marathag
Banned
WI - German V-1 ready in 1940?
- Thread starter ric350
- Start date
Deleted member 1487
Probably as bad as it was initially in 1944 from land and air launched until they figure out the range, fix defects, and properly spot for the missiles (not an option IOTL 1944-45). By 1941 I'd imagine it would at least be the OTL 7 mile CEP of 1945. It would get better after that, especially once they get the Porsche low cost jet engine they were working on ready:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_109-005
BlondieBC
Banned
Looking at this thread, the technical part is excellent. When we get to the impacts, i think the thread generally makes way too many assumptions for 1943-45. Any ATL written with these premises will be widely divergent with at least 4 layers of major butterflies before we get to summer of 1943. So lets go back to the beginning. I am accepting we get to about the summer of 1940, and the V-1 is available without world changing butterflies.
- France has just fallen. The Luftwaffe fighters have been run hard and put away wet. They are largely on a maintenance stand down or OTL pause before the BoB. The V-1 sites are rapidly being setup and begin to attack London. The RAF responds strongly. Goering is forces to bring squadrons out of the maintenance/training stand down faster than he likes. The Germans will be having success on damaging London and winning the fighter battle over France. The Germans will generally recover their shot down pilots, the UK's will go into prison camp.
- The RAF is forced to base lots of short range fighters in very southern England. Right where OTL Goering wanted them IOTL. At some point, the Germans will go after these bases with attacks similar to OTL BoB, but much more focused.
- From our perspective, the UK is rapidly stripping resource from all other theaters. ITTL, the are simply deciding not to reinforce Africa and Asia. Pressure will build to find non-military solution with Japan such as deciding on clear Spheres of Influence. I don't think we can assume a Pacific version of the war, and if we have one, it will not look like OTL battle. Probably start in a different month for example. Just the simple issues. If the UK has 75% fewer planes in the Pacific, will the UK allow/encourage oil exports to Japan in exchange for peace. If the UK has a lot fewer military assets in the Pacific, will the USA feel the need to move assets to the Pacific to compensate. So many butterflies here.
- IMO, the UK will likely either make a peace/trade offer to German or Japan. The UK needs fewer enemies.
- I don't think we can assume that German invades Russia, or much less it goes like OTL. As the winter of 40/41 sets in, we should think of German morale and beliefs too. The Germans are winning the air war with the UK. If the UK has fewer resources in the Med basin, the Axis are likely doing better there. It would be tempting to try to finish off the UK instead of going into Russia.
- By the time we get to mid 1942, this WW2 does not look like OTL WW2.
BlondieBC
Banned
At 7 miles, aren't the Germans pretty much stuck at London as the only viable land based target? For example, if shot at Portsmouth harbor and missing by 7 miles, one would be landing near to Hamble-le-Rice or roughly half way between Portsmouth and Southampton. It looks like you would need closer to 1 or 2 mile CEP to even think of widescale bombardment of many secondary cities.
The Luftwaffe cannot mimic this behavior, at low altitude for reasons of deception?
Even if there is no deception, the British are unlikely to knowingly stand down when the V1s launch.
hipper
Banned
Hmm in OTL the U.K. Did not send a spitfire fighter outside the UK till march 1942 I don't think that would change in a V1 in 1940 scenario
Either way it's not going to affect the med or Far East until after 1942.
2) 11 group was based in the south east of England. Kesselring's focused attacks on them were a loosing proposition. continuing with that strategy does not gain them much.
The best Strategy for Germany in the BOB is to use the 110 as a fast bomber escorted by 109's
Use the slower bombers to hit ports at night. With occasional terror raids on London. Again at night.
Use the V1's as nusance weapons against London during the day.
Cheers Hipper.
BlondieBC
Banned
While it is probably the best strategy, I have a feeling that at some point Goering will still go after fighter command in SouthEast UK, even if the V-1's are very successful, and the RAF is taking heavy fighter losses over France. Why wouldn't Goering attack an enemy that is even weaker appearing than OTL?
Did I miss the post where the factory capacity for the V1 was discussed, materials available, & trade offs in production for other aircraft types?
Deleted member 1487
The problem there is that the US leveraged LL to get the Brits to join the embargo of Japan, along with the host of governments in exile, specifically the Dutch.
Deleted member 1487
Yes, they were basically made in the VW factory IOTL (before evacuating to Mittelwerke after bombing of VW); the VW plant was unutilized effectively before 1942, so the capacity is there. The materials are just sheet metal and plywood, which were not in shortage and the guidance system made by Askania. It shouldn't impact aircraft production at all as it did not use aluminum or skilled industrial labor to make. IOTL it was mostly made by slave labor.
Probably not with a fairly crude rocket like the V1; I doubt it could fly high and slow enough to be mistaken for a prop bomber without major design changes.
During the BoB the Brits found German aircraft radio transmissions a reliable supplement to radar warning. Poor radio discipline, & a lack of understanding of what the Brits were monitoring. When the German attack groups formed up over France they often let fly a lot of low powered transmissions between aircraft as group commanders formed up their charges. Brit signal intel monitored this radio traffic & learned something of the attack groups while they were still taking off and getting into formation. A batch of V1 are going to lack that radio traffic, and they wont appear as compact groups on the radar.
The Brits also kept visual observers on picket boats in the Channel, along the coast, and inland. One of their jobs was to identify aircraft types.
BlondieBC
Banned
And that is a fascinating set of pressures. The resource the UK needs to extend the war are being provide by the USA who is slowly forcing the UK into a more hostile position with Japan. All with an out that a peace treaty, more a cease fire, allows the UK to rebuild.
Deleted member 1487
A peace treaty with Hitler that would leave him in control over the continent and trade with it. Britain then becomes and economic satellite of Germany. The US becomes hostile to Britain for dropping out too, which means they are even more at the mercy of Germany as their empire falls apart and US markets aren't as accessible.