WI: Ford doesn't run in '76.
- Thread starter DTanza
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The Democrats probably don't change much. They were really running against Nixon's legacy rather than Ford himself. It's possible Carter might change his running mate though.
The Republicans... it's actually possible Nelson Rockefeller might run for the upteenth time, but the field will more likely be along the lines of Ronald Reagan, Harold Stassen, and maybe a few minor faces. Reagan would probably sweep the line regardless, having come so close to defeating Ford OTL. His running mate's a hard guess.
I think we'd have a narrow Republican victory, but leading to a Democrat-dominated '80's.
The Republicans... it's actually possible Nelson Rockefeller might run for the upteenth time, but the field will more likely be along the lines of Ronald Reagan, Harold Stassen, and maybe a few minor faces. Reagan would probably sweep the line regardless, having come so close to defeating Ford OTL. His running mate's a hard guess.
I think we'd have a narrow Republican victory, but leading to a Democrat-dominated '80's.
Excuse me; why is everyone assuming that Reagan wins the general election? I agree that he likely gets the Republican nomination. However, lets not forget that Reagan, outside of Republican circles, was seen as a dangerous radical up until his debates with Carter in OTL. In this ATL, that reputation is still going strong, and we are talking about an election which was the Democrats to lose. Although Carter won the election narrowly, he did so after blowing a very large lead over Ford.
Even assuming that Carter wins the nomination in this situation (which is likely, but not foregone), we still have a situation where the nation was looking for a change from what was viewed as a corrupt Republican administration (Ford, by agreeing not to run, is going to play into this narrative. Here the nation has an honorable, albeit viewed as bumbling, President who was a care taker and agrees not to run, and then the Republican exstablishment gives them REAGAN!?!).
Although I don't think Reagan Goldwaters it; I could see a situation where the Democrats win handedly, especially if they run someone besides Carter (even Carter likely could beat Reagan in this situation, although almost as narrowly as he won in OTL).
Of course, this leads up to an interesting situation in 1980; is it George Bush or Jack Kemp who runs against Carter? Both of them would be much easier to beat than Reagan in OTL, and would have some interesting butterflies.
Even assuming that Carter wins the nomination in this situation (which is likely, but not foregone), we still have a situation where the nation was looking for a change from what was viewed as a corrupt Republican administration (Ford, by agreeing not to run, is going to play into this narrative. Here the nation has an honorable, albeit viewed as bumbling, President who was a care taker and agrees not to run, and then the Republican exstablishment gives them REAGAN!?!).
Although I don't think Reagan Goldwaters it; I could see a situation where the Democrats win handedly, especially if they run someone besides Carter (even Carter likely could beat Reagan in this situation, although almost as narrowly as he won in OTL).
Of course, this leads up to an interesting situation in 1980; is it George Bush or Jack Kemp who runs against Carter? Both of them would be much easier to beat than Reagan in OTL, and would have some interesting butterflies.
I see a few more "moderates" who in OTL supported Ford entering the race for the 76 nomination, though that depends on when exactly Ford announces his non-candidacy.
I still think Reagan is the most likely nominee. Assuming that's what happens, whether he loses to Carter depends on a number of factors. I think he has an outside chance of beating Carter, though Jummy is still the most likely victor imho.
If Reagan does win however, I can't see the GOP winning again in either 1980 or 1984.
If Carter wins against Reagan in 76, I'm not sure about Ronnie's chances 4 years later. He could make the case that he made the election close, which could help, though imho he has more of a chance of falling short in 1980 with a 76 run behind him than he did IOTL.
I still think Reagan is the most likely nominee. Assuming that's what happens, whether he loses to Carter depends on a number of factors. I think he has an outside chance of beating Carter, though Jummy is still the most likely victor imho.
If Reagan does win however, I can't see the GOP winning again in either 1980 or 1984.
If Carter wins against Reagan in 76, I'm not sure about Ronnie's chances 4 years later. He could make the case that he made the election close, which could help, though imho he has more of a chance of falling short in 1980 with a 76 run behind him than he did IOTL.
I thought it was more of an Anti-Nixon mood that helped the Dems in 1976? Reagan, like Carter, is an "outsider". He'd lose some moderate votes that Ford won in OTL and I do think the GOP were better off picking Ford in 1976.
Having said that, a Reagan win, while less likely than Ford winning against Carter imho, isn't completely out of the question. Any Reagan win in 1976 would be extremely narrow though-and a poisoned chalice in retrospect.
Having said that, a Reagan win, while less likely than Ford winning against Carter imho, isn't completely out of the question. Any Reagan win in 1976 would be extremely narrow though-and a poisoned chalice in retrospect.
I must say that having lived through Watergate and the period in question I believe that Reagan could have won. He was an outside and a former Governor of California. He was still popular in that state. Gerald Ford seemed unable to fire up the base. He was not a very effective Minority leader and many regard his Presidency as lack luster.
If Reagan was elected then we might see a lot of changes in the late 1970's. So I would not say that the democrats would automatically win in either 1980 or 1984.
If Reagan was elected then we might see a lot of changes in the late 1970's. So I would not say that the democrats would automatically win in either 1980 or 1984.
Like Bri2k, I also lived through Watergate, I was in high school and college at the time. Given the mood of the country in the early post-Watergate era I don't think any Republican could have won in 1976, not even Reagan.
I think it took just what we had in our timeline, a weak president like Jimmy Carter and an economy and country falling apart to get a Republican elected in 1980.
Americans had been hurt and deeply disappointed by "insiders" "the establishment" whatever you call it both Republican and Democrat. In 1980 they were ready for change. They saw Ronald Reagan as an outsider with new ideas who would for want of a better term make America be America again.
Bottom line: I'm not sure who the Republicans would have nominated in 1976 had Ford not run, but even if Ford had not run the outcome would have been the same as in our timeline. Jimmy Carter would have won in 1976. Ronald Reagan would have won in 1980.
I think it took just what we had in our timeline, a weak president like Jimmy Carter and an economy and country falling apart to get a Republican elected in 1980.
Americans had been hurt and deeply disappointed by "insiders" "the establishment" whatever you call it both Republican and Democrat. In 1980 they were ready for change. They saw Ronald Reagan as an outsider with new ideas who would for want of a better term make America be America again.
Bottom line: I'm not sure who the Republicans would have nominated in 1976 had Ford not run, but even if Ford had not run the outcome would have been the same as in our timeline. Jimmy Carter would have won in 1976. Ronald Reagan would have won in 1980.
Carter won the election by less than two percentage points, 50% to 48%.
The election result was pretty close in some big states, like Pennsylvania, Texas, New York, and Ohio.
Get somebody who is not as linked to Nixon as Ford, and Carter will have a tough job getting elected.
Reagan would probably have a very good shot at winning in '76 if he had won the Republican nomination.
The election result was pretty close in some big states, like Pennsylvania, Texas, New York, and Ohio.
Get somebody who is not as linked to Nixon as Ford, and Carter will have a tough job getting elected.
Reagan would probably have a very good shot at winning in '76 if he had won the Republican nomination.
I don't mean to sound condescending, but did anyone else happen to notice Reagan nearly won the Republican nomination in 1976 OTL?
I don't think a "fringe outsider" comes that close to stealing the presidential nomination from an incumbent. I'm not exactly Reagan's biggest fan, but he was a strong candidate and I don't see his possible candidacy being blown away by eliminating Ford. His presidency? Possibly, but that's a lot harder to tell. Butterflies are hard buggers to catch.
I don't think a "fringe outsider" comes that close to stealing the presidential nomination from an incumbent. I'm not exactly Reagan's biggest fan, but he was a strong candidate and I don't see his possible candidacy being blown away by eliminating Ford. His presidency? Possibly, but that's a lot harder to tell. Butterflies are hard buggers to catch.
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