WI: Hezbollah Singapore Plot Successful

The US and Hezbollah have a history of antagonism. Hezbollah has committed or had ties to at least three attacks against US interests:
  • US Embassy Bombing, Beirut, 1983
  • Khobar Towers Bombing, Saudi Arabia, 1996
  • Beirut Barracks Bombing, 1983
In 1995, Hezbollah began preparing for an attack on US and Israeli sailors in Singapore. The attack was planned for 1997, but was broken up by Singapore officials: http://www.singapore-window.org/sw02/020609a2.htm

What if the plot were sucessful? OTL, Clinton considered bombing Iran after the Khobar Towers in 1996, but decided not to due to lack of evidence. If US ships are attacked on the other side of the continent just one year after Khobar, Clinton will be compelled to act.

I think this clip from an NPR intreview sums up what would happen next nicely:

POLLACK: One of the most remarkable moments for me, one of the moments where I felt like, boy, this game is now headed irretrievably into war, was when the Iranians are debating what to do after the American initial move. The game starts with a terrorist attack, an Irani terrorist attack, that get's too out of hand, too big. The United States decides to respond, and one of the things the United States decides to do is to hit a remote Irani Revolutionary Guards' facility. And the Americans were hoping that the Iranians would see this as a minimal American response.

SIEGEL: It was the least they would do, yeah.

POLLACK: Exactly. Literally the least the American people would accept. The Iranian saw it as the Americans crossing a red line. And the Iranian team also decided that having repeatedly said that if the United States hits Iran, we will close the Strait of Hormuz, they felt compelled to then do something in the Strait of Hormuz. Now according to the American team, if the Iranians had done anything else - and the Iranian team came up with a series of responses - everything else they did would've produced a peaceful American response thereafter. But the Iranian moves in the Strait of Hormuz were what pushed the Americans higher up on the escalation ladder.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...o5L6UN-VhGdOBxpww&sig2=Xas750xKZpaWteRhjE7c7g

So what do you think? How might the US retaliate against Iran and Hezbollah? How would this affect the situation in Lebanon? Might the US invade Hezbollah territory in Lebanon?
 
Probably much stronger global presence of the SAF in some of the Middle Eastern wars latter on. There were Singaporean soldiers in Afghanistan, performing non-combat roles, you might expect active combat roles if any of the attacked were successful.

Singapore showed itself to be competent in its counter-terrorism and immensely lucky.
 
Singapore now has a dog in the fight, so intel efforts and money get spent making Hezbolas life harder.

Singapores a small country but it does mean less places to store their money and more enemies, so future operations become more difficult.
 
I was thinking more of the US/Israeli response. the atrack would have taken place in Singapore, and no doubt some of their citizens would have been killed, but the target was US and Israeli ships, sailors and embassies, not Singapore itself
 
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