latest weak war ally previous to OTL? (Rommel with fuel) + (Incentive to send more forces to protect such resources) = Trouble for the Brits in Egypt?