WI: Hastert Presidency

Brazilianguy

In a scenario that Bush was killed by Arutyunian in 2005 in Georgia (the country) and Cheney die of an heart attack after receiving the news (he has already three heart attacks before, the last in 2001), how would be the presidency of Dennis Hastert, the speaker of the house at the time?

Remembering that Hastert serve 13 months of prison in 2014 after being discovered that he was paying hush money to cover up repeated incidents of child molestation when he was a high school coach, being alleged that he has mollested at least four boys as young as 14 years of age when he was a high school wrestling coach. How would it change the public view on the government when this facts come to the public eyes (considering that he being president doesn´t bring this earlier)?
 

overoceans

Brazilianguy said:
being alleged that he has mollested at least four boys as young as 14 years of age when he was a high school wrestling coach. How would it change the public view on the government when this facts come to the public eyes
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By "the government", do you mean the whole government, ie. all elected officials, the bureaucracy, military etc?

If so, I don't think the revelations are gonna make much difference. Someone who expects the government to perform functions X, Y, and Z is still gonna expect them to do that, regardless of the moral status of the president. No one's gonna say eg. "Well, with the POTUS being a predator, how can we trust those guys to run Social Security?"

As for partisan perceptions, I don't think it'll make much difference there, either. Liberal Democrats will just have more evidence that Republicans are all a bunch of sexually repressed fuck-ups, posing as morally superior in order to cover up just how debauched they really are. And Republicans will just come back with "Yeah, child molesting is bad and everything, but TED KENNEDY MURDERED A WOMAN!"

However...

If the Republicans initially try to engage in some sort of cover-up which eventually comes to light, THAT could be damaging, big time. You can dismiss a lone-actor sex offendor as just one guy; not so much if other people in his administration, congress etc. are found to have helped him get away with his crimes. In that scenario, the floating-middle probably swings heavily to the Democrats for at least a couple of electoral cycles.
 

Brazilianguy

overoceans said:
By "the government", do you mean the whole government, ie. all elected officials, the bureaucracy, military etc?

If so, I don't think the revelations are gonna make much difference. Someone who expects the government to perform functions X, Y, and Z is still gonna expect them to do that, regardless of the moral status of the president. No one's gonna say eg. "Well, with the POTUS being a predator, how can we trust those guys to run Social Security?"
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I expressed myself wrong, what i was trying to say was about the view on politicians, like people thinking: ''how the fuck we make a child molester ascend to the highest political rank?and, if he had an political career of more than 20 years, became president and only get caught now, what else we didnt know about our politicians? this kind of stuff that could aggravate the public distrust of the politicians.
 

Don Corleone

There have been plenty of sexual predators in high places. Congress has had Bob Packwood, Mel Reynolds, Eric Massa, and Mark Foley within living memory and using a 10+ years ago cutoff.

Only thing unique here is Hastert would have gotten into the Oval Office, but that was a freak series of events. In order to feel better about ourselves we would collectively say "The voters never would have elected that guy President." Speakers are, best case, liked only by strong partisans.

It would be very bad for the GOP. Hastert now owns the botched Katrina response, and nobody is emotionally invested in him so there's less effort to shift blame to Blanco/Nagin. Abramoff scandal happens on schedule. Our enemies smell blood in the water and Iraq goes worse than OTL. And we find out about his sordid past earlier.

Probably gets impeached and removed unless he resigns - he's radioactive and the GOP will be eager to cut its losses by throwing him under the bus. 2006 midterms are even more of a bloodbath.

I can see Romney getting the nomination in this scenario because a choirboy provides the best moral contrast to Hastert. Financial meltdown likely happens on schedule. 2008 is slightly blueshifted. GOP brand is more damaged but Romney wasn't in Congress, doesn't have character issues, and unlike McCain can say "I have the expertise to fix this". Obama/HRC/Edwards will counter with "Wall Street got us into this mess".
 

overoceans

Brazilianguy said:
I expressed myself wrong, what i was trying to say was about the view on politicians, like people thinking: ''how the fuck we make a child molester ascend to the highest political rank?and, if he had an political career of more than 20 years, became president and only get caught now, what else we didnt know about our politicians? this kind of stuff that could aggravate the public distrust of the politicians.
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Yeah, it would probably aggravate the distrust of politicians a little more than would, say, another blase financial scandal. "Oh my God, what sort of people are we sending to Washington these days?" would be uttered with more of a horrified undertone than usual.

But at the end of the day, that's not gonna make a lot of difference. People want governments to exist, and in a democracy politicians are needed to run governments, so there's not going to be any significant taboo emerging against that profession. The Presidency will still be viewed as a highly desirable job.
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

The Presidential Succession Act has never been tested, but my reading of the 25th Amendment is that if an official acting as President nominates a Vice President, once the Vice President is confirmed by Congress, he or she immediately becomes President.
 

Don Corleone

Galba Otho Vitelius said:
The Presidential Succession Act has never been tested, but my reading of the 25th Amendment is that if an official acting as President nominates a Vice President, once the Vice President is confirmed by Congress, he or she immediately becomes President.
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I think the scenario is the 2005 assassination attempt succeeds and Cheney dies of a heart attack upon hearing the news. So there's no time to nominate a veep and Hastert is the next man up.

By the time we find out he's a pedophile he will have nominated a VP and Congress will have approved the pick. Most likely a placeholder/elder statesman (or woman - why not check off a first while you're at it?)

When Hastert leaves in disgrace that person is the new President but has no political base and no chance of winning a full term.
 
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Jonathan

Jonathan

jack_donaghy_is_the_shado said:
Hastert should have a life sentence in Fort Leavenworth.

IMHO, child molesting deserves the death penalty, but fat chance he'll get that sentence.
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Hastert would most likely get the same sentence (15 months as he was only charged with unlawfully structuring the withdrawal of $952,000 in cash, he was never convicted as a child molester) and I wouldn’t be surprised if his VP didn’t pull a Ford and pardon him.

I don’t know about when in 2005, this other politician was convicted on charges of campaign-finance violations, but Hastert had a close relationship with Texas Representative, Tom DeLay, so he’s a possible VP. Maybe Hastert hurries the nomination through and uses his office to Pardon DeLay.

Other nominations:
- Representative Mike Castle of Delaware
- Representative Christopher Cox of California
 
jack_donaghy_is_the_shado

jack_donaghy_is_the_shado

Jonathan said:
Hastert would most likely get the same sentence (15 months as he was only charged with unlawfully structuring the withdrawal of $952,000 in cash, he was never convicted as a child molester) and I wouldn’t be surprised if his VP didn’t pull a Ford and pardon him.

I don’t know about when in 2005, this other politician was convicted on charges of campaign-finance violations, but Hastert had a close relationship with Texas Representative, Tom DeLay, so he’s a possible VP. Maybe Hastert hurries the nomination through and uses his office to Pardon DeLay.

Other nominations:
- Representative Mike Castle of Delaware
- Representative Christopher Cox of California
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I cannot describe how much it sickens me that this sick thing could be two heart beats away from the presidency and get a slap on the wrist in my life time.
 

gentboss

Probably pretty bad. Heck, maybe he widens the war on terror with the neocons leaning in his ear and whispering "a _real_ man would go to Damascus, don't you think, sir?"
 

Brazilianguy

Jonathan said:
Hastert would most likely get the same sentence (15 months as he was only charged with unlawfully structuring the withdrawal of $952,000 in cash, he was never convicted as a child molester) and I wouldn’t be surprised if his VP didn’t pull a Ford and pardon him.

I don’t know about when in 2005, this other politician was convicted on charges of campaign-finance violations, but Hastert had a close relationship with Texas Representative, Tom DeLay, so he’s a possible VP. Maybe Hastert hurries the nomination through and uses his office to Pardon DeLay.

Other nominations:
- Representative Mike Castle of Delaware
- Representative Christopher Cox of California
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I think the most improbable of this three to be appointed vp is DeLay, because he was being indicted on money laundering in 2005 and even with Hastert pardoning him i think that his name wouldn´t be easily approved in congress.
 

TomNolan

Banned
Kick
This is a great man, I read a lot about him. I mainly read essays MOD EDIT many, as it is very convenient. He served under two presidents, was the Speaker of the House, and he still has many merits. Read the short options, this is the best it can be!
 
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Mynock

TomNolan said:
This is a great man, I read a lot about him. I mainly read essays MOD EDIT advise many, as it is very convenient. He served under two presidents, was the Speaker of the House, and he still has many merits. Read the short options, this is the best it can be!
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Just to clarify, you are saying Hastert is a great man?
 
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gentboss

His ability to do damage would be less than if he'd become President after a worse 9/11 - but still not great, no.

OTOH, surely we would all confidently assert that Dubya (who after all had just been triumphantly re-elected) would have handled Katrina, the surge, and the great crash much better than Hastert did...
 
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