WI - German V-1 ready in 1940?

hipper

Banned
BlondieBC said:
While it is probably the best strategy, I have a feeling that at some point Goering will still go after fighter command in SouthEast UK, even if the V-1's are very successful, and the RAF is taking heavy fighter losses over France. Why wouldn't Goering attack an enemy that is even weaker appearing than OTL?
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I doubt Downing would operate over France he refused to in OTL v1 attacks are minor compared to the OTL blitz

Goring does not go after fighter command because his fighter arm is wasting away faster than fighter command.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
hipper said:
I doubt Dowdig would operate over France he refused to in OTL v1 attacks are minor compared to the OTL blitz

Goring does not go after fighter command because his fighter arm is wasting away faster than fighter command.
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So do you think the British would stick to night bombing of the V-1 sites or just ignore them?
 

hipper

Banned
BlondieBC said:
So do you think the British would stick to night bombing of the V-1 sites or just ignore them?
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They ignored the Bomber bases that were doing far worse damage in 1940 than the V1's did in 1944 so yes I think they would ignore them,
Attempts at night bombing might expose the RAF's navigation defects prior to 1942

The Navy might achieve good results in night attacks with swordfish in 1940
 

Carl Schwamberger

BlondieBC said:
So do you think the British would stick to night bombing of the V-1 sites or just ignore them?
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In 1940 RAF tried attacking the German bomber bases in France. The results were disappointing & had unacceptable losses. I've not done much reading on these, but all may have been day attacks. I dont remember any mention of escorts for the bombers.

Attacking the V1 launchers in early 1944 had the desired results, the German construction program could not keep up & the building of permanent launch facilities was abandoned & cheap quick construction or temporary launchers were resorted to. My father a ordnance officer in the US 9th AF was involved in the winter of 1944. They were not told what the targets were, but given info on their construction & advice on the bombs to use. The air crew remarked on how heavily camoflaged the targets were. A few of the AAR I read noted the aim points were either construction sites, or farm buildings and "orchards". At some point in March the 9th AF slacked off on these target & went back to the transportation attacks as part of Op Overlord.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
hipper said:
They ignored the Bomber bases that were doing far worse damage in 1940 than the V1's did in 1944 so yes I think they would ignore them,
Attempts at night bombing might expose the RAF's navigation defects prior to 1942

The Navy might achieve good results in night attacks with swordfish in 1940
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I can see your scenario, and I can also see more of the Wiking scenario where Northern France is a major air battle. On any big changes like the POD proposed here, we rapidly run into decisions where a choice has to be made, and no choice has more than a 1 in 3 chance of happening. In this case, I see several valid choices that have far different paths.

  • UK goes hard after V-1 sites. Major air battles over Northern France in both day and night.
  • UK targets something else believed to be critical to the V-1 attacks. Railroads, fuel supplies, V-1 factories or the like.
  • UK goes for some punitive countermeasure. I would not rule out considering the use of chemical or biological weapons in retaliation. Especially if you have a big event such as a V-1 making a direct hit on a shelter with kids. Or a V-1 kills the royal family. Or the V-1 hits a location with 10-20 MP's present.
  • UK does not go after the sites and Goering decides to do OTL BoB in addition to V-1's.
  • A Phony Air War develops where neither side is willing to fight on terrain favorable to the other side. i.e. Both sides keep most of their fighters on their side of the channel.
  • I can also see the UK trying something with a big naval portion. The UK has a strong naval tradition, and it changes in fundamental ways the way one approaches military issues. I can also see attempts to use the swordfish with night attacks. Possibly in combination with either vary major raids involving marines.

And this is why I believe that discussing actions in 1942, much less 1943 can't be done with any accuracy. We simply don't know what the map would look like, and each of us has strong opinions about the earlier choices made, so we are not really discussing the same ATL.
 

Deleted member 1487

BlondieBC said:
  • UK goes for some punitive countermeasure. I would not rule out considering the use of chemical or biological weapons in retaliation. Especially if you have a big event such as a V-1 making a direct hit on a shelter with kids. Or a V-1 kills the royal family. Or the V-1 hits a location with 10-20 MP's present.
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Not going to happen. The Germans had too much of an ability to retaliate, so the Allies would not initiate; despite the OTL Blitz and post-Blitz raids that killed over 60k British civilians and wounded over 100k, including many women and children, the Brits never resorted to such IOTL. Even in 1944 with the V-1 attacks the Brits did not do it either despite having the means and no German ability to retaliate.

What is most likely based on OTL is the British Circus and Rhubarb raids of OTL 1941-42 where they 'leaned in' to France to bomb a variety of targets with heavy fighter escorts. In 1940 that is not happening, the Brits will triage and go after the barges in ports to make sure there is not an invasion and fight the defensive air battle. They will have to let the V-1s through and either quit or suck it up. Post-BoB then they know they have breathing room before an invasion threat is a problem again in Summer 1941, so they can go on the offensive once flying weather improves in early 1941 (November-December 1940 were bad flying months and reduced German sorties during the Blitz reflect that). Early 1941 offensive then sees bombers with heavy escort raiding launch sites in a reverse BoB, which as per OTL when the RAF tried it, they lose much worse than the Luftwaffe did (IOTL the Brits suffered 4:1 losses in 1941-42 in their raids). Defensively too the Brits probably have special souped up unarmored fighters to attack the V-1s as best they can as they invest heavily in air defense. Both sides probably invest more in fighters to fight the air battles over France in 1941-43, while both sides probably push in a lot of AAA to defend their vitals.

The USAAF will probably take a big role in 1942 if there is no Torch, as that frees up a lot of air power that went to the Mediterranean IOTL for use in Britain defensively and offensively. The 8th air force gets a lot bigger at lot sooner. They would need to create the pre-conditions for an invasion too, which means seizing air superiority over Northern France and suppressing the V-1s. But this isn't 1944, so even with reinforcements they aren't strong enough to do that consistently even in 1943 and the Luftwaffe will likely invest more heavily in fighters given the greater intensity in fighting over France in 1941-43. Not sure if the Allies will go for Germany as hard ITTL to try and pull off German fighter strength, but it would seem a good idea even if there is less bombing of France. Not sure what the impact is on German bomber strength or strength in the East for the Luftwaffe with bigger air battles in the West in 1941-43. Certainly the Mediterranean is a major backwater ITTL; given how badly attrition in that theater wore down the Luftwaffe, which was heavily aided by poor Axis logistics on the periphery of their empire (based on 'Strategy for Defeat', which Murray says was one of their most fatal mistakes, fighting in Africa far beyond their ability to supply it), being able to fight in France where bases and logistics were 2nd only to Germany itself, that makes attritting the Lufwaffe a lot bloodier and harder work than IOTL without an Operation Torch and Tunisian/Sicilian/Italian Campaign.
 
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hipper

Banned
wiking said:
Not going to happen. The Germans had too much of an ability to retaliate, so the Allies would not initiate; despite the OTL Blitz and post-Blitz raids that killed over 60k British civilians and wounded over 100k, including many women and children, the Brits never resorted to such IOTL. Even in 1944 with the V-1 attacks the Brits did not do it either despite having the means and no German ability to retaliate.

What is most likely based on OTL is the British Circus and Rhubarb raids of OTL 1941-42 where they 'leaned in' to France to bomb a variety of targets with heavy fighter escorts. In 1940 that is not happening, the Brits will triage and go after the barges in ports to make sure there is not an invasion and fight the defensive air battle. They will have to let the V-1s through and either quit or suck it up. Post-BoB then they know they have breathing room before an invasion threat is a problem again in Summer 1941, so they can go on the offensive once flying weather improves in early 1941 (November-December 1940 were bad flying months and reduced German sorties during the Blitz reflect that). Early 1941 offensive then sees bombers with heavy escort raiding launch sites in a reverse BoB, which as per OTL when the RAF tried it, they lose much worse than the Luftwaffe did (IOTL the Brits suffered 4:1 losses in 1941-42 in their raids). Defensively too the Brits probably have special souped up unarmored fighters to attack the V-1s as best they can as they invest heavily in air defense. Both sides probably invest more in fighters to fight the air battles over France in 1941-43, while both sides probably push in a lot of AAA to defend their vitals.

The USAAF will probably take a big role in 1942 if there is no Torch, as that frees up a lot of air power that went to the Mediterranean IOTL for use in Britain defensively and offensively. The 8th air force gets a lot bigger at lot sooner. They would need to create the pre-conditions for an invasion too, which means seizing air superiority over Northern France and suppressing the V-1s. But this isn't 1944, so even with reinforcements they aren't strong enough to do that consistently even in 1943 and the Luftwaffe will likely invest more heavily in fighters given the greater intensity in fighting over France in 1941-43. Not sure if the Allies will go for Germany as hard ITTL to try and pull off German fighter strength, but it would seem a good idea even if there is less bombing of France. Not sure what the impact is on German bomber strength or strength in the East for the Luftwaffe with bigger air battles in the West in 1941-43. Certainly the Mediterranean is a major backwater ITTL; given how badly attrition in that theater wore down the Luftwaffe, which was heavily aided by poor Axis logistics on the periphery of their empire (based on 'Strategy for Defeat', which Murray says was one of their the most fatal mistakes, fighting in Africa far beyond their ability to supply it), being able to fight in France where bases and logistics were 2nd only to Germany itself, that makes attritting the Lufwaffe a lot bloodier and harder work than IOTL without an Operation Torch and Tunisian/Sicilian/Italian Campaign.
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Agree that you would see a lot of RAF iincursions into Northern France in 1941 once Downing was out of the way.
I don't see The driver for no Torch operation. the USAAF did not have a competitive land based fighter till 1943 so I don't see to much involvement by the them I do see an even larger fighter command and probably at least the Historical Bomber Command war effort some of which will be diverted onto anti ski Jump sights

In Short the V1 is an advantage for Germany in ww2 but not a descisive one.
 

Deleted member 1487

hipper said:
Agree that you would see a lot of RAF iincursions into Northern France in 1941 once Downing was out of the way.
I don't see The driver for no Torch operation. the USAAF did not have a competitive land based fighter till 1943 so I don't see to much involvement by the them I do see an even larger fighter command and probably at least the Historical Bomber Command war effort some of which will be diverted onto anti ski Jump sights

In Short the V1 is an advantage for Germany in ww2 but not a descisive one.
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The driver is stopping the V-1 launches. Full stop. The only way to shut them down is to overrun the launch sites. The air power necessary to shut down the launches through constant bombardment doesn't exist until late 1943 really, perhaps earlier if you focus on France instead of Germany. The USAAF could do what it did in North Africa in France in 1942-43: use numbers to make up for lack of fighter quality. They could also just use the P-39 themselves. Plus the P-47 did show up in Britain in late 1942 with the USAAF. The early P-51s were available too by 1942. It was fine at lower altitudes where they would need to bomb V-1 sites at.

What do you mean by decisive advantage? If it is enough of a distract for the Wallies that they leave German industry and cities mostly alone and it allows the Germans to concentrate FLAK and fighters in France and the Lowlands and forces the Allies to fight there, then compared to the situation IOTL it is a decisive advantage. Moreover it also prevents spending on the V-2 and V-3 plus post-1941 air raids on Britain, which is all a massive benefit for Germany's war effort relative to OTL. And if it means no Torch plus the Allies to launch a premature invasion of France and no Kursk offensive then that all is a massive advantage for Germany relative to OTL (and much worse for the Allies and victims of the Nazis).
 

ric350

Ok, let's take this in a slightly different direction.

First, disregard all post 1940 strategy and tactics used by both sides. Second, assume that the Germans have the V-1 ready to go (meaning deployed in numbers), for the invasion of France, but that the battle ends before they can be used (accuracy is too bad for Dunkirk). In addition, in a very un-German like manner, the V-1 is built with a "good enough" level of quality. They also have platforms equivalent to the Bruckenleger (bridge layer), to be used as mobile launchers.

I think all of these conditions are reasonable, or at least plausible.

Then attacks on channel shipping begins similar to OTL. However, at the same time round-the-clock V-1 attacks begin, say 25-30 launches a day.

So the British air defense has little to gauge "normal" inbound radar contacts at this point, at least nothing at the scale of BoB. All they know is bombs are landing in populations centers, with little warning. They may be able to recover some V-1s that fail to detonate, and/or visual reports from the ground or air.

The Germans spend this time building the Luftwaffe forces in northern France, in fact they make sure the Britsh can "see" the size and deployment of these forces. Remember at this point, the Luftwaffe was seen to be a juggernaut (the flaws in this view were not yet apparent).

Then the Germans make diplomatic overtures to Britain (diplomatically and publicly) to cease-fire, OR ELSE!

So what is the reaction of the British government? How would this reaction change if something of national significance is hit by the V-1s (i.e. Parliament, royal residence, Big Ben;))?

Ric350
 

hipper

Banned
basically the damage done by V1's would be suffered, much as the various German night bombing campaigns were

Cheers Hipper
 
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Deleted member 1487

hipper said:
the Palace of Westminster was wrecked by German bombs in 1940. Buckingham palace was also damaged in 1940. V1's were not exactly stealth weapons so I doubt there would be any mystery where the bombs were coming from.

Churchill was not persuaded to negotiate with the Germans in the face of considerably greater damage than the OTL V1 bombing so I don't think he would be moved by threats. historically Hitler's "appeal to reason" was rejected by the BBC without consulting the Goverment

The most likely result of early V1 deployment is the OTL bombing campaign with some greater concentration on northern France. The launch sites were within OBOE range of the Uk in late 1941.

It basically the damage done by V1's would be suffered much as the various German night bombing campigns were

Cheers Hipper
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OBOE was only first used in December 1941. Perhaps due to need to operate a night they would push it earlier to avoid German fighters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oboe_(navigation)
Since it operated like the German systems used in 1940-41 they could use jamming like the Brits did. ECM was known to both sides and once already used by one was duplicable by the other because the signal could be heard and they knew how their own system worked and what it took the Brits to render it unworkable. So it might be useless soon after introduced.
 

Deleted member 1487

hipper said:
Oboe used a 10cm wavelength, absent cavity magnetrons the Germans can't Jam OBE.

Cheers Hipper
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They did IOTL. It's a radio signal they need to give out, not a focused radar system, which makes it doable. The problem the Germans had with jamming OBOE is the Brits changed the wavelength it operated at so they couldn't figure out why their jamming stopped working, plus changed the specifics of the receiver system and the Germans didn't last long enough to figure that out.
 

Carl Schwamberger

ric350 said:
...
So the British air defense has little to gauge "normal" inbound radar contacts at this point, at least nothing at the scale of BoB.

...
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Actually they were fairly good at reading the information on the radar by this point. Lots of tracking exercises. The pop literature that most folks seem to depend on for information has little on the visual tracking system. that was not dismantled when the Chain Home & Chain Low systems were set up. The spotters on the Channel picket boats, the coast, and inland were linked into the fighter command the same as the Chain Home and Low radar stations. There were also air pickets sent out to investigate radar contacts of interest.

ric350 said:
... They may be able to recover some V-1s that fail to detonate, and/or visual reports from the ground or air. ...
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OTL the Brits obtained examples of the V1 in 1942 from the Swedes. Its difficult to think they wont have some useful informations on this weapon by 1939. The French did have a spy operation in Germany & were able to obtain technical information on a variety of German systems. In the mid 1930s a variety of documents on the Enigma encryption system were passed to the French. It that closely guarded secret could get out then odds are the V1 will not be a mystery to the Brits.

ric350 said:
...have the V-1 ready to go (meaning deployed in numbers), for the invasion of France, but that the battle ends before they can be used ...
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You are saying this weapon would not be set up and ready for use when the German attack is launched 10 May 1940? Thats hard to understand.
 

Carl Schwamberger

There are a lot of comments applying the inaccuracy of the V1 as we know it to this ATL. There are a lot of good arguments for a air launched version to be common. The difference in accuracy between a V1 launched at a target 200+ km away vs launched from 25 or 50 km may be large. There is also the matter of the German air force leaders of the 1930s being enamored with precision attack. They are not going to be satisfied with a area weapon & by 1940 there is likely progress in making this weapon more accurate. Speculating on the use of the V1 as built in 1944 is ok, but one has to keep in mind the same concept started in 1936 or whatever, is going to not be identical. Its going to reflect the doctrines and perceptions of the late 1930s German leaders.
 
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ric350

I guess I'm viewing the V-1 in this time frame still as a concept of a "terror weapon", which I still think would have made hitler drool with delight in 1940. Only in this time line he would envision them raining down on Paris, once the mobile launchers got within range. Only the quick surrender spoiled it all. So now he directs them against London/southern England with that same intent. Heck, the British could have the V-1 blueprints, but that's not going to do them much good.

The propaganda would be, "we can hit you at will, and good luck finding our launchers, (and secretly hoping the RAF attempts just that), and if you don't come to the table, we will unleash the Luftwaffe". Heck they could probably rig some V-1s to scatter propaganda leaflets.

So the populace, with the BEF defeat in France, and their near destruction at Dunkirk, a recent memory, now find bombs falling on them with no defense. At least during OTL BoB and the Blitz, the British people could see the Germans getting badly bloodied for every bomb that fell. Now, that moral boost doesn't exist.

Again, at this point the weaknesses in the Luftwaffe aircraft and tactics wasn't apparent, so all those planes marshaling across the channel would appear to be a very grave threat. Only in this TL London is already under attack and the British military appears powerless to stop it. Would public, and political, opinion worry that the destruction and loss of life would only get much worse, if the Luftwaffe did show up?

Ric350
 
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