WI: George HW Bush never pledges "Read my lips, no new taxes"

RepMR

As it says on the tin, what impact would George HW Bush never pledging 'read my lips, no new taxes' in 1988 have had on his subsequent Presidency and the 1992 election. Would the lack of betrayal over the taxes pledge mean he stood a better chance against Clinton?

EDIT: Based on feedback, also consider what if Bush had made a different strong policy pledge to bring the Reaganites onside in 1988?
 
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Blackfox5

Republicans will still be angry that he raised taxes - period. Bush made the pledge in order to rally conservative support, as everyone knew that he hailed from the moderate wing. The pledge cemented support from the Reagan wing. A better question is without the pledge, does he win at all?
 

RepMR

Blackfox5 said:
Republicans will still be angry that he raised taxes - period. Bush made the pledge in order to rally conservative support, as everyone knew that he hailed from the moderate wing. The pledge cemented support from the Reagan wing. A better question is without the pledge, does he win at all?
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My thoughts are whether he makes a different pledge, read a biography recently and subsequent interviews/panels with Bush historians who seem to unify that Bush's pledge was less about taxes as a specific and more about showing a sense of drivenness and strength, ergo the pledge could've been on any issue to show himself as a strong leader and unite the Reaganites behind him.
 
Indicus

Indicus

Blackfox5 said:
Republicans will still be angry that he raised taxes - period. Bush made the pledge in order to rally conservative support, as everyone knew that he hailed from the moderate wing. The pledge cemented support from the Reagan wing. A better question is without the pledge, does he win at all?
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Yes. He won't lose just because he doesn't say six words. And 1988 was won by a pretty big margin, too.

I think Clinton can just point out another broken compromise on the part of Bush, but I doubt it'll be as effective. So, perhaps Clinton has a smaller landslide in 1992.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Don't quite get the point that Bush doesn't appear strong enough, has to make a point of showing strength, etc.

The guy joined up the day of his 18th birthday during World War II, for a while was the youngest Naval pilot in service, flew 50+ missions. On one mission, he took fire, continued to his target and dropped bombs, and then bailed at sea.

I think this is a case in which continued assertion becomes perception.
 
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TimTurner

TimTurner

The best POD for making Poppy reelected would be saving Atwater imo. Combined with this, you could almost make him favored for reelection.
 

RepMR

GeographyDude said:
Don't quite get the point that Bush doesn't appear strong enough, has to make a point of showing strength, etc.

The guy joined up the day of his 18th birthday during World War II, for a while was the youngest Naval pilot in service, flew 50+ missions. On one mission, he took fire, continued to his target and dropped bombs, and then bailed at sea.

I think this is a case in which continued assertion becomes perception.
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Agreed on Bush's naval career, he certainly wasn't a weak man but there is evidence from the 1980 primaries and during his time as VP to show that the media were portraying Bush as a preppy, weak and indecisive politician (the last due to his moderate, centrist outlook) which had begun to become an issue for Bush as he ran in 88, therefore a big reason for making the taxes pledge was to show he could deliver strong leadership
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
The funny thing is, when Ford consider Bush as his vice president, Bush was considered conservative. Well, what was considered conservative in '74, not necessarily in '88.

Alright, Bush can have allies among elected officials matter-of-factly making his case. Admittedly, a lot of Senators, Governors, etc, like to hang back early in the nomination process.

And in his own campaigning, Bush could talk about his oil business in west Texas as a young man, as maybe part of a broader conversation about less regulation, smarter regulation, economic growth, etc. All traditional Republican values.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
With the mission where Bush's plane was hit and he bailed at sea, there's a tragic element in that his two crew members did not make it. One guy didn't make it out of the plane, and the other guy's chute didn't open.

I don't think Bush did anything wrong. I'm sure his fellow pilots told him, you handled it just right, sometimes these things just happen and that's all there is to it.

Maybe Bush says, every once in a while I still say a prayer for these guys and their families. I don't know what he says. But something brief and dignified is generally the way to handle it.
 
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