WI : Francis II of Brittany dies early

The dispute over the inheritance of Brittany between the Montforts and the Penthièvres dates back to the Hundred Years War, with the First Breton Succession War being one of the sub-conflicts of the Hundred Years War, lasting from 1341 to 1365.
It was brought to an end by the Treaty of Guérande, which stated the Montforts would be Dukes of Brittany, but when their line would run out of males, it would pass down the Penthièvre line.
A century of history later, Francis II of Brittany was the last Montfort Duke of Brittany, having had a stillborn son and two daughters, Anne and Isabeau.
However, the Penthièvre succession rights were purchased by Louis XI the Spider, King of France, from Nicole de Châtillon-Penthièvre, on the 3rd of January 1480.
As such, controlling the Breton succession, in the wake of the Burgundian inheritance, became a major point of focus for the French monarchy. After an ill-advised rebellion during the Mad War, Anne de Beaujeu, the regent of France, would impose the Treaty of Sablé placing four key Breton fortresses under French occupation and forcing the Duke of Brittany to require royal assent to marry his daughters.
The Duke would soon pass. While Charles VIII put the duchy under sequestre to investigate the state of inheritance, Anne of Brittany was proclaimed Duchess to protect local autonomy from the Crown, and sought to marry Maximilian von Habsburg, already responsible for separating Burgundy's territories (aside from the Apanages) from France. This led to the French-Breton War, and the marriage of Charles VIII to Anne of Brittany instead, which would cost France Artois and the Free County of Burgundy. In addition, retaining Brittany would remain the major point of focus of French matrimonial policy for the next three decades.

What, then, would have happened if Francis II of Brittany died in late December 1479 ?
The purchase of the Penthièvre succession rights was already in the cards, but it wouldn't be Nicole de Penthièvre who would inherit Brittany, but her son Jean II de Brosse.
In addition, it is doubtful that the succession of Brittany allowed for a straight cession of the succession rights, the determination of if Brittany was a sovereign Duchy or a French vassal always was a major point of dispute between Paris and Naoned.
Anne and Isabelle being both toddlers at the time (being born respectively in 1477 and 1478), they would most likely be out of the picture. Jean II, Viscount of Rohan, Lord of Léon and Count of Porhoët, however, would most likely attempt to claim the Duchy, what with being the heir according to the Breton succession prior to the Treaty of Guérande. In addition, with France in the midst of the Burgundian Succession War, it is unlikely that it would have overmuch troops to spare initially.

As such, my interpretation is :
1) First Jean of Rohan would take over Brittany, either as regent for Anne or in his own name.
2) The Spider King would probably support the Penthièvre claim to Brittany, but be unable to initially act upon it. The purchase of the Penthièvre rights would probably be altered in some fashion.
3) When the Burgundian Succession War winds down, either the Spider King or Anne de Beaujeu would invade Brittany and topple Rohan, in exchange for either the Duchy itself, or merely full recognition of Brittany as a French fief... and probably some conditions on Breton succession (ie what standards would be applied to declare it in disinherence)
4) The marriage between Charles VIII and Margaret of Austria would probably not get called off.

What's your opinion on that matter ?
 
The dispute over the inheritance of Brittany between the Montforts and the Penthièvres dates back to the Hundred Years War, with the First Breton Succession War being one of the sub-conflicts of the Hundred Years War, lasting from 1341 to 1365.
It was brought to an end by the Treaty of Guérande, which stated the Montforts would be Dukes of Brittany, but when their line would run out of males, it would pass down the Penthièvre line.
A century of history later, Francis II of Brittany was the last Montfort Duke of Brittany, having had a stillborn son and two daughters, Anne and Isabeau.
However, the Penthièvre succession rights were purchased by Louis XI the Spider, King of France, from Nicole de Châtillon-Penthièvre, on the 3rd of January 1480.
As such, controlling the Breton succession, in the wake of the Burgundian inheritance, became a major point of focus for the French monarchy. After an ill-advised rebellion during the Mad War, Anne de Beaujeu, the regent of France, would impose the Treaty of Sablé placing four key Breton fortresses under French occupation and forcing the Duke of Brittany to require royal assent to marry his daughters.
The Duke would soon pass. While Charles VIII put the duchy under sequestre to investigate the state of inheritance, Anne of Brittany was proclaimed Duchess to protect local autonomy from the Crown, and sought to marry Maximilian von Habsburg, already responsible for separating Burgundy's territories (aside from the Apanages) from France. This led to the French-Breton War, and the marriage of Charles VIII to Anne of Brittany instead, which would cost France Artois and the Free County of Burgundy. In addition, retaining Brittany would remain the major point of focus of French matrimonial policy for the next three decades.

What, then, would have happened if Francis II of Brittany died in late December 1479 ?
The purchase of the Penthièvre succession rights was already in the cards, but it wouldn't be Nicole de Penthièvre who would inherit Brittany, but her son Jean II de Brosse.
In addition, it is doubtful that the succession of Brittany allowed for a straight cession of the succession rights, the determination of if Brittany was a sovereign Duchy or a French vassal always was a major point of dispute between Paris and Naoned.
Anne and Isabelle being both toddlers at the time (being born respectively in 1477 and 1478), they would most likely be out of the picture. Jean II, Viscount of Rohan, Lord of Léon and Count of Porhoët, however, would most likely attempt to claim the Duchy, what with being the heir according to the Breton succession prior to the Treaty of Guérande. In addition, with France in the midst of the Burgundian Succession War, it is unlikely that it would have overmuch troops to spare initially.

As such, my interpretation is :
1) First Jean of Rohan would take over Brittany, either as regent for Anne or in his own name.
2) The Spider King would probably support the Penthièvre claim to Brittany, but be unable to initially act upon it. The purchase of the Penthièvre rights would probably be altered in some fashion.
3) When the Burgundian Succession War winds down, either the Spider King or Anne de Beaujeu would invade Brittany and topple Rohan, in exchange for either the Duchy itself, or merely full recognition of Brittany as a French fief... and probably some conditions on Breton succession (ie what standards would be applied to declare it in disinherence)
4) The marriage between Charles VIII and Margaret of Austria would probably not get called off.

What's your opinion on that matter ?
The question is whether Mary of Burgundy lives longer or not.
 
I prefer the butterflies of Mary surviving.

Mary, Duchess of Burgundy b 1457 d 1513 m Maximilian I, Holy Roman Emperor b 1459 d 1512

Issue:

Philip the Handsome b 1478
Margaret of Austria b 1480
Francis of Austria b 1482
Mary of Austria b 1486
That is a secondary POD unrelated to the first, and thus irrelevant.
I mean seriously, what does putting up random descent bring to the discussion when we're talking about short-term geopolitical consequences ?
 
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That is a secondary POD unrelated to the first, and thus irrelevant.
I mean seriously, what does putting up random descent bring to the discussion when we're talking about short-term geopolitical consequences ?
Sort of spiraled away with it. I deleted my post.
 
The Spider King would probably support the Penthièvre claim to Brittany, but be unable to initially act upon it. The purchase of the Penthièvre rights would probably be altered in some fashion.
Maybe some sort of agreement where Jean is given (limited) military aid to take Brittany, and money in exchange for the King of France being recognized as heir apparent of Brittany? Adds Brittany to the crownlands and frees up French resources for other wars.

Otoh you could just argue he'd just break the Burgundian betrothal ala OTL Charles VIII and get it faster that way as well.

Either way could be pretty interesting. A friendly/under a Regency Brittany means that France has the potential to have more success against Burgundy in the build up to 1482 Arras, and depending on the degree of the alt success perhaps we'd be seeing more territories being ceded.

Although Charles being maybe married to Anne could cause issues in regards to that. Him instead being married to Margaret to Austria would mean he doesn't feel the need to return Artois tho, so France may be losing *just* Roussilon when France goes adventuring in Italy.

Pretty interesting what if, all in all.
 
Well, Anne becomes duchess earlier, for one
A toddler's claim is much easier to contest... and it's far more likely that the toddler will not make it anyway.
The political decision of the Breton legislature to crown Anne IOTL was feasible because she could be married.
But she won't be even remotely marriageable for years, so it's more likely they choose someone else.
 
A toddler's claim is much easier to contest... and it's far more likely that the toddler will not make it anyway.
The political decision of the Breton legislature to crown Anne IOTL was feasible because she could be married.
But she won't be even remotely marriageable for years, so it's more likely they choose someone else.
While likelier, there is the chance that Anne will wed a powerful lord/king/duke/person who can help her take Brittany back and she will be supported as rightful heiress
 
While likelier, there is the chance that Anne will wed a powerful lord/king/duke/person who can help her take Brittany back and she will be supported as rightful heiress
The definition of "rightful heiress" is already in debate due to the Treaties of Guérande and the old Breton succession law. By either account, she has no right. So that's fairly shaky ground, only by actually taking the Duchy would an interpretation be found to support her being the rightful heiress.
And by the time she is marriageable, the Duchy would most likely be either Jean de Brosse or Charles VIII. At which point, well, French-aligned rule over the Duchy would've been consolidated, and Rohan cemented as the primary alternative, in my opinion. the Habsburg would be highly indebted, the Trastamara marrying each other, and the English more likely to see their campaign end in a Patay or Castillon than a Crécy or Azincourt.
In addition, waiting longer would cement the legitimacy of the French claimant further, even if it would perhaps change the ratio of strength, meaning a weaker hold over Brittany, and more likely a significant liability for whoever she marries in ulterior conflicts.
 
I definitely think Rohan will get the duchy, either as regent for Anne or as duke (he was married to Francis's former sister-in-law Marie, who was Duke Francis I's daughter after all). He'll probably betroth Anne to his son François, whose death will probably be butterflied since he was killed in 1488 at the Battle of Saint-Aubin-du-Cormier OTL.
And I can see him seeking an alliance with England and maybe Burgundy too.
 
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Hm, an interesting question. From what I can tell, the Bretons saw the Penthièvre claim as void after Oliver Comte de Penthièvre imprisoned Duke John V in 1420 and was subsequently forced into exile. While the Penthièvres did regain their Breton territories under Jean II in 1448 (after reconciling with François I) their claim was still void. So Unless the Penthièvre claimants have supporters in Brittany or Louis XI is able to provide troops, then Anne will succeed as Duchess.

Now, as for Anne's regent, we'd likely see her mother Marguerite de Foix serve that role. Such a role was usually awarded to the mother when she was alive. I could also see Jean II de Rohan as a major player in her administration.

As for Anne's marriage, well OTL Jean II proposed a double marriage between his sons François and Jean and François II's daughters. The Duke rejected it, which pushed the Rohans into the French camp. So perhaps Marguerite sees the benefits and accepts. That unites the two potential Montfort claims and presents a strong front to France. While Louis XI might try something with the Penthièvre claim, I think he'll still have his hands full with Burgundy (the conflict didn't end until 1482) and by the time he's free to turn his attention to Brittany, the situation there will have largely stabilized. Without the poor relations between François II and Louis XI, there's no real reason to think that Louis would make a play for the Duchy. After all, the Burgundian lands were much more valuable and important for France.
 
While Louis XI might try something with the Penthièvre claim, I think he'll still have his hands full with Burgundy (the conflict didn't end until 1482) and by the time he's free to turn his attention to Brittany, the situation there will have largely stabilized.
True, especially as Mary of Burgundy's death is easily butterflied here.
 
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