IOTL, not too long after ascending to the Presidency Gerald Ford decided to pardon Richard Nixon for whatever crimes he had committed in connection to Watergate. While he probably thought that by doing this America could move on from Watergate, all it ended up doing was damage Ford's fledgling presidency and made him look crooked as well. Additionally Nixon getting away with his crimes may have further damaged public trust in government. So what if Ford decided not to pardon Nixon? Do the eventual Nixon trials become a media circus? Does it hurt Republicans even more in 1974 and 1976? What are the impacts on the office of the Presidency, and on America itself?
WI: Ford doesn't pardon Nixon
- Thread starter Bomster
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Nixon is likely indicted and convicted for obstruction of justice (at least), but for his safety (and because the judge is uncomfortable sending the President to jail) he is placed in home incarceration. I imagine that Nixon serves his sentence until 1981 or so, depending on how the judge determines sentencing.
This would satisfy popular calls for justice and Ford will maintain much of his popularity as he'd be seen as the "white knight" who redeemed the Presidency from Nixon's dirty tricks. I have no doubt that he would defeat Carter in 1976. However seeing a US President being sentenced as a criminal would reinforce the shame that many Americans felt after Vietnam and Watergate.
I've heard alternative theories that Nixon being indicted would hurt Republicans alot more than pardoning him did.
I think initially it might if Nixon is indicted before November 1974, though given that 1974 was already a bloodbath for the GOP I'm not sure how much things would change politically. By 1976 Ford will be seen as the leader who restored confidence in the integrity of the Presidency and moved the country beyond Watergate. Importantly, he would not be associated with Nixon and he will show the country a side of the GOP that rejects Nixon's legacy.
That said, do you have any quotes or evidence from people arguing that prosecuting Nixon would have hurt the GOP? Just curious to get the other perspective.
He would probably defeat Carter to be sure, possibly from leftover popularity. Of course, 1976-1980 would still be plagued with economic issues and just plain political fatigue for Republicans. Additionally, I suspect that this along with his problematic administration would cause a large rift in the Republicans. Carter's loss would mean that the Dems would be more apt to try and run a more lefty idealist to capitalize on the need for hope. Mo Udall comes to mind though unsure (on the other hand, he could have the VP to balance that).
This would likely kill the rise of the second wave of neocons given how I see them being for Nixon being pardoned and for also causing division among the GOP. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Dems doing well with the economy would be high, especially if able to restore hope and optimism. So basically, lefty Reagan effect.
Udall was diagnosed with Parkinson's in 1980, so I'm not sure if he'd run again. But if he did run, he'd have a good chance of winning the nomination and the election. Any Democrat would be elected President in this ALT-1980, even if the charismatic Reagan is the nominee.
He considered running in 1984.
Besides I figure he would use it also to promote his Vice President, who would continue on his work. So at most, he could be a one term president (declining to run in 1984) and work on getting the major stuff (like a universal healthcare system up) and then leave the rest to his VP (who would likely rely on Udall's charisma and later being incumbent to run). Maybe Walter Mondale to maintain moderate support.
I do reckon another effect would be that rather than having "Reaganites" as the dominant force in the party, it'd be something like "Geraldists"
marathag
Banned
No one was ever an enthusiastic follower of Jerry Ford, he just didn't have that kind or charisma, plus the leader has to put his stamp on a belief or a movement.
What did he stand for?
Ford was seen as a decent guy, but his time in the House showed him as a 'go along to get along' Minority Leader
He made no waves, rocked no boats.
You don't start a movement and get followers doing that.
LBJ's remarks were cutting, and had just enough truth behind them to stick.
back then, there was the mean remark on Ford's boosters, calling them 'Jerry's Kids' a take from the Jerry Lewis Telethon tag line
20 years later, Bill Clinton has Jimmy Carter as an advisor to his administration instead of Nixon.
Could Ford win the Republican primary if he doesn't? Keep in mind the right was pissed over Nixon and believed him a wrongly persecuted man, driven out of office. Reagan very nearly came close to beating Ford OTL, this might push him over the top.
I don't think Reagan would want to conjure up the memory of Nixon that much during his primary campaign. Remember he was still trying to appeal to moderates back then (such as by choosing Richard Schweiker as his running mate at the convention).