WI George W. Bush pushed for Immigration Reform in early 2005?

[THE OBSERVER]

Instead of trying to force Social Security Reform at the beginning of his second term, what if George W. Bush decides to use his "earned capital" on Immigration Reform instead? Does he put his support behind the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act, working with Ted Kennedy and John McCain to get that bill enacted? The reactions to this bill would have an effect on the 2006 Midterm Elections, either slightly minimizing Republican losses or increasing Democratic gains due to backlash from certain provisions in the bill (Guest Worker Program).

Long term, more Hispanic voters may flock to the Republican party, while certain "nativist" and "xenophobic" elements in the GOP will end up on the sidelines. One interesting thing to note. If Bush is attempting woo Latinos, he may consider Sonia Sotomayor or Emilio M. Garza to fill one of the vacancies on the Supreme Court that year.

 

[Alon]

Sotomayor is pro-choice; no way does he nominate her. If he wants a Hispanic justice, there's Miguel Estrada.

The other thing is, Bush did try to push immigration reform. It didn't work, because millions of Hispanics protested the high fines required in the path to citizenship.

 

[THE OBSERVER]

Sotomayor is pro-choice; no way does he nominate her. If he wants a Hispanic justice, there's Miguel Estrada.

The other thing is, Bush did try to push immigration reform. It didn't work, because millions of Hispanics protested the high fines required in the path to citizenship.

He pushed Social Security reform much harder and it backfired.

 

[Minty_Fresh]

Bush's approval ratings remained decent until going for Social Security Reform, as that made seniors, who went big for him in '04 (mostly because of Medicare Part D) unhappy. Seniors voted for Gore in 2000, but generation shifts (more Boomers) and Medicare Part D made them one of his biggest support groups. But what tanked his approval ratings was not Iraq, as the electorate seemed to not really care half as much as the media did, but rather when he alienated the Conservative base by going after immigration reform. He went from around 50 after reelection, to around 40 after SS reform and Katrina, to about 30 after immigration reform efforts. Lehmann Bros got him to 22, but his lame duck conduct was dignified and admirable, and combined with the Surge actually getting some results, got him back up to around 35 when he left office.

2006, much like 2014 for the Democrats, was just a bad year for the Republicans in terms of which states were up for grabs. Bush was able to rally the base despite all the 2006 GOP inter party scandals, but not enough for it to count. It was indeed a thumpin'.

How to reverse this? Not going after Social Security and handling Katrina better. Iraq did not affect 2006. The image that the Bush Administration was internally incompetent in times of crisis like Katrina, and the alienation of one of his biggest emerging support groups, was what screwed the GOP in 2006.

Hispanic voters generally liked Bush a lot more than his party, and generally disliked the GOP. This was not going to change the midterms if immigration reform got passed.

 

[jmc247]

Bush's approval ratings remained decent until going for Social Security Reform, as that made seniors, who went big for him in '04 (mostly because of Medicare Part D) unhappy. Seniors voted for Gore in 2000, but generation shifts (more Boomers) and Medicare Part D made them one of his biggest support groups. But what tanked his approval ratings was not Iraq, as the electorate seemed to not really care half as much as the media did, but rather when he alienated the Conservative base by going after immigration reform. He went from around 50 after reelection, to around 40 after SS reform and Katrina, to about 30 after immigration reform efforts. Lehmann Bros got him to 22, but his lame duck conduct was dignified and admirable, and combined with the Surge actually getting some results, got him back up to around 35 when he left office.

2006, much like 2014 for the Democrats, was just a bad year for the Republicans in terms of which states were up for grabs. Bush was able to rally the base despite all the 2006 GOP inter party scandals, but not enough for it to count. It was indeed a thumpin'.

How to reverse this? Not going after Social Security and handling Katrina better. Iraq did not affect 2006. The image that the Bush Administration was internally incompetent in times of crisis like Katrina, and the alienation of one of his biggest emerging support groups, was what screwed the GOP in 2006.

Hispanic voters generally liked Bush a lot more than his party, and generally disliked the GOP. This was not going to change the midterms if immigration reform got passed.

I would agree that Iraq's damage was oversold by the media at the time, but I think Katrina's was somewhat oversold as well. Social Security reform, the criminally underrated Foley scandal and the normal six year itch were the biggest factors on Election Day.

I watched the polls and the cable news at the time and the media had a month of wall to wall coverage for in the run up to the vote directly linking the GOP leadership including Hastert to keeping under raps Mark Foley hitting on 17, 18, 19 year old male congressional pages. It dropped GOP favorability as a party ten points nationally in a month right before the election.

Then the media promptly forgot about the scandal after the election.

If Bush pushed Immigration Reform first right after the election as he now says he should have done he might have gotten it in which case I still think the Foley scandal and the six year itch still loses 2006 for the GOP though a bit less bad and Bush tries and fails to get SS reform in 2007, but in the end the economic crisis does in the GOP in 2008 as the party in power aways gets burned from such crises, though it might have been mitigated a bit if you had a GOP candidate like Romney who could talk economics

If Bush feels politically secure enough after winning on Immigration he might dump Rumsfeld a bit earlier. He was already looking for a replacement in 2005 and 2006, but after the revolt of the generals decided to put it off until after the election. Rumsfeld out early presents the chance of a faster change in strategy on Iraq which could save Hillary in the primaries if major progress is as undeniable in mid 2007 as it was by mid 2008.

I still think McCain wins in 2008 and the dem wins the general no matter which and wins reelection... even a ten point swing of Hispanics wouldn't have won 2012 for Romney. The biggest change is no candidate Trump.