WI: Ferdinand Cohen-Blind assassinates Bismarck?

[EnglishCanuck]

So members more well versed in German history than I probably know that Ferdinand Cohen-Blind attempted to assassinate Otto von Bismarck on May 7th 1866. He managed to get five shots off only grazing the Iron Chancellor before being apprehended by passing soldiers.

What if he manages to kill Bismarck? Who takes over as Prime Minister?

Of course dozens of questions spiral out from there but I leave that up for further discussion

 

[Byzantion]

So members more well versed in German history than I probably know that Ferdinand Cohen-Blind attempted to assassinate Otto von Bismarck on May 7th 1866. He managed to get five shots off only grazing the Iron Chancellor before being apprehended by passing soldiers.

What if he manages to kill Bismarck? Who takes over as Prime Minister?

Of course dozens of questions spiral out from there but I leave that up for further discussion

Without him as a strategist and diplomat there would have been many butterflies at this point, possibly the later war and victory against France as well. Certainly, there wouldn´t have been a coronation event in Versailles in 1871.

 

[Westphalian]

The new Prussian prime minister? Whoever has the trust and support of Wilhelm I.
The Minister of War, Albrecht von Roon, seems a possibility. He had a military background and was the architect of the new Prussian army that had won the Danish War of 1864. It is certainly much more likely than moving Moltke sideways into politics.

Roon would, of course, lack the diplomacy that allowed Bismarck to paper over the rift between the court and the liberal-dominated Landtag. I expect that Roon would demand the factual capitulation of the Liberals, possibly even threatening anti-demagogue reprisals based on the assassination of Bismarck.

Meanwhile, what about Schleswig-Holstein in detail and Austria in general?
Prussia clearly desired control over S-H so it could build the Kiel Canal, connecting the North Sea and the Baltic, plus Kiel as naval port.

Who will be the new Minister of Foreign Affairs? Bismarck's deputy in the office was Hermann von Thile, who had clearly different priorities: He abhorred any cooperation with France and Sardinian Italy against Austria and the German Bund. But it is far from certain that Thile will be appointed, it might be as well an amabassador who gets the nod.

 

[Westphalian]

BTW, the next date to look out for is 1st June 1866. On this day, the Austrian governor in Holstein asks the Estates of Holstein to assemble in Itzehoe on the 11th June.
This breaks the Prussian-Austrian agreement of Gastein about the governing of S and H; and it is basically the crossing of the Rubicon on the way to the war.

In this TL, the Austrian government might be even rasher, trying to create facts on the ground while the successor of Bismarck still has to get up to speed. Or they might deliberate more, waiting until the consequences of having a new Prussian government are clear. But my gut says that for 1866, the first option is more likely. Being thoughtful just does not seem like Austria's modus operandi.

Further explanation: Austria's goal is the election of its protegé, the Augustenburg Duke, as ruler of Holstein (and presumably Schleswig) by the Holstein estates. IOW, using popular voting when it is useful to deny Prussia's goals in Prussia's own "backyard" of Northern Germany. It is a clear provocation meant to force Prussia to back down, give up its goals in Holstein and lose lots of face.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

The new Prussian prime minister? Whoever has the trust and support of Wilhelm I.
The Minister of War, Albrecht von Roon, seems a possibility. He had a military background and was the architect of the new Prussian army that had won the Danish War of 1864. It is certainly much more likely than moving Moltke sideways into politics.

Roon would, of course, lack the diplomacy that allowed Bismarck to paper over the rift between the court and the liberal-dominated Landtag. I expect that Roon would demand the factual capitulation of the Liberals, possibly even threatening anti-demagogue reprisals based on the assassination of Bismarck.

Any other runners up to take Bismarck's place if he dies?

Killing Bismarck is a huge butterfly for Prussia/Germany so I'm curious what other minds were up high on the list for guiding Prussia through this turbulent time in European history.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Bumping in the hopes of more ideas

 

[Prince of Orange]

Hard to name a replacement. Perhaps Bismarck's predecessor, Otto von Manteuffel would be pulled out of retirement. He was by all accounts quite capable. Problem is that he would probably be too moderate for the tastes of king Wilhelm, who fired him in the first place.

 

[Westphalian]

Hard to name a replacement. Perhaps Bismarck's predecessor, Otto von Manteuffel would be pulled out of retirement. He was by all accounts quite capable. Problem is that he would probably be too moderate for the tastes of king Wilhelm, who fired him in the first place.

I think you are a bit mistaken. Manteuffel's dismissal is connected with the Neue Kurs of Wilhelm, who at the beginning tried liberal reforms - until the conflict with the Landtag started.

Manteuffel was an authoritarian conservative - not an reactionary Junker, but a anti-democratic and anti-revolutionary governmentalist who tried to govern aabove all parties, just with the Prussian bureaucracy. One century earlier he would have been a good assistant for the enlightened absolutist Friedrich II.

Had he been offered and accepted the premiership, he would have been horrified by Bismarck's plan. For Manteuffel, any kind of closer German union would be fatal for his Prussia exceptionalism. Trusting cooperation with Austria was the best way to fight revolutionary movements.

I think he might have had a chace to pull Wilhelm I. back from war aginst Austria, simply by appealing to his fear of losing Prussia's identity in a greater association of German states.

 

[Mikestone8]

I think you are a bit mistaken. Manteuffel's dismissal is connected with the Neue Kurs of Wilhelm, who at the beginning tried liberal reforms - until the conflict with the Landtag started.

Manteuffel was an authoritarian conservative - not an reactionary Junker, but a anti-democratic and anti-revolutionary governmentalist who tried to govern aabove all parties, just with the Prussian bureaucracy. One century earlier he would have been a good assistant for the enlightened absolutist Friedrich II.

Had he been offered and accepted the premiership, he would have been horrified by Bismarck's plan. For Manteuffel, any kind of closer German union would be fatal for his Prussia exceptionalism. Trusting cooperation with Austria was the best way to fight revolutionary movements.

I think he might have had a chace to pull Wilhelm I. back from war aginst Austria, simply by appealing to his fear of losing Prussia's identity in a greater association of German states.

Even OTL, he really annoyed Bismarck by allowing the Austrian forces in Holstein to withdraw without a fight. I get the feeling that even at that eleventh hour (more like 11.59 actually) he still hoped that full-blown war could be avoided.

 

[Mikestone8]

BTW, the next date to look out for is 1st June 1866. On this day, the Austrian governor in Holstein asks the Estates of Holstein to assemble in Itzehoe on the 11th June.
This breaks the Prussian-Austrian agreement of Gastein about the governing of S and H; and it is basically the crossing of the Rubicon on the way to the war.

In this TL, the Austrian government might be even rasher, trying to create facts on the ground while the successor of Bismarck still has to get up to speed. Or they might deliberate more, waiting until the consequences of having a new Prussian government are clear. But my gut says that for 1866, the first option is more likely. Being thoughtful just does not seem like Austria's modus operandi..

Of course, the other German states might have thoughts of their own.

OTL, the Federal Diet went 8-5 for mobilisation against Prussia. Would they be so ready to burn their bridges with Bismarck dead and future events up in the air? It would only need two more to opt for "wait and see". Indeed, if such a result seemed likely would Austria submit the motion at all?

 

[Westphalian]

Of course, the other German states might have thoughts of their own.

OTL, the Federal Diet went 8-5 for mobilisation against Prussia. Would they be so ready to burn their bridges with Bismarck dead and future events up in the air? It would only need two more to opt for "wait and see". Indeed, if such a result seemed likely would Austria submit the motion at all?

Had the assassination attempt succeeded, all European history would have been open for great changes.
You don't have to like him, but Bismarck really was a singular character and very much able to think outside the box. The way he coopted the Liberals with nationalistic successes and rhetoric, the far-reaching attempts to break socialism by creating a paternalistic welfare state "nach Gutherrenart", the way he mostly could grasp which changes the other powers could accept and which not - you cannot easily replace this.

Depending on the composition of the new leadership clique, we might see

~ a Prussia that avoids war and continues to work slowly with Austria within the framework of a reformed Bund,
~ a Prussia that goes to war, wins militarily but fumbles the peace by turning all of Germany into bitter enemies,
~ a Prussia that goes to war, wins militarily but finds itself indebted to France
~ a Prussia that goes to war and is militarily crushed in Bohemia, loses territory and becoming a protegé of Russia

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I can't help but think how the cartoonists would rejoice over the guy's name.

Blind killing the blind.

Even a Blind man can assassinate a German.

and, of course, the wildly anti-Semitic wave that would hit (Cohen)

 

[Prince of Orange]

I think you are a bit mistaken. Manteuffel's dismissal is connected with the Neue Kurs of Wilhelm, who at the beginning tried liberal reforms - until the conflict with the Landtag started.

Manteuffel was an authoritarian conservative - not an reactionary Junker, but a anti-democratic and anti-revolutionary governmentalist who tried to govern aabove all parties, just with the Prussian bureaucracy. One century earlier he would have been a good assistant for the enlightened absolutist Friedrich II.

Had he been offered and accepted the premiership, he would have been horrified by Bismarck's plan. For Manteuffel, any kind of closer German union would be fatal for his Prussia exceptionalism. Trusting cooperation with Austria was the best way to fight revolutionary movements.

I think he might have had a chace to pull Wilhelm I. back from war aginst Austria, simply by appealing to his fear of losing Prussia's identity in a greater association of German states.

I stand corrected. Thanks for clarifying Manteuffels policies.

Have to wonder what effect the death of Bismarck would have on the forming of a united Germany. I doubt Prussia would allow an Austria-led united Grossdeutschland. Would German unification be delayed or would the death of Bismarck lead to the and of any possibility for a united Germany.

 

[Mikestone8]

I stand corrected. Thanks for clarifying Manteuffels policies.

Have to wonder what effect the death of Bismarck would have on the forming of a united Germany. I doubt Prussia would allow an Austria-led united Grossdeutschland. Would German unification be delayed or would the death of Bismarck lead to the and of any possibility for a united Germany.

Depends what counts as a united Germany.

The GC could still be strengthened and given a more effective military organisation, but at some point Franz Josef would have to accept the King of Prussia as a co-President (or co- whatever title they used. Since Austria and Prussia are more evenly matched than Prussia and Bavaria were in OTL's Second Reich, it's apt to be a looser union that the latter, but maybe still a power to be reckoned with.