WI Gerald Ford does not pardon Richard Nixon

dsp19 · Mar 31, 2023

Starting this thread because of the Trump indictment:

WI President Ford does not pardon President Nixon and prosecution of Nixon for Watergate occurs. What butterflies result from this scenario?

Three off the top of my head:

1. Nixon is convicted but the reluctance of sending a President to prison means he only serves house arrest.
2. Ford wins against Carter in 1976 and gets a term of his own. He almost won anyway IRL with the Nixon pardon, a bad economy and the fall of S. Vietnam arrayed against him.
3. That late 1970s era/term is a poisoned chalice for any President and a Democrat wins in 1980

raharris1973 · Mar 31, 2023

dsp19 said:
Starting this thread because of the Trump indictment:

WI President Ford does not pardon President Nixon and prosecution of Nixon for Watergate occurs. What butterflies result from this scenario?

Three off the top of my head:

1. Nixon is convicted but the reluctance of sending a President to prison means he only serves house arrest.
2. Ford wins against Carter in 1976 and gets a term of his own. He almost won anyway IRL with the Nixon pardon, a bad economy and the fall of S. Vietnam arrayed against him.
3. That late 1970s era/term is a poisoned chalice for any President and a Democrat wins in 1980

4. Ford loses the general as many Republicans see him as caving to pressure and their morale is simply depressed with Nixon convicted, sentenced and either house arrested and jailed, Ford faces an even stronger primary challenge than OTL (or loses) leaving the GOP more depressed and damaged for the '76 general than OTL, and the Dems pick, probably still Carter, wins. [moral of the story - a non-pardon isn't necessarily a Ford-saver - not a slam-dunk]

Galba Otho Vitelius · Mar 31, 2023

What exactly would Nixon be charged with?

And what if Nixon goes on trial and is found not guilty?

Alias_The_J · Mar 31, 2023

On mobile so I can’t add links easily, but if you search using this website, you’ll find several similar threads.

Colonel Zoidberg · Mar 31, 2023

dsp19 said:
Starting this thread because of the Trump indictment:

WI President Ford does not pardon President Nixon and prosecution of Nixon for Watergate occurs. What butterflies result from this scenario?

Three off the top of my head:

1. Nixon is convicted but the reluctance of sending a President to prison means he only serves house arrest.
2. Ford wins against Carter in 1976 and gets a term of his own. He almost won anyway IRL with the Nixon pardon, a bad economy and the fall of S. Vietnam arrayed against him.
3. That late 1970s era/term is a poisoned chalice for any President and a Democrat wins in 1980

That means no Reagan in the White House - ever. If Ted Kennedy can shake Chappaquiddick, he looks like a favorite in 1980. I feel like he would be the big personality America would have wanted in the 80s.

M79 · Mar 31, 2023

Colonel Zoidberg said:
That means no Reagan in the White House - ever. If Ted Kennedy can shake Chappaquiddick, he looks like a favorite in 1980. I feel like he would be the big personality America would have wanted in the 80s.

Why does Ford failing to pardon Nixon mean no Reagan in the White House...ever...?

Colonel Zoidberg · Mar 31, 2023

M79 said:
Why does Ford failing to pardon Nixon mean no Reagan in the White House...ever...?

Ford wins 1976. A Democrat wins 1980 because the incumbent party in 1980 was, in all likelihood, completely fucked. By 1984, Reagan would be 73, and no amount of polish will convince GOP brass - who, in all likelihood, watched him get his ass handed to him in 1980 - that he’s up for it.

WorthyofthePower · Apr 1, 2023

let this not be a utopita?

jmc247 · Apr 1, 2023

Galba Otho Vitelius said:
What exactly would Nixon be charged with?

And what if Nixon goes on trial and is found not guilty?

That obviously matters. The most likely charge is obstruction of justice for how he wielded Presidental power in the time after and perhaps even before Watergate. The problem is that is at its core a Constitutional question between the branches of government. It would go up to the Supreme Court certainly.

Ford was already a politically neutered President. An ongoing trial of Nixon would just make it worse by many factors. Ford would be invisible, and Nixon would be omnipresent in the public consciousness.

CaptainCalvert · Apr 1, 2023

It's a tough one. You need either someone with enough principles who won't let someone escape justice simply because they used to be president, or someone who has or develops a personal dislike of Nixon and wants to grind him down. I can't see Ford fitting either of these conditions.
Politics being the way it is, I think the VP with a personal grudge is more credible - a VP candidate who dislikes Nixon (eg narrowly beaten in the selection process by what looks like underhand means, or never did get along) but is put forward to avoid losing votes among people who don't much like Nixon. Is there a credible contender?

Amadeus · Apr 1, 2023

Although Nixon would likely be convicted, the trial would probably take a year at least. It would very much dominate the national headlines, which is a reason why Ford pardoned Nixon.

That being said, Ford would maintain most of the initial popularity he had at the start of his term and he would probably be elected in 1976.

Since Nixon is a former President, and there would be a huge security risk in putting him in jail, he probably serves his sentence under house arrest somewhere in a remote location where no one can get to him.

West · Apr 1, 2023

Ford likely loses the election and then you get Carter who likey is just as bad as otl. Regan will have the advantage of Nixon being a settled issue and likey does slightly better then otl. Iran Contra won't touch him like otl.

When Clinton gets his scandal and it doesn't touch him there will be a lot more resentment on the right because they got rid of Nixon.

So take todays politics and increase the anger by 5 percent.

Nelson Mikeson · Apr 4, 2023

Colonel Zoidberg said:
That means no Reagan in the White House - ever. If Ted Kennedy can shake Chappaquiddick, he looks like a favorite in 1980. I feel like he would be the big personality America would have wanted in the 80s.

Ted Kennedy is too overated on this forum. Mondale, Glenn, Bentsen, Cuomo or even Carter, if say Jackson takes the nomination in 1976, could defeat Kennedy in 1980 based on his personal issues. Apart from Chappaquiddick he was more horny than even his brother and his wife actually divorced him in 1983 OTL, which would hurt his re-election campaign in 1984. Even if he manages to win re-election in 1984 due to a good economy and managing to implement universal healthcare(he may face the same private pressures Clinton did in 1994, but may be able to overcome them due to better connections in the Senate), I have a feeling he would face a Lewinsky-style sexual scandal and end up with an LBJ-style mixed-up reputation.