WI: Germany withdraws from Poland before the Allies declare war?

I know that it's incredibly implausible*, but for the sake of discussion, what would have actually happened if Germany accepted the ultimatum and withdrew from Poland before France and the U.K. had declared war?

*Do threads like this belong in ASB if the boundaries of plausibility are being pushed (e.g. Hitler undergoes a spontaneous change in personality), but there are no supernatural elements, and the post-POD still needs to be governed by reality?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I know that it's incredibly implausible*, but for the sake of discussion, what would have actually happened if Germany accepted the ultimatum and withdrew from Poland before France and the U.K. had declared war?

*Do threads like this belong in ASB if the boundaries of plausibility are being pushed (e.g. Hitler undergoes a spontaneous change in personality), but there are no supernatural elements, and the post-POD still needs to be governed by reality?
Would the Germans have also withdrawn from Danzig in this TL?
 
Would the Germans have also withdrawn from Danzig in this TL?
That's a very good question that I hadn't considered. At the risk of being lazy, let's discuss both a situation in which they obey the ultimatum completely, and one where they withdraw from Poland but attempt to hold onto Danzig.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I know that it's incredibly implausible*, but for the sake of discussion, what would have actually happened if Germany accepted the ultimatum and withdrew from Poland before France and the U.K. had declared war?

*Do threads like this belong in ASB if the boundaries of plausibility are being pushed (e.g. Hitler undergoes a spontaneous change in personality), but there are no supernatural elements, and the post-POD still needs to be governed by reality?

This is NOT an ASB thread. You posted it in the correct Forum.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That's a very good question that I hadn't considered. At the risk of being lazy, let's discuss both a situation in which they obey the ultimatum completely, and one where they withdraw from Poland but attempt to hold onto Danzig.
In such a scenario, there would probably still be war. After all, Poland could claim that German control of Danzig is a threat to its independence and thus attack Danzig in an attempt to "liberate" it--thus causing Britain and France to still enter the war on the Polish side.
 
In such a scenario, there would probably still be war. After all, Poland could claim that German control of Danzig is a threat to its independence and thus attack Danzig in an attempt to "liberate" it--thus causing Britain and France to still enter the war on the Polish side.
But in this scenario, where Poland is attacking Germany and not vice-versa, would the Brits still back Poland militarily? Or would they decide that, since Herr Hitler is behaving so reasonably, it's better to stay out of it?
 
But in this scenario, where Poland is attacking Germany and not vice-versa, would the Brits still back Poland militarily? Or would they decide that, since Herr Hitler is behaving so reasonably, it's better to stay out of it?

No, in this senario there would have been no
war as both Britain & France would happily
have siezed on such a move as an excuse to
NOT fight Germany(remember IOTL they
VERY reluctantly went to war in 1939).

But I have to add that, Hitler being Hitler,
there was no way in hell he would have accepted the ultimatum & backed down
like this.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
But in this scenario, where Poland is attacking Germany and not vice-versa, would the Brits still back Poland militarily? Or would they decide that, since Herr Hitler is behaving so reasonably, it's better to stay out of it?
Actually, technically speaking, Poland wouldn't be attacking Germany proper in this scenario; rather, it would only be attacking Danzig--a city which is vital to Poland's independence and well-being and which both Britain and France agreed should be separate from Germany in 1919.

Thus, Yes, I certainly do suspect that Britain and France would have still entered the war on Poland's side in this scenario.
 

Aphrodite

Banned
What does Stalin do? The deal was to spit Poland and he's getting shortchanged. A shortchanged Stalin is a mad Stalin and a mad Stalin usually ends up very badly.

Does he invade Poland anyway?

If he does, does Hitler still get his piece of the action or does he have to atone to Uncle Joe?

Settle for the Baltics and Finland?

Do the German generals think Hitler weak and overthrow him?
 

trajen777

Banned
1. Hitler pulls back . Says needs Danzig but offers tax revenue to poland .. This was offered. Gb and France negociate. Hitler keeps Danzig. No war. Hitler perhaps comes to realize this war with the west could happen.
 
...
Danzig--a city which is vital to Poland's independence and well-being
...
Well, only partial already at this point of time.
The purposly new build harbour of Gdynia was picking up more and more and ever faster in accumulating trade - esp. for Poland - from Danzig.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, only partial already at this point of time.
The purposly new build harbour of Gdynia was picking up more and more and ever faster in accumulating trade - esp. for Poland - from Danzig.
True, but Danzig was still at the mouth of the Vistula--a river which I think was very crucial to Poland in terms of trade and commerce.
 
What does Stalin do? The deal was to spit Poland and he's getting shortchanged. A shortchanged Stalin is a mad Stalin and a mad Stalin usually ends up very badly.

Does he invade Poland anyway?

If he does, does Hitler still get his piece of the action or does he have to atone to Uncle Joe?

Settle for the Baltics and Finland?

Do the German generals think Hitler weak and overthrow him?
About the last :
IMO highly unlikely.
In 1939 there was no pro-war attitude in the german public as i.e. 1914 - much to the frustration of Hitler.

Avoiding another war, like 1938 with the Munich agreement, would raise Hitler even faster into god-like realms of admiration in the german public at this point.The generals knew that too.


About the rest : very good and interesting questions :)
 
True, but Danzig was still at the mouth of the Vistula--a river which I think was very crucial to Poland in terms of trade and commerce.
Yep, true, Danzig was an extremly important item for Germany as well as Poland - politically.

Important enough for Poland to risk open-eyed a war without support by Britain and France ? ... against Germany AND Stalin ?
 
1. Hitler pulls back . Says needs Danzig but offers tax revenue to poland .. This was offered. Gb and France negociate. Hitler keeps Danzig. No war. Hitler perhaps comes to realize this war with the west could happen.

True, but Danzig was still at the mouth of the Vistula--a river which I think was very crucial to Poland in terms of trade and commerce.

Britain can entirely support Poland militarily, if Poland chooses to keep making war (after Germany initiated hostilities) for the purpose of preventing Germany from holding on to Danzig only. Articles 2 and 3 of the British-Polish treaty were carefulyl worded to provide for such an occurrence, even though without mentioning the Free City.

Whether Britain would have wanted to do so, that's another kettle of fish. Probably not.
 
So let's assume Germany refuses to withdraw from Danzig, and the Allies use this as an excuse to avoid war (yet again). That would mean that, since the Munich Treaty, in which Germany explicitly relinquished all further territorial claims in Europe, Hitler has proceeded to...

  1. Invade and occupy the rump Czech state
  2. Bully Lithuania into ceding the Memelland
  3. Invade Poland and occupy Danzig
What could happen next? It seems like the Allies just lost most (if not all) of their credibility, to say nothing of Germany's reputation. What would Poland do?
 
Things hold off for a few more months and then Hitler being Hitler he either goes after Poland again or just goes West. It would buy a few more months for the Allies to work out the kinks in their plans, build a few more guns and have Poland prepare properly for exile when the axe finally falls but it probably wouldn't' change much from the OTL phony war. Any peace now is temporary and the Allies know it, all they can do now is but a little time to finish rearming.
 
Things hold off for a few more months and then Hitler being Hitler he either goes after Poland again or just goes West. It would buy a few more months for the Allies to work out the kinks in their plans, build a few more guns and have Poland prepare properly for exile when the axe finally falls but it probably wouldn't' change much from the OTL phony war. Any peace now is temporary and the Allies know it, all they can do now is but a little time to finish rearming.


Perhaps though this would have caused such a revulsion against Chamberlin that his
government would have fallen, paving the
way for Churchill to come in sooner than he
did IOTL(I'm basing this JamesHunter on
your statement above that in a few more
months after September 1939 Hitler
would've moved again & that by "few" you
mean 3-4. That would put Churchill's
becoming PM @ January 1940 @The latest
in this ATL, whereas IOTL this happened in
May 1940).
 
Perhaps though this would have caused such a revulsion against Chamberlin that his
government would have fallen, paving the
way for Churchill to come in sooner than he
did IOTL(I'm basing this JamesHunter on
your statement above that in a few more
months after September 1939 Hitler
would've moved again & that by "few" you
mean 3-4. That would put Churchill's
becoming PM @ January 1940 @The latest
in this ATL, whereas IOTL this happened in
May 1940).

Chamberlain may be forced to resign immediately if he lets Danzig fall. He said he felt betrayed when the Nazi thugs took Prague, and yet he kissed Hitler's posterior again.
 
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