WI: Germany withdraws from Poland before the Allies declare war?

[BooNZ]

Things hold off for a few more months and then Hitler being Hitler he either goes after Poland again or just goes West. It would buy a few more months for the Allies to work out the kinks in their plans, build a few more guns and have Poland prepare properly for exile when the axe finally falls but it probably wouldn't' change much from the OTL phony war. Any peace now is temporary and the Allies know it, all they can do now is but a little time to finish rearming.

The British and French were already rearming as fast as they could and Danzig would have been an acceptable price to give them an additional 6-12 months to close the gap on Germany. This would be most noticeable in relation to airpower, since British aircraft production alone in 1940 would have seriously challenged the Luftwaffe. The Heer attempting the blitzkrieg without the OTL Luftwaffe dominance would have been interesting.

 

[Michele]

What would Poland do?

Keep arming. Insist with the British and French that their purchases of armaments be co-funded. Hopefully, since the POD seems to take place on September 3, learn something from what happened on the first two days.

Real question is what do the Soviets do assuming Molotov-Rippentrop Pact went ahead as per OTL.

Nothing in Poland. There aren't the conditions - there. OTOH, Germany has given up much more to the Soviet "sphere of influence", so they're very likely to start heavy-handed negotiations - accompanied by economic pressure and shows of force - with Finland, Estonia and Latvia. Romania might still be too hard a nut to crack, with Germany not ascendant and France still its effective ally.
As to the trade aspects of the deal, expect the Soviets to be even slower that in OTL with their first deliveries. Germany isn't fearsome, in this OTL.

Which brings us to the real "real question": how the German economy will fare now.
- There isn't a war on, so shortages of consumer goods, already begun in 1938 and rampant in 1939, are harder to accept - but they're still there;
- There isn't a war on, so how the heck can the government postpone the payment of its bonds due in 1940?
- The international trade can be supported by the Czech gold - for a while. But Germany hasn't conquered anything else, and it's still short of valuable foreign currencies, and that gold won't last for long.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

Well, it was Hitler. Hitler did start the war as he needed money. It was simply a great robbery. He had spent too much money on weapons and the economy would get into severe problems once the state is bankrupt. So making peace so early was no option (it was after the fall of Warsaw, btw.).

So if he really backed down, Germany would sooner than later default and Hitler would be deposed, one way or the other.

Having said this, there is a very similar question: What if

a) Hitler or
b) any German leader

had limited the assault on Danzig alone? Danzig was a city inhabited by Germans demanding the reunification with Germany. The reason, why it was formed an independent city, was no longer existing, as the Poles had built up Gdyna/Gdingen. Indeed the Hitler government had been the most poloniophil (sp?) government of Germany since 1919. There were serious talks to give Germany Danzig back. The situation deteriorated fast, when suddenly the Polish government changed their mind, backed up by France, in 1938. This led to a series of actions and reactions. Indeed, before the hostilities started, Germans were forced to leave their homes and Polish flak shot on German civilian planes en route to East Prussia.

So what would have happened, if the assault would have been limited on Danzig? The Poles, who were very serious to win against Germany, would have attacked Germany then. Would the French and Brits still declare war on Germany?

 

[Michele]

The situation deteriorated fast, when suddenly the Polish government changed their mind, backed up by France, in 1938.

"Suddenly" here means "understandably, given the object lesson of Czechoslovakia as to what happened when one accepted Hitler's initial demands".

Indeed, before the hostilities started, Germans were forced to leave their homes and Polish flak shot on German civilian planes en route to East Prussia.

Really? Fascinating.

 

[Michele]

ARTICLE I.

Should one of the Contracting Parties become engaged in hostilities with a European Power in consequence of aggression by the latter against that Contracting Party, the other Contracting Party will at once give the Contracting Party engaged in hostilities all the support and assistance in its power.

ARTICLE 2.

(1) The provisions of Article I will also apply in the event of any action by a European Power which clearly threatened, directly or indirectly, the independence of one of the Contracting Parties, and was of such a nature that the Party in question considered it vital to resist it with its armed forces.

(2) Should one of the Contracting Parties become engaged in hostilities with a European Power in consequence of action by that Power which threatened the independence or neutrality of another European State in such a way as to constitute a clear menace to the security of that Contracting Party, the provisions of Article I will apply, without prejudice, however, to the rights of the other European State concerned.

ARTICLE 3.

Should a European Power attempt to undermine the independence of one of the Contracting Parties by processes of economic penetration or in any other way, the Contracting Parties will support each other in resistance to such attempts. Should the European Power concerned thereupon embark on hostilities against one of the Contracting Parties, the provisions of Article I will apply.

Read Article 2 as referring to Danzig, even if it doesn't mention it by name. It's the "other European State" whose independence or neutrality might be threatened.

In Article 3 read "hostilities" following "economic penetration or in any other way" keeping in mind that stopping the flow of goods from the port of Danzig to Poland can be considered as a blockade, and a blockade is an act of hostility just as much as shooting.

 

[sendô]

It's hard to imagine Hitler backing down here.

This isn't Czechoslovakia '38. He's not making threats, he's actually started an invasion. I honestly think, after the Munich agreement and "peace in our time", and Hitlers subsequent flouting of that agreement in occupying Prague, there's no way Britain and France are going to accept Hitler occupying Danzig. He's got all the concessions he's ever going to get from the western democracies, they've now seen him for what he is.

Anyway, if he does for some reason decide to pull back, even though he knows he can crush Poland, and even though he knew that war with the west was inevitable and needed to happen sooner or later, it'll be much like OTL Phoney War, except this time he'll have a hostile Poland on his east flank also arming as fast as they can, with Britain helping.

The question will be, how long does this last? Do the democracies satisfy themselves with containing Germany with a rather expensive blockade? Or do they eventually co-ordinate a simultaneous invasion from west and east?

As to Stalin? He'll do nothing, except bully the Finns and Balts. He's ultimately a coward and wont want to risk war with any of the major powers.

 

[calvinhobbesliker]

Well, it was Hitler. Hitler did start the war as he needed money. It was simply a great robbery. He had spent too much money on weapons and the economy would get into severe problems once the state is bankrupt. So making peace so early was no option (it was after the fall of Warsaw, btw.).

So if he really backed down, Germany would sooner than later default and Hitler would be deposed, one way or the other.

Having said this, there is a very similar question: What if

a) Hitler or
b) any German leader

had limited the assault on Danzig alone? Danzig was a city inhabited by Germans demanding the reunification with Germany. The reason, why it was formed an independent city, was no longer existing, as the Poles had built up Gdyna/Gdingen. Indeed the Hitler government had been the most poloniophil (sp?) government of Germany since 1919. There were serious talks to give Germany Danzig back. The situation deteriorated fast, when suddenly the Polish government changed their mind, backed up by France, in 1938. This led to a series of actions and reactions. Indeed, before the hostilities started, Germans were forced to leave their homes and Polish flak shot on German civilian planes en route to East Prussia.

So what would have happened, if the assault would have been limited on Danzig? The Poles, who were very serious to win against Germany, would have attacked Germany then. Would the French and Brits still declare war on Germany?

Yes, the thug who wanted to genocide the Polish people was the most pro-Polish German government.

 

[calvinhobbesliker]

"Suddenly" here means "understandably, given the object lesson of Czechoslovakia as to what happened when one accepted Hitler's initial demands".



Really? Fascinating.

Oh god, someone actually believes Nazi propaganda.

 

[Historyman 14]

Poland is still screw. The opening invasion smashed the Poles like a egg.

They are wide open for the Soviets to come marching in.

 

[Michele]

Poland is still screw. The opening invasion smashed the Poles like a egg.

They are wide open for the Soviets to come marching in.

They aren't, and especially they aren't open for a Soviet offensive. But anyway, assuming you are right, the issues would be whether Stalin
a. realizes the Poles can't stop him, and
b. given how Germany was easily cowed by Poland, France and Britain acting in lockstep, doesn't decide that he's backed the wrong horse and he has better to cut his losses straight away.

 

[Historyman 14]

They aren't, and especially they aren't open for a Soviet offensive. But anyway, assuming you are right, the issues would be whether Stalin
a. realizes the Poles can't stop him, and
b. given how Germany was easily cowed by Poland, France and Britain acting in lockstep, doesn't decide that he's backed the wrong horse and he has better to cut his losses straight away.

In the event of the USSR attacking Poland, what would the West do?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Well, it was Hitler. Hitler did start the war as he needed money. It was simply a great robbery. He had spent too much money on weapons and the economy would get into severe problems once the state is bankrupt. So making peace so early was no option (it was after the fall of Warsaw, btw.).

So if he really backed down, Germany would sooner than later default and Hitler would be deposed, one way or the other.

Having said this, there is a very similar question: What if

a) Hitler or
b) any German leader

had limited the assault on Danzig alone? Danzig was a city inhabited by Germans demanding the reunification with Germany. The reason, why it was formed an independent city, was no longer existing, as the Poles had built up Gdyna/Gdingen. Indeed the Hitler government had been the most poloniophil (sp?) government of Germany since 1919. There were serious talks to give Germany Danzig back. The situation deteriorated fast, when suddenly the Polish government changed their mind, backed up by France, in 1938. This led to a series of actions and reactions. Indeed, before the hostilities started, Germans were forced to leave their homes and Polish flak shot on German civilian planes en route to East Prussia.

So what would have happened, if the assault would have been limited on Danzig? The Poles, who were very serious to win against Germany, would have attacked Germany then. Would the French and Brits still declare war on Germany?

I never heard about this. Could you give the sources?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

For Germany to withdraw from Poland Hitler have to die. Goering was less enthusiastic about war, he was rich, successful man, he wanted to enjoy his position rather than go to war and lost everything. But even with him in charge in September 1939 Third Reich went to far with re-arming to turn back. At this point either Germany goes to war or collapse.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

I never heard about this. Could you give the sources?

Gerd Schultz-Rhonhof, Der Krieg, der viele Väter hatte

Be aware, that this book is considered to be "revisionist". Indeed it is, if you want to regard revisionist in a positive way, re-visiting historical events. Also I don't agree to everything in it! However, that particular event was to be found in other sources as well, including Der Spiegel, which is by far not revisionist, one way or the other. False facts I didn't find (false conclusions I did though).

 

[fscott]

1. Hitler pulls back . Says needs Danzig but offers tax revenue to poland .. This was offered. Gb and France negociate. Hitler keeps Danzig. No war. Hitler perhaps comes to realize this war with the west could happen.

Could Hitler throw Stalin under the bus and force Russia out back to the original borders? It wouldn't fool many Leaders but with a good PR!

 

[Resurgam]

Real question is what do the Soviets do assuming Molotov-Rippentrop Pact went ahead as per OTL.

This, I think, is the interesting point of this WI. OTL the Soviets seemed to wait until most of the fighting was done before moving in for their chunk of Poland. Do they do it anyway without the OTL "excuse" of a non-existent Poland needing securing or do they bide their time?

 

[trajen777]

yes / no --- yes he could and would have to push for the Allies in a combined Great power meeting
1. Hitler: we had a great injustice done to the Germans of Danzig (he offered Poland a good deal in the real time) and are happy just to have Danzig and the corridor turned back to us, we will have passage to Gdansk to Poland assured
2. Hitler : we will reduce military spending dramatically and offer inspections as proof - for increased trade and relief from Vers treaty.
3. The "powers " demand USSR removal with a early NATO vs USSR

 

[nbcman]

Could Hitler throw Stalin under the bus and force Russia out back to the original borders? It wouldn't fool many Leaders but with a good PR!

This, I think, is the interesting point of this WI. OTL the Soviets seemed to wait until most of the fighting was done before moving in for their chunk of Poland. Do they do it anyway without the OTL "excuse" of a non-existent Poland needing securing or do they bide their time?

Being that Germany would have to withdraw from Poland by 1100 on the 3rd or the British were going to declare war, the Soviet's invasion on the 17th would probably not have occurred against the Poles who were not in duress due to the Nazi invasion. Note that the Soviets were unlikely to attack earlier as they were negotiating a cease fire of their border conflicts with the Japanese until the 15th of September.

 

[calvinhobbesliker]

he offered Poland a good deal in the real time

I assume the "good deal" was:

1. My thugs will occupy Danzig.
2. After this, I pinky promise that I will make no more territorial demands.
3. Six months later, I will invade, annex, and genocide your country.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

In the event of the USSR attacking Poland, what would the West do?

Well, they HAVE already established a clear precedent of defending Poland, making it harder for them to quickly shift gears. Britain and France likely see this as a huge betrayal and demand a Soviet withdrawal or immediate war between the powers. Hell, given the circumstances I can see them trying to use this circumstance to try to set up some kind of deal between Germany and Poland; Poland exchanging the Corridor at war's end for having the German army deployed (On the front; French and British troops will handle the backstop/logistics to sooth any Polish fears of German troops refusing to leave the country once they're stationed there) against the Soviets and full recognition of Polish expansion/claims in the east. While said deal might not work, it would be a convenient way to try to continue the policy of "peace on the Continent" as much as possible.