WI: Louisiana Purchase in two different scenarios

[DominusNovus]

How might the following two scenarios influence to particulars of the Louisiana Purchase? It can be butterflied away, but I'm going to posit teo constants that won't be butterflied: That the US adopts a Constitution similar to OTL's and that the American government will make some effort to buy Louisiana.

Scenario #1:
The ARW goes better for the rebels, and they break all of Canada off the Brits. However, when the war is over, Quebec decides it wants to go its own way, and establishes its own independent (though allied) republic.

Scenario #2:
The French Revolution does not spiral out of control, and France emerges as a Constitutional Monarchy.

Bonus Question:
Both Scenarios occur.

 

[Drewbdu]

How might the following two scenarios influence to particulars of the Louisiana Purchase? It can be butterflied away, but I'm going to posit teo constants that won't be butterflied: That the US adopts a Constitution similar to OTL's and that the American government will make some effort to buy Louisiana.

Scenario #1:
The ARW goes better for the rebels, and they break all of Canada off the Brits. However, when the war is over, Quebec decides it wants to go its own way, and establishes its own independent (though allied) republic.

Scenario #2:
The French Revolution does not spiral out of control, and France emerges as a Constitutional Monarchy.

Bonus Question:
Both Scenarios occur.

Scenario 1: With presumably no War of 1812, Britain can focus al of their power on Europe, which could cause Napoleon to sell Louisiana sooner than OTL.
Scenario 2: Without Napoleon, and with France maybe keeping Haiti, Louisiana would have no use being sold, so I presume that the Purchase may not happen at all. In the long run we could see a more fragmented North America, with a French Midwest, Mexican West Coast, and American East Coast. Manifest Destiny may not be a "thing" in this timeline as well.

 

[Ziemniak]

Scenario 2: Without Napoleon, and with France maybe keeping Haiti, Louisiana would have no use being sold, so I presume that the Purchase may not happen at all. In the long run we could see a more fragmented North America, with a French Midwest, Mexican West Coast, and American East Coast. Manifest Destiny may not be a "thing" in this timeline as well.

Without Napoleon forcing Spain to sell it back to France in a secret treaty, Louisiana remains Spanish and probably ends up part of Mexico. I always had the idea that in a TL like that Louisiana could be like OTL Texas. It gets overwhelmed by American settlers who then rebel and set up a Republic when the Mexican government does something that is not to their liking. From there it could either go it alone or apply for U.S. annexation.

As for the first scenario, how big is Quebec? Is it just the St. Lawrence river area or do they get OTL Ontario thrown in? What is the status of Rupert's Land? If Quebec is just a tiny thing, I figure the purchase goes pretty much like OTL. But if there's a mega-Quebec that includes most of OTL Canada, then Napoleon might prefer to sell it to them instead if they want it.

 

[funnyhat]

In scenario #1, I'm not sure Canada (it wouldn't call itself Quebec) would want independence. Its population was too small and vulnerable. In any event, I doubt it would be a republic. The Canadiens were very much pro-monarchy at this time, and monarchy was the "normal" form of government back then. Republics were rare.

 

[kodak]

I doubt Mexico would keep Louisiana very long. Mexico would have no way of enforcing law that far north. Whoever settles it first gets it, and the Americans had the means and a bigger demographic. It might end up splitting off like Texas did, getting purchased by the US anyway to the joy of the Mexican government, or being taken in a war.

The Oregon country would probably end up all British.

 

[Agent of SHIELD]

The Oregon country would probably end up all British.

In the 2nd scenario the OP posited, maybe. But in the 1st scenario, without Canada how would Britain retain or even defend the Oregon country in the long run? I guess you could go with the idea that the loyalists moved west but between the massive distance, Native tribes and next to no existing settlements there I don't see it as the first choice.

 

[kodak]

In the 2nd scenario the OP posited, maybe. But in the 1st scenario, without Canada how would Britain retain or even defend the Oregon country in the long run? I guess you could go with the idea that the loyalists moved west but between the massive distance, Native tribes and next to no existing settlements there I don't see it as the first choice.

I was referring to the second scenario in my post.

 

[DominusNovus]

In a scenario where Mexico revolts while Louisiana is under Spanish dominion, could we see a hawkish administration decide to intervene on behalf of the rebels, with the understanding that the US would get Louisiana, and the rebels, Mexico?