What if the Reinsurance Treaty between Germany and Russia was renewed in 1890? The Reinsurance Treaty was a secret agreement in which both powers promised to remain neutral if the other was attacked by a third party. In The War That Ended Peace, the expiration of the treaty is described as a "costly mistake" and it is said that the new German Chancellor Leo van Caprivi had little background in foreign affairs and allowed himself to be talked out of renewal by the Foreign Office. "The result was to encourage the Russians to look elsewhere, in particular to France, with whom Russia signed a secret military agreement in 1894." It's suggested that the treaty being renewed would have prevented Russia's alliance with France and later the emergence of the Triple Entente to oppose Germany. Would that have been the case? If so, would Germany have ultimately formed a closer alliance with Russia(which was entirely possible and maybe even a better fit for Russia than liberal France and Britain)? Russia may have been a preferable ally than Austria-Hungary, as that alliance was seen as a last resort and looked upon warily due to the instability of Austria-Hungary. Or at the very least, Germany could have been an arbiter to resolve the disputes between Russia and Austria-Hungary. If the treaty was renewed, would it have prevented or altered the course of World War I? Or would renewal have had little effect? What are your thoughts?