WI: JFK Assassinated by Pavlick in 1960

[PresidentZinn]

On December 11, 1960, then President Elect John F. Kennedy came close to assassination when Richard Pavlick, an anti-Catholic religious fanatic, parked his dynamite rigged car outside the Kennedy residence in Palm Beach, Florida. Though he planned to detonate his explosives as Kennedy left for Sunday mass, he relented after catching sight of Kennedy's children.

What would the effects have been, however, if Pavlick had not hesitated and managed to successfully assassinate Kennedy? How would the nation react to the unprecedented event of a President-elect dying before taking office? How would this change the subsequent political environment, and how would Lyndon Johnson govern in the aftermath? What effects does this have on future election cycles as well as the general course of American history?

*Note: I have read Jeff Greenfield's take on this POD in Then Everything Changed, however I am interested in seeing other perspectives on this subject.

 

[Timmy811]

On December 11, 1960, then President Elect John F. Kennedy came close to assassination when Richard Pavlick, an anti-Catholic religious fanatic, parked his dynamite rigged car outside the Kennedy residence in Palm Beach, Florida. Though he planned to detonate his explosives as Kennedy left for Sunday mass, he relented after catching sight of Kennedy's children.

What would the effects have been, however, if Pavlick had not hesitated and managed to successfully assassinate Kennedy? How would the nation react to the unprecedented event of a President-elect dying before taking office? How would this change the subsequent political environment, and how would Lyndon Johnson govern in the aftermath? What effects does this have on future election cycles as well as the general course of American history?

*Note: I have read Jeff Greenfield's take on this POD in Then Everything Changed, however I am interested in seeing other perspectives on this subject.

The electoral votes have been counted in the congress yet. The voters, or the state legislatures could theoretically vote for anyone they wanted.

 

[Lord Grattan]

Johnson's ascension to the presidency, while an almost certainty, will be bumpy as the electoral college had not yet voted at the time of Kennedy's death in TTL. I posted this in a thread a couple years ago on this topic:

JFK's death on 12/11/60 will have immediate ramifications RE: the 1960 Electoral College vote. Would all electors pledged to Kennedy, if instructed to do so by the DNC, vote for a dead man? Would all electors pledged to Kennedy, if instructed to do so by the DNC, vote for Johnson? How many more electoral votes might Harry Bird receive? Also, any elector voting Johnson for President cannot also vote Johnson for VP. Might no one receive an electoral majority for President or VP in TTL? It would be sad, though historically interesting, to have LBJ inagurated as VP and then as POTUS on January 20.

Major civil rights legislation might be passed by Congress and signed into law by Johnson in 1963, though this depends on how the '62 congressional election unfolds. Johnson's Great Society proposals probably develop as per OTL, if he wins in '64.

Also, Congress would definitly adopt and send to the states for ratification a Presidential Succession and Disibility amendment (OTL XXV) in 1961. This might very well delay consideration of a Poll Tax Prohibition amendment (OTL XXIV). Additionally, I wonder whether the states would be so quick in TTL to ratify the D.C. Electoral Vote amendment (OTL XXIII) which was before them at the time?

For institutional memory, here's a link to a thread on this topic from early last year:
JFK assassinated in 1960: elections in 64 and 68?.

 

[RCAF Brat]

Another, equally pertinent question is, with Kennedy dead before he can be inaugurated, and Johnson in early, does Khrushchev still try to put missiles into Cuba? And if so, how badly does it end?

 

[Glass Onion]

Another, equally pertinent question is, with Kennedy dead before he can be inaugurated, and Johnson in early, does Khrushchev still try to put missiles into Cuba? And if so, how badly does it end?

Before we get to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Presidency of Lyndon Johnson has already changed the nation's Cuban policy at least to an extent. Johnson was opposed to all of the covert efforts the Kennedy Administration made to kill Castro, he called it "goddamn murder Inc in the carribean" Of course LBJ often lied and that statement may not reflect the views he would have had as President.


But at the time of the divergence, the Bay of Pigs has not happened yet. Neither has the Berlin crisis. Along with the general Cuban policy I think we should consider how those turn out before jumping ahead.

I do wonder how humiliation obsessed Lyndon Johnson would have handled the Bay of Pigs Fiasco.

 

[MattII]

Kennedy has yet to deliver his 'moon-landing' speech, or commit significant numbers of troops to Vietnam.

 

[Magniac]

The Great Society IOTL got a lot done in five years, I don't think giving LBJ two full terms means, presto, American NHS!!111!!! or anything like that. This applies to this POD, or one where he gets off his butt and beats Kennedy in the West Virginia primary.

But that's policy.

Politically, I feel Johnson could really have used a full eight years to do something approaching a fullpress liberal counter-realignment in the face of the conservative realignment. That's essentially what the liberal narratives about 'What if Bobby '68?' or 'What if HHH '68?' tend towards, but those really are longshot dreams.

Before we get to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Presidency of Lyndon Johnson has already changed the nation's Cuban policy at least to an extent. Johnson was opposed to all of the covert efforts the Kennedy Administration made to kill Castro, he called it "goddamn murder Inc in the carribean" Of course LBJ often lied and that statement may not reflect the views he would have had as President.

Personally I think he was sincere about that, and his denunciation of the Diem coup, because he was repelled by secret war derring do stuff, what with it mostly being the preserve of Ivy League Republican types who were in the habit of undermining FDR's and Truman's legacies.

JFK's partisan color blindness about that whole cohort is a fascinating subject, one that isn't commented on enough IMO.

But at the time of the divergence, the Bay of Pigs has not happened yet. Neither has the Berlin crisis. Along with the general Cuban policy I think we should consider how those turn out before jumping ahead.

I do wonder how humiliation obsessed Lyndon Johnson would have handled the Bay of Pigs Fiasco.

I could say what I think he's inclined to do, but a question to the board first; is there any serious 'Bay of Pigs US invasion' stuff here on After 1900? I've never noticed anything along those lines.

 

[Sicarius]

Among other things, this allows Johnson to pick his own folks for his administration, and not have to beg and wheedle the Kennedy people to stay on, most notably his hated RFK. I don't know if Kennedy had already offered people their OTL positions by this point, but it would be much easier to Johnson to get around that even if so, and LBJ was the kind of guy who loved giving jobs to his cronies.

 

[Magniac]

LBJ was the kind of guy who loved giving jobs to his cronies.

Yes and no; his own WH senior staff and senate-confirmable picks were a mix of DC legal insiders versus the kind of people we'd now think of as Sherrod Brown heartland liberals. You ever hear of Bill Moyers?

His 'worst' crony pick for a top position, Abe Fortas for SCOTUS, has a more politically & intellectually impressive legacy than JFK's biggest crony, Douglas Dillon at treasury. Of course John Connally didn't get to stain the Johnson admin ala Nixon's, so we never saw the worst Texans getting appointed to cabinet level.

But LBJ ascending in '60? He could well pick Fullbright as his secretary of state.

 

[VidaLaVida]

Ever read Jeff Greenfield's Then Everything Changed? The first story (out of three) in the book is on this exact premise. The assassination leads to an early LBJ presidency, as the Constitution says that the vice president-elect should be elected in such a situation.

It's a good read, and probably the best story out of the three written in the book (the other two are "Robert F. Kennedy lives and is elected in 1968," and "Ford is reelected in 1976"). More than an AH, it's an interesting historical character study of Lyndon Johnson, and just how deeply his worldview and personality differed from JFK's, and how those differences would've led him to interpret the issues that America faced in the early 60's much differently than Kennedy would've. I recommend it.

 

[Nofix]

So the VP slot is empty for the next 4 years? Any chance the 25th Amendment is passed early? And are Rayburn and McCormack (assuming no butterflies these guys are still SotH) going to be more guarded as they're the next in line?