WI: Michael Collins survives the Irish Civil War?

What if Michael Collins had not been shot at Béal na Bláth and had survived the Irish Civil War? I recommend reading The Path to Freedom which can be found online here (http://www.generalmichaelcollins.com/on-line-books/the-path-to-freedom-index/), it's a fascinating read, especially the "Building Up Ireland" and "Distinctive Culture" chapters which give an idea on Collins' economic and cultural ideas for Ireland. One thing that's clear is that Collins was much more radical compared to much of Cumann na nGeadhael.

One interesting thing economically is that Collins expressed a dislike of both capitalism and 'state socialism', and supported the creation of industries along co-operative lines. He also encouraged Ireland to look to countries in mainland Europe such as Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands for inspiration.

Collins was a strong believer in Gaelic culture and the Irish language, he looked upon the island of Achill as an ideal example of an Irish society unpenetrated by Anglicisation, considered the English language a foreign tongue and saw the restoration of the Irish language to be a very important task without which the Irish people would not be truly free. This could help prevent the Irish langauge from further declining as much as it did if Collins were to implement the recommendations of the 1926 Gaeltacht Commission which Cosgrave ignored OTL and a reform of Irish language teaching methods (even in the 1940s they were known to be archaic and half-assed or 'Antediluvian' as Ailtirí na hAiséirghe put it).

A March 1922 decree that all birth, death and marriage certificates would require Irish-language versions of names was passed unanimously but never implemented due to the outbreak of the civil war, given his views Collins may implement it afterwards.

Regarding the north Collins in the Path to Freddom believed that the Boundary Commission would strip it of Tyrone and Fermanagh (something which we know was not to be) and that Northern Ireland would collapse on its own. He also stated that in an Irish Republic the six counties would have generous autonomy. However later during the civil war he stated: "we now have a force that means something in future dealings with Britain and the North East … The present fight is only training for our troops, it gives our soldiers confidence" and that "I am forced to the conclusion that we may yet have to fight the British in the North East", meaning that conflict over the north in the future would be very likely, especially after it became clear the Boundary Commission wouldn't be what the Irish government hoped it was.

It's clear from his writings that, like de Valera, he believed in gradually detaching Ireland from the Commonwealth and establishing a republic, and as a result I don't see him joining the Allies as some people have theorised before.

More controversially, could Collins have become a dictator? Ireland from the outbreak of the civil war until his death was controlled by a military council consisting of him, Eoin O'Duffy and Richard Mulcahy, the meeting of the Dáil elected in June 1922 was postponed several times and didn't meet until September 1922 after Collins' death. Heavy censorship was imposed and the right to trial before detention was suspended.

The question is if whether this would be temporary until the end of the civil war or if it would go on indefinitely. On one hand, in July Collins wrote a long memo to the Dáil reassuring them that the civil war was "a fight for national freedom' for the 'freest and most democratic system yet devised" that "the army has to recognise that it is the servant and not the master of the people" and that "the parliament was now the controlling body".

On the other hand he wrote to the IRB that "the policy of the IRB shall be to utilise every power and movement in the nation, it shall influence them in their activities and coordinate them these activities… to secure the maximum organised strength of the Nation – armed, political, social and otherwise – shall be available for its objectives" and that "while accepting the the present government of the Saor Stait the Supreme Council of the IRB is declared the sole government of the Irish Republic until full independence is achieved and a permanent Republican government is established. The authority of the Supreme Council shall be unquestioned by members", suggesting the possibility that the Irish government would controlled by the IRB either explicity (Collins, O'Duffy and Mulcahy all being IRB members) or from the shadows at least until the establishment of a republic.

Even more controversially I think that given his expressed dislike for both capitalism and socialism, his radical economic and cultural ideas, his advocacy of looking towards mainland Europe (where Italy and Germany were the clear rising stars) and his close friendship with O'Duffy (holding him in high regard and even considering him to be his successor), I think there's a possibility Collins may have had or could've come to have sympathies for fascism, especially if interwar Ireland remains economically and culturally stagnant as in OTL.
 
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Deleted member 2186

What if Michael Collins had not been shot at Béal na Bláth and had survived the Irish Civil War? I recommend reading The Path to Freedom which can be found online here (http://www.generalmichaelcollins.com/on-line-books/the-path-to-freedom-index/), it's a fascinating read, especially the "Building Up Ireland" and "Distinctive Culture" chapters which give an idea on Collins' economic and cultural ideas for Ireland. One thing that's clear is that Collins was much more radical compared to much of Cumann na nGeadhael.

One interesting thing economically is that Collins expressed a dislike of both capitalism and 'state socialism', and supported the creation of industries along co-operative lines. He also encouraged Ireland to look to countries in mainland Europe such as Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands for inspiration.

Collins was a strong believer in Gaelic culture and the Irish language, he looked upon the island of Achill as an ideal example of an Irish society unpenetrated by Anglicisation, considered the English language a foreign tongue and saw the restoration of the Irish language to be a very important task without which the Irish people would not be truly free. This could help prevent the Irish langauge from further declining as much as it did if Collins were to implement the recommendations of the 1926 Gaeltacht Commission which Cosgrave ignored OTL and a reform of Irish language teaching methods (even in the 1940s they were known to be archaic and half-assed or 'Antediluvian' as Ailtirí na hAiséirghe put it).

A March 1922 decree that all birth, death and marriage certificates would require Irish-language versions of names was passed unanimously but never implemented due to the outbreak of the civil war, given his views Collins may implement it afterwards.

Regarding the north Collins in the Path to Freddom believed that the Boundary Commission would strip it of Tyrone and Fermanagh (something which we know was not to be) and that Northern Ireland would collapse on its own. He also stated that in an Irish Republic the six counties would have generous autonomy. However later during the civil war he stated: "we now have a force that means something in future dealings with Britain and the North East … The present fight is only training for our troops, it gives our soldiers confidence" and that "I am forced to the conclusion that we may yet have to fight the British in the North East", meaning that conflict over the north in the future would be very likely, especially after it became clear the Boundary Commission wouldn't be what the Irish government hoped it was.

It's clear from his writings that, like de Valera, he believed in gradually detaching Ireland from the Commonwealth and establishing a republic, and as a result I don't see him joining the Allies as some people have theorised before.

More controversially, could Collins have become a dictator? Ireland from the outbreak of the civil war until his death was controlled by a military council consisting of him, Eoin O'Duffy and Richard Mulcahy, the meeting of the Dáil elected in June 1922 was postponed several times and didn't meet until September 1922 after Collins' death. Heavy censorship was imposed and the right to trial before detention was suspended.

The question is if whether this would be temporary until the end of the civil war or if it would go on indefinitely. On one hand, in July Collins wrote a long memo to the Dáil reassuring them that the civil war was "a fight for national freedom' for the 'freest and most democratic system yet devised" that "the army has to recognise that it is the servant and not the master of the people" and that "the parliament was now the controlling body".

On the other hand he wrote to the IRB that "the policy of the IRB shall be to utilise every power and movement in the nation, it shall influence them in their activities and coordinate them these activities… to secure the maximum organised strength of the Nation – armed, political, social and otherwise – shall be available for its objectives" and that "while accepting the the present government of the Saor Stait the Supreme Council of the IRB is declared the sole government of the Irish Republic until full independence is achieved and a permanent Republican government is established. The authority of the Supreme Council shall be unquestioned by members", suggesting that the possibility that the Irish government would controlled by the IRB either explicity (Collins, O'Duffy and Mulcahy all being IRB members) or from the shadows at least until the establishment of a republic.

Even more controversially I think that given his expressed dislike for both capitalism and socialism, his radical economic and cultural ideas, his advocacy of looking towards mainland Europe (where Italy and Germany were the clear rising stars) and close friendship with O'Duffy (holding him in high regard and even considering him to be his successor), I think there's a possibility Collins may have had or could've come to have sympathies for fascism, especially if interwar Ireland remains economically and culturally stagnant as in OTL.
Would he be a rival to Éamon de Valera for the office of Taoiseach.
 

Deleted member 2186

Is there a chance that if Michael survives de Valera doesn't? Please...
de Valera was more a politician than a soldier, also it would have to happen during the Civil War when both man where on a different side, but i do not know if the Pro-Treaty forces would kill de Valera if they could.
 
Is there a chance that if Michael survives de Valera doesn't? Please...
I'd say de Valera would still survive, he had little influence on the anti-treaty side despite nominally being their head and OTL the executions of anti-treaty fighters only happened after Collins' death as Collins wanted reconciliation, national unity and for the civil war to inflict as little destruction and loss of life as possible while Cosgrave, O'Higgins and Mulcahy considered the anti-treatyites to be criminals rather than legitimate combatants.
 

samcster94

Banned
de Valera was more a politician than a soldier, also it would have to happen during the Civil War when both man where on a different side, but i do not know if the Pro-Treaty forces would kill de Valera if they could.
He might have a rockier road back than OTL where he easily found a road back in less than a decade.
 
Even more controversially I think that given his expressed dislike for both capitalism and socialism, his radical economic and cultural ideas, his advocacy of looking towards mainland Europe (where Italy and Germany were the clear rising stars) and his close friendship with O'Duffy (holding him in high regard and even considering him to be his successor), I think there's a possibility Collins may have had or could've come to have sympathies for fascism, especially if interwar Ireland remains economically and culturally stagnant as in OTL.

Well, how about this scenario:

Collins survives and puts down the anti-treaty forces. But then he realizes that the Boundary Commission won't assign Tyrone and Fermanagh to the Free State, and that Northern Ireland isn't going to crumble. He decides that Ireland must prepare for war to take the Six Counties.

To implement this policy, Collins establishes what amounts to an IRB dictatorship - to continue until Ireland is united. Collins also imposes a ferocious compulsory Gaelicization program along with compulsory military training. Duffy's Blue Shirts get official backing; Irish volunteers serve on the Nationalist side in the Spanish Civil War.

There's a lot of suppressed blowback building. The Gaelicization program is widely resented; the militarism and authoritarianism offend or annoy many as well. Collins' attempt to forge a "cooperative" economic program includes a lot of intrusive regulation and nosey-parker enforcement (something Irishmen have never been happy with), and a fair amount of cronyism, while obstructing economic growth.

In his anti-British fixation, Collins even allies with Nazi Germany. This includes German advisers on the ground propping up the regime. In the wake of the fall of France, Collins wants Ireland to enter the war on the German side and finally regain the Six Counties. Some German troops covertly enter Ireland to prepare the way.

This is the last straw. The British know what's going on through ULTRA, and there are lots of anti-Collins exiles in Britain. There is an anti-Collins coup in Dublin, which is immediately reinforced by British troops. While the Collins regime has instilled its anti-British fanaticism in some of the population, the great majority are so sick of "Collinsism" that they welcome even the British army - especially after several hundred Germans are captured in Ireland. Collins himself flies into exile in Spain.

Ireland returns to Dominion status, nominally including the Six Counties (which actually remain an autonomous subregion), and declares war on Germany.

NOTE: I may be grossly misrepresenting Michael Collins here. I don't know that much about his personality, but I think that his conduct in power is a blank slate - he died before showing how he would rule, and he didn't write down any long"platform" for government. I haven't ascribed any particularly evil actions to him, only misguided ones, so I don't think I am committing libel. He'd hardly be the first hero gone bad.
 
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One interesting thing economically is that Collins expressed a dislike of both capitalism and 'state socialism', and supported the creation of industries along co-operative lines. He also encouraged Ireland to look to countries in mainland Europe such as Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands for inspiration.

Are you referring to the cooperative movement?
 
There's a rather good AH here that has Collins surviving and de Valera marginalised.
That timeline is pretty ASB in my opinion, Ireland introducing conscription and joining the Allies would almost certainly end in a huge uprising which the Germans would be all too happy to support, especially in 1940 when America hadn't joined the war and many expected Britain to lose. A repartition which attempted to include most of NI's Catholic areas would be very messy also: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3a/Religion_or_religion_brought_up_in.png

I don't really see Collins aligning with O'Higgins over Liam Tobin either, especially given that Collins wanted reconciliation and unity among the Republican movement after the civil war rather than marginalising the anti-treatyites. There's the possibility that Collins living might butterfly away the Army Mutiny in the first place.
 
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