WI: Iberian Union remains unified

[woll]

The Iberian Union was the union of Spain and Portugal as the name implies. What would the consequences of a unified Iberian peninsula be? I know one would be that the Netherlands would be able to keep their colony in Brazil. How would it remain unified? I think that it could remain unified if Portuguese nobles had a place in the Cortes it could go for a bit longer. Also, Willem II might not die as earlier as a result and the First Stadtholderless Period wouldn't be a thing as a result. The 30 years war also might be longer.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

On the contrary, the Thirty Years' War should last less.
If the imperious manage to win quickly in Germany they can then quickly support the Spaniards in the United Provinces and put an end to the 80-year war more quickly by favouring the Spaniards over the OTL.
It is also necessary to avoid war with France and to prevent her from putting her finger in the Hapsburg gear. For that, Richelieu and Louis XIII must die quickly and Gaston d'Orléans must become King. With his pro-Austrian mother guiding him, they will not compromise the Habsburg policy and may even help them in a surge of Catholic faith.
Without these wars Spain can concentrate on Portugal.

 

[EMT]

The Iberian Union of OTL can be saved with better monarchs, administrators, or generals at the helm of Spain; there's lots of ways to go about it. Castille was essentially lording over Aragon and Portugal and trying to centralize them into a greater Castillian state in this time period rather than trying to properly unify the crowns. The easiest and most obvious example is how little priority the Spanish gave towards the defense of Portuguese possessions overseas while expecting them to help foot the bill for Castillian adventures in the rest of Europe, or the increase in taxation on the other Iberian crowns with no tangible benefits to either the Aragonese or Portuguese.

The best-case scenario IMO, would be to split the Hapsburg realm differently so that the Netherlands goes to the Austrian branch while Spain can stay focused on Italy and Iberia. Let's say that Charles V can't arrange a marriage to Mary of England or she simply dies before a marriage can be arranged. Without England in the Hapsburg orbit, the Netherlands are seen as ungovernable from Castille by Charles and he instead gives the Netherlands to his brother. No Netherlands means that Spain's great albatross is gone and out of their hair. This shouldn't butterfly the inhericonquest of Portugal as IOTL, and gives Spain the breathing room to centralize Iberia without a constant, never-ending war that drains manpower and wealth like a siphon and on better terms. The Netherlands are also unlikely to revolt under the reign of Ferdinard, based on what I'm reading of his policies with respect to religion. Milan I think could go either way, but I'm going to assume it goes to Spain as IOTL.

Spain could theoretically crush the Portuguese on land after they revolt but it's not conductive towards a lasting Iberian Union; if anything I think there'd be even more English and French backing in the future to upend Spanish rule in Portugal and the Portuguese population would be further radicalized against Castille or the concept of a unified Spain.

So going with a scenario that has the Netherlands going to the Austrian Hapsburgs and Spain swoops into Portugal as IOTL, let's say a Duke of Oliviares analogue comes along wanting to centralize the realm. With the only real enemies that the Spanish have to worry about being the Franco-Ottoman alliance, both Aragon and Portugal are likely to have greater support for these wars for their own reasons. For Aragon this is to secure Italy from both French and Ottoman incursions, combat North African piracy, and to hold the border with France. For Portugal this continues their fight against the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean and their anti-French colonial adventures of OTL such as when the French tried to settle a colony in Brazil.

In such a scenario where the enemies are common to all three crowns, I can see far greater enthusiasm(which is to say more than almost nothing) for centralization. I don't see it being smooth, but administrators that are juggling less plates than OTL with far less expenses are more likely to succeed.

 

[Janprimus]

@EMT: interesting analysis. IMHO in a scenario, where Charles V would transfer away his patrimony, the Burgundian Inheritance, from his son's inheritance, then if only as kind of compensation he would allow Philip II to keep the duchy of Milan. I know that the Austrian Habsburgs also had claims on Milan, given the strategic value, also to protect the Austrian Hereditary Lands. Still Milan in friendly Spanish hands is preferable over a French Milan.
Moreover Ferdinand, with more realistic religious policies than either Charles V or Philip II could continue to profit from the Netherlands like the 'native' Charles V, something the 'foreigner' Philip II never could. For starters he broke his promise to regularly visit the Burgundian Netherlands, he visited once and never returned, whereas Charles V was 'one of them'. Given the ability that the Spanish raised Ferdinand showed to integrate in his Austrian possessions and the Empire.

Still IMHO a better division between Castille & Aragon and Austria & Burgundy and the Empire, might be achieved easier when Philip the Handsome survives. Since otherwise, knowing Charles V, he might give the Burgundian Inheritance to his daughter Mary, married to the eldest son of Ferdinand, Maximilian (her cousin), than to give it directly to Ferdinand at that stage.

Another scenario could be one, where Maximilian I of Austria outlives Ferdinand of Aragon for a while. Then Ferdinand could be positioned as the Habsburg heir in the Empire. Charles will get Castille & Aragon, while Ferdinand will receive 'Burgundy' and later Austria.

 

[kasumigenx]

Actually the Dutch and English had betrayed Portugal that they lost colonies for them.

 

[UnaiB]

@Lusitania

 

[Phalamus]

I know one would be that the Netherlands would be able to keep their colony in Brazil.

Dutch Brazil was a ticking time bomb. A small, isolated colony of a protestant nation with an overwhelmingly roman catholic population, and with a massive catholic colony to the south which just happens to share the same language and culture as the majority of Dutch Brazil's population, is not going to last very long. Sooner or later, a revolt is inevitable, and please do note that the Portuguese IOTL did absolutely nothing to recover these territories. The luso-brazillian population of Northeastern Brazil kicked out the Dutch entirely by themselves.

Also, given that a surviving Iberian Union pressuposes that the Spanish crown spent a lot more money and effort defending Portugal's colonial possessions ITTL, it's unlikely that the Dutch would even be able to gain a foothold in Brazil to begin with...

I think that it could remain unified if Portuguese nobles had a place in the Cortes it could go for a bit longer

Portugal and Castille had separate Cortes at this time, as had Aragon if I'm not mistaken. If the Habsgurgs tried to unify the three kingdoms and have a pan-Iberian Cortes in Madrid, Portuguese noblemen and merchants would see their power reduced, not increased, as they would be a minority. Naturally, this isn't something that would be popular in Portugal without a lot of changes.

The Iberian Union can only last longer if the Portuguese elites feel that they can trust the Spanish crown to protect their colonial interests, it's as simple as that.

In such a scenario where the enemies are common to all three crowns, I can see far greater enthusiasm(which is to say more than almost nothing) for centralization. I don't see it being smooth, but administrators that are juggling less plates than OTL with far less expenses are more likely to succeed.

The problem is that defense against foreign enemies is not the only concern of the Portuguese elites. They would always want to retain control of the administration of Portugal's colonial possessions (which was very centralized in Lisbon), and most important of all, they would want to retain control of customs and taxation of colonial profits. Given that centralization would make them lose a lot of political influence, it would naturally take these things out of their control.

It would take a lot of bribery, threats and political malabarisms to actually get this to work, but I'm not going to say that it's impossible in a TL where the Iberian Union doesn't lead to a massive decline in the profitability of Portuguese colonial ventures.

 

[Lusitania]

The Portuguese elite had supported Spanish claim to Portuguese throne in 1580 on hopes of increased strengthening of Portuguese empire and access to Spanish empire.

for the union to of lasted it means that we need to have a different Spain in its place. By the beginning of the 17th century the Spanish were deeply interwoven into the politics of the European continent and could not afford both resources, attention or personnel to defend and strengthen both its and Portuguese empire.

therefore to imagine a surviving union in which Spanish crown has both the ability and desire to protect Portuguese and Spanish overseas empires begs the question of that Spain would of even have been able to institute the union in first place. A politically and economically weaker Spanish monarchy would .not of been able to bribe the Portuguese nobles. For if they had all United in opposition to Spain they would of been able to maintain Portuguese independence.

We cannot simply say one or two small things changing in Spanish favor would of resulted in Spain having both resources and ability to maintain union. Spain fought two wars on the Iberian península, one against Portuguese independence and second one against Aragonese independence.

In past threads on similar topic we have argued and pointed out that Spanish throne needed major changes for it to maintain the union and those stipulated in this thread would not of resolved anything. In fact I argue that it would of made the Spanish predicament even worse. For every victory would of resulted in Spain alienating its neighbors more and resulting in a greater coalition against Spain. France abd Who ever is in charge cannot let Spain get bigger and stronger for it fears being surrounded by Spain on both south and East.

Spanish religious thinking d philosophy would result in its attack against all those who are not catholic so it would increase its efforts against Protestant movement which would of made the 30 year war even messier and bigger drain on Spain. Lastly the larger it got the more corrupt it became and the less effective it was at accomplishing its goals.

so I once again I state that union was impossible to maintain due to all of Spain’s problems. A different Spain would not of been as successful in implementing the union.

 

[isabella]

@EMT: interesting analysis. IMHO in a scenario, where Charles V would transfer away his patrimony, the Burgundian Inheritance, from his son's inheritance, then if only as kind of compensation he would allow Philip II to keep the duchy of Milan. I know that the Austrian Habsburgs also had claims on Milan, given the strategic value, also to protect the Austrian Hereditary Lands. Still Milan in friendly Spanish hands is preferable over a French Milan.
Moreover Ferdinand, with more realistic religious policies than either Charles V or Philip II could continue to profit from the Netherlands like the 'native' Charles V, something the 'foreigner' Philip II never could. For starters he broke his promise to regularly visit the Burgundian Netherlands, he visited once and never returned, whereas Charles V was 'one of them'. Given the ability that the Spanish raised Ferdinand showed to integrate in his Austrian possessions and the Empire.

Still IMHO a better division between Castille & Aragon and Austria & Burgundy and the Empire, might be achieved easier when Philip the Handsome survives. Since otherwise, knowing Charles V, he might give the Burgundian Inheritance to his daughter Mary, married to the eldest son of Ferdinand, Maximilian (her cousin), than to give it directly to Ferdinand at that stage.

Another scenario could be one, where Maximilian I of Austria outlives Ferdinand of Aragon for a while. Then Ferdinand could be positioned as the Habsburg heir in the Empire. Charles will get Castille & Aragon, while Ferdinand will receive 'Burgundy' and later Austria.

Charles V giving Burgundy to his daughter Maria work or Charles V can have another surviving son by Isabella of Portugal or remarry with issue after her death.
Considering who in OTL Maximilian lived three years more than Ferdinand II and who Karl was Duke of Burgundy since the death of his father, the right way to develop your idea is the opposite with Ferdinand II living longer than Maximilian (so who the Cortes of Castile and Aragon would be more amenable to appoint the young Ferdinand of Austria - Spanish born and raised and now old enough to rule and likely engaged to Isabella of Portugal - as heir instead of his older brother, the Holy Roman Emperor Karl V). Then you have a Karl with Austria and Burgundy and not so friendly with the Spanish Ferdinand

 

[isabella]

The Iberian Union of OTL can be saved with better monarchs, administrators, or generals at the helm of Spain; there's lots of ways to go about it. Castille was essentially lording over Aragon and Portugal and trying to centralize them into a greater Castillian state in this time period rather than trying to properly unify the crowns. The easiest and most obvious example is how little priority the Spanish gave towards the defense of Portuguese possessions overseas while expecting them to help foot the bill for Castillian adventures in the rest of Europe, or the increase in taxation on the other Iberian crowns with no tangible benefits to either the Aragonese or Portuguese.

The best-case scenario IMO, would be to split the Hapsburg realm differently so that the Netherlands goes to the Austrian branch while Spain can stay focused on Italy and Iberia. Let's say that Charles V can't arrange a marriage to Mary of England or she simply dies before a marriage can be arranged. Without England in the Hapsburg orbit, the Netherlands are seen as ungovernable from Castille by Charles and he instead gives the Netherlands to his brother. No Netherlands means that Spain's great albatross is gone and out of their hair. This shouldn't butterfly the inhericonquest of Portugal as IOTL, and gives Spain the breathing room to centralize Iberia without a constant, never-ending war that drains manpower and wealth like a siphon and on better terms. The Netherlands are also unlikely to revolt under the reign of Ferdinard, based on what I'm reading of his policies with respect to religion. Milan I think could go either way, but I'm going to assume it goes to Spain as IOTL.

Spain could theoretically crush the Portuguese on land after they revolt but it's not conductive towards a lasting Iberian Union; if anything I think there'd be even more English and French backing in the future to upend Spanish rule in Portugal and the Portuguese population would be further radicalized against Castille or the concept of a unified Spain.

So going with a scenario that has the Netherlands going to the Austrian Hapsburgs and Spain swoops into Portugal as IOTL, let's say a Duke of Oliviares analogue comes along wanting to centralize the realm. With the only real enemies that the Spanish have to worry about being the Franco-Ottoman alliance, both Aragon and Portugal are likely to have greater support for these wars for their own reasons. For Aragon this is to secure Italy from both French and Ottoman incursions, combat North African piracy, and to hold the border with France. For Portugal this continues their fight against the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean and their anti-French colonial adventures of OTL such as when the French tried to settle a colony in Brazil.

In such a scenario where the enemies are common to all three crowns, I can see far greater enthusiasm(which is to say more than almost nothing) for centralization. I don't see it being smooth, but administrators that are juggling less plates than OTL with far less expenses are more likely to succeed.

I think who a different kind of union also would help... If don Carlos - eldest son of Philip II - had lived or left heirs, his line would have ruled Portugal after Sebastian’s death without any opposition and then Portugal would be fully integrated in ATL Spain after Philip’s death.
Carlos being both the most legitimate heir, the strongest contender and a King who at least in the immediate would rule/live in Portugal for most of the time would not be forced to make any of the concessions who Philip II was forced to do in OTL

 

[woll]

The worst-case scenario for this would be Spain losing the 30 years war, like IOTL and then them losing all of the Portuguese colonies to other European powers. Perhaps the revolt just never happens, then the Dutch would have Brazil, England would get a few scattered colonies, and I'm sure other countries would jump at the opportunity to get some more colonial gains.

 

[EMT]

I think who a different kind of union also would help... If don Carlos - eldest son of Philip II - had lived or left heirs, his line would have ruled Portugal after Sebastian’s death without any opposition and then Portugal would be fully integrated in ATL Spain after Philip’s death.
Carlos being both the most legitimate heir, the strongest contender and a King who at least in the immediate would rule/live in Portugal for most of the time would not be forced to make any of the concessions who Philip II was forced to do in OTL

I agree; by far the best way is to reshuffle how a united Iberia comes about. I tried to stick to the 'Iberian Union' as defined by Phillip II seizing a disputed crown until the Portuguese Restoration War but I'm far, far more in favor/interested in alternatives like Don Carlos as you mention, Miguel Da Paz living, an alternative Castillian War of Succession, etc. If there's one thing I'm happy about on here recently is that there's a lot of ATL Spain TLs that go into the topic.

@Lusitania What do you think? Would the Portuguese(if not in charge of an Iberian union) be amenable to universal access to all Iberian colonies for all Iberian states, or would they try to protect their own colonies by not providing Castillian/Aragonese merchants access to their own while trying to seek access to Castillian colonies as a concession? I can't find good info on what exactly the Portuguese nobility hoped to achieve by supporting Phillip II beyond what you stated earlier about access to the Spanish Empire.

Maybe an early colonial dispute in an ATL Iberian Union between Castille and Portugal, rather than going to the Pope, goes to their joint King for mediation? How plausible would it be for a power play by the monarch to declare all overseas affairs(aside from North Africa) being treated as answering to the King/unified Iberian crown first, and Portugal/Castille second? The later it happens the worse the lashback would be, but if it's early enough I think it could feasibly pass (most) scrutiny and serve as the founding policy for managing colonial enterprises through if not joint cooperation, organized cooperation from the top that minimizes conflicts and looks to treat all ventures fairly.

 

[Lusitania]

What I felt could of been best way for the Iberian union to existed for longer period would of been that Spanish king place one of his sons in Lisbon. Now that son or his heir might of decided that an independent Portugal with him as king might be in order but that for future.

Spain has to have the resources, manpower and $$ to help Portugal to not only defeat its enemies in Indian Ocean and East Indies plus to stop and defeat Dutch.

now do that and nobles snd country be happy ( for now). But don’t try to incorporate Portugal into Spain.

the Iberian union had one positive implication for Portuguese and that was in Brazil where the previous treaty limiting Portuguese claims not applicable. With a continuing Iberian union that Rio de la plata be given to Portugal or at least all lands East of the River would also help. Remember bribing helps.

as for access the Spanish and Portuguese both had very centralized colonial control. Portugal was through Lisbon while Spain was through Seville. You not going to change that but allow Spanish merchants into Lisbon and vice verse so that each country still allowed to control their respective colonies but not allow greater influx of people.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Have Miguel da Paz survive and rule both Portugal and Spain.

 

[Chris S]

The Portuguese elite had supported Spanish claim to Portuguese throne in 1580 on hopes of increased strengthening of Portuguese empire and access to Spanish empire.

for the union to of lasted it means that we need to have a different Spain in its place. By the beginning of the 17th century the Spanish were deeply interwoven into the politics of the European continent and could not afford both resources, attention or personnel to defend and strengthen both its and Portuguese empire.

therefore to imagine a surviving union in which Spanish crown has both the ability and desire to protect Portuguese and Spanish overseas empires begs the question of that Spain would of even have been able to institute the union in first place. A politically and economically weaker Spanish monarchy would .not of been able to bribe the Portuguese nobles. For if they had all United in opposition to Spain they would of been able to maintain Portuguese independence.

......

In past threads on similar topic we have argued and pointed out that Spanish throne needed major changes for it to maintain the union and those stipulated in this thread would not of resolved anything. In fact I argue that it would of made the Spanish predicament even worse. For every victory would of resulted in Spain alienating its neighbors more and resulting in a greater coalition against Spain. France abd Who ever is in charge cannot let Spain get bigger and stronger for it fears being surrounded by Spain on both south and East.

Spanish religious thinking d philosophy would result in its attack against all those who are not catholic so it would increase its efforts against Protestant movement which would of made the 30 year war even messier and bigger drain on Spain. Lastly the larger it got the more corrupt it became and the less effective it was at accomplishing its goals.

So Lusitania, you don't even think that this scenario by EMT might have lead to the Iberian Union being formed and lasting perhaps longer than in OTL (even if not indefinitely)?

The Iberian Union of OTL can be saved with better monarchs, administrators, or generals at the helm of Spain; there's lots of ways to go about it. Castille was essentially lording over Aragon and Portugal and trying to centralize them into a greater Castillian state in this time period rather than trying to properly unify the crowns. The easiest and most obvious example is how little priority the Spanish gave towards the defense of Portuguese possessions overseas while expecting them to help foot the bill for Castillian adventures in the rest of Europe, or the increase in taxation on the other Iberian crowns with no tangible benefits to either the Aragonese or Portuguese.

The best-case scenario IMO, would be to split the Hapsburg realm differently so that the Netherlands goes to the Austrian branch while Spain can stay focused on Italy and Iberia. Let's say that Charles V can't arrange a marriage to Mary of England or she simply dies before a marriage can be arranged. Without England in the Hapsburg orbit, the Netherlands are seen as ungovernable from Castille by Charles and he instead gives the Netherlands to his brother. No Netherlands means that Spain's great albatross is gone and out of their hair. This shouldn't butterfly the inhericonquest of Portugal as IOTL, and gives Spain the breathing room to centralize Iberia without a constant, never-ending war that drains manpower and wealth like a siphon and on better terms. .........

Spain could theoretically crush the Portuguese on land after they revolt but it's not conductive towards a lasting Iberian Union; if anything I think there'd be even more English and French backing in the future to upend Spanish rule in Portugal and the Portuguese population would be further radicalized against Castille or the concept of a unified Spain.

So going with a scenario that has the Netherlands going to the Austrian Hapsburgs and Spain swoops into Portugal as IOTL, let's say a Duke of Oliviares analogue comes along wanting to centralize the realm. With the only real enemies that the Spanish have to worry about being the Franco-Ottoman alliance, both Aragon and Portugal are likely to have greater support for these wars for their own reasons. For Aragon this is to secure Italy from both French and Ottoman incursions, combat North African piracy, and to hold the border with France. For Portugal this continues their fight against the Ottomans in the Indian Ocean and their anti-French colonial adventures of OTL such as when the French tried to settle a colony in Brazil.

Because it seems to unwind Spain from a lot of the politics of the European continent except where such politics intersects with Portuguese interests regarding their own Empire (insofar as being opposed to France and the Ottomans also happens to be something that is necessary for the Portuguese empire to be defended too).

 

[Lusitania]

So Lusitania, you don't even think that this scenario by EMT might have lead to the Iberian Union being formed and lasting perhaps longer than in OTL (even if not indefinitely)?



Because it seems to unwind Spain from a lot of the politics of the European continent except where such politics intersects with Portuguese interests regarding their own Empire (insofar as being opposed to France and the Ottomans also happens to be something that is necessary for the Portuguese empire to be defended too).

The problem with the scenario of the thread is that it does not change change the inherent attitude and flaw of the Hapsburg Spanish European model or placate its adversaries. In fact what you have done is provided Spain with greater resources to attack the Protestant forces. Are we going to say that a stronger Spain without worry about France would not redouble it’s attack on Dutch? That it would not redouble it’s attacks on Protestants in germanies? No it would be the opposite so it would go after those important problems in their minds.

now a stronger Spain about to conquer or subjugate more territory would frighten more countries and whoever was in France be getting worried (if not they be replaced by those who would be) for the last thing France wants is to be surrounded by Spain on all sides.

all this lead us to define that Spain only has finite resources, manpower and $$ and that Low Countries, and rise of Protestantism are its main purposes and priorities not investing in the Spanish and especially portuguese empire which it saw as only a means to gain more riches for its endeavors in Europe.

for many people including me have stated that as long as Spain’s monarchs are Europe centered it cannot maintain Portugal in union. To accomplish the union it must of had to eject the Europe centered attitude but that came with the baggage of being Hapsburg.

so show me an Iberian union that gives up its European branch and fixation and we have a possibility. Have Philip in 1590 or 1610 the latest divide his realm between his heirs. One becomes King of Hapsburg, another in Italy while Madrid concentrated on Iberian peninsula its huge dual colonial empire. Then you have chance to strengthen empire and save union. But can Spanish king cut off part of empire? Be very hard for it goes against human nature. History teaches us that when empires get too big and are divided those weaker sections fall faster.

 

[Wendell]

The best way to "preserve" the Iberian Union is to alter the circumstances and/or timing of its formation.

 

[Lusitania]

The best way to "preserve" the Iberian Union is to alter the circumstances and/or timing of its formation.

But the issue is that Spanish monarchies have a fundamental european centered problem that will suck it dry and lead to its demise. Without changing that Spain is doomed to be splintered apart due to it being unable to provide what the different regions wanted. Trying to incorporate Portugal further into the country means it will have to dedicate greater resources into holding the territories, resources it not have for other actions.

therefore break Hapsburg grip on Spain by eliminating that either by not happening or earlier collapse and Spain concentrate on Iberian peninsula, Italian peninsula and overseas empire. But you can’t say that one victory here or there would solve its problems. Spain could not fight both Aragonese and Portuguese forces while maintaining its hold and forces elsewhere in Europe.

 

[BlueFlowwer]

Miguel da Paz surviving would pretty much prove the base for every solution for both Spain and the Hapsburgs.

 

[Wendell]

But the issue is that Spanish monarchies have a fundamental european centered problem that will suck it dry and lead to its demise. Without changing that Spain is doomed to be splintered apart due to it being unable to provide what the different regions wanted. Trying to incorporate Portugal further into the country means it will have to dedicate greater resources into holding the territories, resources it not have for other actions.

therefore break Hapsburg grip on Spain by eliminating that either by not happening or earlier collapse and Spain concentrate on Iberian peninsula, Italian peninsula and overseas empire. But you can’t say that one victory here or there would solve its problems. Spain could not fight both Aragonese and Portuguese forces while maintaining its hold and forces elsewhere in Europe.

In circumstances in which Spain is not tethered to Austria, its commitments to Europe are substantially reduced. Miguel de la Paz lives, and voila.