The problem is that Japan will still attack the US at Guam, Wake Island, and the Philippines......unless they want to give up the pacific war entirely? So Roosevelt just needs to reframe why US is fighting and IJA will anyway create plenty of reasons after the fall of the garrisons with its treatment of POWs?
WI: Kido Butai Spotted En Route to Pearl
- Thread starter Sekhmet_D
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They have to go for them now if they dont especially Wake will become ever more fortified relatively quickly with more deliveries? And will act as an ever more useful USN base, at least at first, just for submarines and seaplanes, but later a full fleet base?
Since the KB have been spotted and the U.S. still declares war on Japan, there won't be that "treachery" feeling like in OTL but the "treachery" of an attempted surprise attack will be there. Once the Japanese land in the Philippines, Americans will rally toward the flag after they hear news that Manila was bombed.
But the Japanese attacks on Wake, Guam and the Philippines are on 8th, but they're the other side of the date line, so they are actually only an hour or so later than PH attack, so I'm not sure if you will get much time for a declaration of war and then an attack?
If the force is spotted close, It's going to happen very fast without an official declaration in self-defence in Hawaiian waters and if it's days away the KB will just run away (and give all the others bases a few days of very high state warning with a very good idea of the D-day)?
The U.S. will put all Pacific forces on high alert because now that KB will turn back, there is no telling where the attacks will happen next. Guam and the Philippines are likely targets. Did the Pacific Command at that time realize that the KB were on fumes by the time Hawaii was in striking distance?
I was not discussing the immediate tactical response but the political one
How the Navy and Army Air force respond is open to discussion and depending on where and when the KB are detected would have a impact on this
Running away sure no response but about to attack - game on
But the act of finding the fleet in such a position would I think be treated as a 'reason for war'
There's a mistake here in the very basic scenario: In context Roosevelt has already given "permission" for such a strike as action has already devolved to local commanders. The command in Hawaii would be the ones to decide what to do if the KB is spotted they would not defer to Washington. Again a 'state of war' has already been declared at the end of November and US forces were already on high alert and (supposedly) combat ready.
Congress was already aimed towards a DoW against Japan and the very fact that the KB were sailing near Hawaii would constitute an act of war under the 'current' conditions.
No this is exactly the opposite of the situation. While it would have been nice, it wasn't necessary. The KB found approaching Hawaii, even if no attack takes place, means Japan is going to war and we'd have the declaration (along with attacks on the Philippines among other US holdings) would fit the bill just as well. And the US population would welcome a US attack on the KB due to those attacks even if it was argued "we struck first" because by that point war was inevitable.
Randy
The Kido Butai was neither trained nor equipped to accomplish Pearl Harbor infrastructure destruction to any meaningful degree. Torpedoes and armor piercing bombs would be useless and the relatively small HE bombs carried by the dive bombers (or rearmed Kates) could only provide for limited destruction, particularly in the face of pre-warned and determined air and ground AA opposition. Despite speculation of setting the naval fuel tank farm alight, without special incendiary munitions designed to work on the thick bunker fuel, this would not have been possible, Strafing with 20mm and 7.7 would only be a waste of ammo.
If the PH attack was called off, but the rest of the Japanese plan to initiate hostilities elsewhere continued, I can see the Kido Butai being diverted to hit Wake on the way home. This would cause much more initial destruction on Wake than the historical first attack, but with the Hawaiian defenses fully intact, a robust Wake Relief Force is certain to be quickly dispatched, and it will get through and land this time. Wake will be held.
I suspect your right but given the ambiguity IF the attack is still launched, (and I agree that it's not likely) then he has to do as much damage as possible if he can't target the fleet.
Possibly and likely I'd say but the effect of an intact Pacific Fleet roaming the pacific during the initial phases of the war is going to give different outcomes.
Randy
there still isn't anywhere near enough tankers to support the entire fleet
Indeed. Even a full formation of multi-engined strategic bombers would probably have a hard time accomplishing that mission. One wonders if Genda could have worked out a way to fly G4M rikkos off the decks of carriers ala Doolittle, but perhaps that is already going into alien space bat territory...
How far out did territorial waters extend in December 1941? If the Imperial Japanese are sailing around in international waters when spotted, then wouldn't the onus be on the USA to prove that the Imperial Japanese are up to no good, if the IJN hasn't actually yet launched any attacks?
Edit: Okay, I missed that the opening post claims the IJN have already sunk something but it got a radio message out. Unless the scenario's been subsequently modified that makes them agressors, clear-cut.
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There is absolutely no way the Japanese can innocently explain the presence of a fully armed battle fleet so close to Hawaii during a time of failing negotiations.
I recall seeing a 1940 era map that had delineated the date line as west: "IJN training area" and east "USN training area" and that there was agreement that neither navy would cross this line. The KB crossed this line Nov 30.
By Dec 41 USN was already shooting U-boats on sight in the Atlantic no matter that it was pretending to be at peace...... The IJN was at war in Asia and Europe was at war, nobody would think that a major power moving more than 10 capital ships across an ocean towards the last great neutrals fleet base was anything but a declaration of war? There is simply nothing else in the area apart from Hawaii, if the KB is spotted moving towards it, it's obviously the target.
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Fairly useful.
After the battle, an fueling barge and sub tender were stationed there and Midway was used as “pit stop” for Pearl Harbor based subs transiting to and from patrol areas. This extended their patrol radius and station time by over 1000 miles as well as allowing for replenishment repairs within capability. Eventually a floating dry dock was moved there and more extensive shore support facilities were built to support the surface fleet as well as subs.
In 1943, Seabees completed a second airfield on Sand Island (Henderson Field). It was used as a staging point for attacks on Wake, a patrol airfield, and part of the transpacific ferry and transport system. Its built on fill, and was a navy airfield until NAF Midway closed in the 90s. It’s still the island’s airfield today, although it’s reduced from its days as a navy base.
Midway itself is kind of an artifact now. There’s some support people to run the island and airfield and researchers at the refuge who still use some of the old navy buildings, but the rest are just sitting there. Lots of stuff to see walking around. You have to get over to eastern island to see the actual battle airfield. There’s not much left.
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Midway today is a National Wildlife Refuge for migratory birds. I think most military operations have moved over to Hawaii after 1993.
Yep. the NAF closed out due to BRAC. It was possible to visit in the 2000s, but the FWS had control of the atoll. There’s a monument to the battle, and it was possible to walk some of the ground.
Not sure how it is now, but touring Oahu in the 90s/2000s there were still a lot of sites outside Pearl Harbor as they had been left. MCAS Ewa is overgrown, but could explore and find some old revetments, ramp, and runway on the backside of the former NAS Barbers Point. The coast artillery positions exist in various states of preservation, with Fort de Russey serving as a museum. it’s still possible to see the remains of the Haleiwa strip, and Bellows field. Additionally, Schofield Barracks, Wheler AAF, and Kaneohe Bay all retain prewar buildings, some of which bear cannon and machine gun scars.