WI: Larger House of Bourbon?

[Emperor Constantine]

So in 1710 the star was bright for the House of Bourbon and the French Succession. Louis XIV had eight direct male descendents: his son Le Grand Dauphin, his grandsons: Louis Duc de Bourgogne, Philip V of Spain and Charles Duc de Berri, and his great-grandsons Louis, Duc de Bretagne, Louis, Duc de Anjou and Louis Prince of Asturias. Two of them, Philip V and Louis Prince of Asturias, would later be forced to renounce their succession rights in France. The rest, with the acceptation of Louis de Anjou, would die within 3 years. So my question is thus: what if some or all of them survived ?

Le Grand Dauphin died of smallpox, Bourgogne, his wife and son all died of the measles and de Berri died from a hunting accident. All of these deaths are preventable without being ASB. Smallpox or measles could not be caught and Charles could have not fallen off his horse. What would the reigns of Le Grand Dauphin, Bourgogne, and/or (Bretagne look like? How would a potential regency led by de Berri govern? How would French Court politics develop with the potential for two more Bourbon Cadet Branches? How different would France and Europe be ?

 

[wolf_brother]

If this doesn't butterfly away the War of the Quadruple Alliance, it certainly complicates it.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

If this doesn't butterfly away the War of the Quadruple Alliance, it certainly complicates it.

Could it end up as a second round of the Spanish Succession war? I doubt that whichever Bourbon gets the throne would declare war on his son/brother. At the very least, France would stay neutral. So Spain might end up retaking some of their Italian territories.

 

[wolf_brother]

iirc before the then Triple Alliance officially declared war the Spanish Bourbons had almost convinced the Savoyards to join them in an anti-Hapsburg alliance. Without the threat of France there that might just happen ITTL. That alone would change the dynamics of European great power politics over the next century.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

iirc before the then Triple Alliance officially declared war the Spanish Bourbons had almost convinced the Savoyards to join them in an anti-Hapsburg alliance. Without the threat of France there that might just happen ITTL. That alone would change the dynamics of European great power politics over the next century.

A Franco-Savoy-Spanish Alliance? Weirder things have happened in OTL so its not impossible.
Looking into the Quadruple war, it seems to me the only reason Spain lost was because they couldn't reinforce their armies thanks to Britain destroying their fleet. So would a neutral/Spanish allied France really make a difference? I mean I guess conbining France and Savoy could mean aland route to resupply their armies but the main theater of war was Sicily so IDK if that would make a difference. Would a combined Franco-Spanish (and possibly Savoy) fleet be enough to make Britain think twice about attacking?

 

[Yorel]

The most obvious result is no Regency. Now for a more detailled look...

When he dies, Louis XIV is succeeded by his son, le Grand Dauphin, who becomes TTL Louis XV. When he died, the Grand Dauphin was 50 and if we consider he can live to 60 if not more (His father Louis XIV lived up to the age of 77 while his great grandson (OTL Louis XV) lived up to the age of 64), he will probably rule for 10-15 years. How his reign would look like isn't easy to tell: apparently he was educated to obey his father and not govern but while perceived as indolent, he didn't lack intelligence. And apparently, it was his idea to propose that his second son, Philip, become Charles II's successor in Spain (which wasn't a bad choice if you don't count smallpox).

When the Grand Dauphin (TTL Louis XV) dies, he is probably succeeded by his own son, the Petit Dauphin, who would be TTL Louis XVI. Bourgogne was 30 when he died, we can expect him to be around 50 when he comes on the throne. We can also expect him and his wife (who would likely survive if she doesn't catches smallpox) to have more children as they were very in love. Bourgogne was surrounded by a coterie of dévôts who wished to return to a limited monarchy controlled by the aristocracy. That may be what he would try to make the Monarchy become during his reign.

After him would reign his eldest son, the Duke of Britanny, who would be TTL Louis XVII. How the Duke of Britanny would rule is impossible to know since he died at the age of 5: A lot would depend on how he lives his life, who his tutors are and the results of the butterflies leading to the reigns of his father and grandfather.

The man who became OTL Louis XV probably becomes nothing more than a prince of blood known as the Duke of Anjou. His life is going to be a lot different given the butterflies.

I don't know enough on the War of Spanish Succession to know what would be the end result for Philip V of Spain. That being said, if his father and elder brother survive, the chances of Franco-Spanish Personnal Union are severely disminished which could make him a suitable candidate. I know practically nothing on the War of the Quadruple Alliance so I can't really make a judgement. There is the question of Philip V's abdication in 1724 though: we don't really know why he adbicated and there is a debate. If it was because he felt he could inherit the French throne, then he probably doesn't abdicate. If it is because he was falling into mental disorder, he probably still abdicates. Whatever the results, there is the question of wether or not OTL Louis I of Spain would be affected by the fact there was no smallpox in France as he died of that same illness.

And lastly we have Charles, Duke of Berry. Apparently, he played no political role but was good natured and thus could be supportive of his brother. That being said, him staying alive as few chances of provoking butterflies... Unless his children do play a certain role.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

The most obvious result is no Regency. Now for a more detailled look...

When he dies, Louis XIV is succeeded by his son, le Grand Dauphin, who becomes TTL Louis XV. When he died, the Grand Dauphin was 50 and if we consider he can live to 60 if not more (His father Louis XIV lived up to the age of 77 while his great grandson (OTL Louis XV) lived up to the age of 64), he will probably rule for 10-15 years. How his reign would look like isn't easy to tell: apparently he was educated to obey his father and not govern but while perceived as indolent, he didn't lack intelligence. And apparently, it was his idea to propose that his second son, Philip, become Charles II's successor in Spain (which wasn't a bad choice if you don't count smallpox).

When the Grand Dauphin (TTL Louis XV) dies, he is probably succeeded by his own son, the Petit Dauphin, who would be TTL Louis XVI. Bourgogne was 30 when he died, we can expect him to be around 50 when he comes on the throne. We can also expect him and his wife (who would likely survive if she doesn't catches smallpox) to have more children as they were very in love. Bourgogne was surrounded by a coterie of dévôts who wished to return to a limited monarchy controlled by the aristocracy. That may be what he would try to make the Monarchy become during his reign.

After him would reign his eldest son, the Duke of Britanny, who would be TTL Louis XVII. How the Duke of Britanny would rule is impossible to know since he died at the age of 5: A lot would depend on how he lives his life, who his tutors are and the results of the butterflies leading to the reigns of his father and grandfather.

The man who became OTL Louis XV probably becomes nothing more than a prince of blood known as the Duke of Anjou. His life is going to be a lot different given the butterflies.

I don't know enough on the War of Spanish Succession to know what would be the end result for Philip V of Spain. That being said, if his father and elder brother survive, the chances of Franco-Spanish Personnal Union are severely disminished which could make him a suitable candidate. I know practically nothing on the War of the Quadruple Alliance so I can't really make a judgement. There is the question of Philip V's abdication in 1724 though: we don't really know why he adbicated and there is a debate. If it was because he felt he could inherit the French throne, then he probably doesn't abdicate. If it is because he was falling into mental disorder, he probably still abdicates. Whatever the results, there is the question of wether or not OTL Louis I of Spain would be affected by the fact there was no smallpox in France as he died of that same illness.

And lastly we have Charles, Duke of Berry. Apparently, he played no political role but was good natured and thus could be supportive of his brother. That being said, him staying alive as few chances of provoking butterflies... Unless his children do play a certain role.

I'll admit I don't know much about le Grand Dauphin but I know he and his two half-sisters, the Princesses de Condé and Conti, formed a group called the Cabal de Meudon, which was opposed to his son Bourgogne and his wife, Marie Adelaide of Savoy. So at the very least, the two Princesses are going to have a sizable amount of influence over Louis XV. I'd agree with your idea of a reign of 10 to 15 years. OTL the Bourbons where usually long lived. Hell Charles X lived to be 79 and even then he died of Cholera, not old age.

That would put TTL's Louis XVI around 40 to 45, giving him a possible reign of 15 to 25 years. If he has more children (which is probable since Marie Adelaide was pregnant shortly before she died) then the succession is even more secure. As for his reign, he'll probably attempt to implement a limited monarchybut considering how that when during le Régence, it would probably be abandoned within a few years.

Like you said, we can't really speculate on Bretagne, since he was so young when he died. I would guess we could be a combo of his father and grandfather.

As for Philip V, well he might not abdicate, if the french Succession was the reason. Another possibility is his son's wife. She is an Orleans princess but if the House of Orleans doesn't rule France, via regency, then perhaps a different, higher ranking bride is selected. A surviving Bourgogne could mean he has a daughter, who could be the next Queen of Spain. Another thing I thought of is, with a surviving Anjou and de Berri, the Orleans are pushed father down the line of succession, and if either Berri or Anjou or both, have children then the Orleans loses their spot as the First Prince of the Blood. So if their is still a French Revolution (hard to tell) then having a larger Bourbon dynasty might just mean they replace the main line with a different branch ( though unlikely considering what happened to Philippe Egalite).

 

[isabella]

I think who the Grand Dauphin can die as OTL without any bad consequences for France, the true disaster was the death of Bourgogne (or the Petit Dauphin) and his wife. If they and their older son will survive you have a young but adult King after Louis XIV with many children (surely Adelaide can and will have more children).

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Any other thoughts?