WI: Empire Of Nicaea fails to expand, absorbed into Rum

What if the Empire Of Nicaea (the power that IOTL went on to reconquer Constantinople from the Latin Empire in the 13th century) was defeated by the Seljuks sometime before managing to reconquer Constantinople, such as during the Battle Of Antioch-On-Meander (1211)?
Who is more likely to conquer Constantinople afterwards? The Bulgarians, the Epirotes, or the Seljuks?
If the last option is the most probable one, then do we see an earlier turkish expansion into the balkans? Or do the Seljuks stagnate in Thrace?
 
I think it might be a mixed blessing.

In the west, yes they have more territory, but suddenly there is an outside threat that might help rally the Latins around the Latin Empire in Constantinople. Picking that fight could get messy, especially if Venice gets involved.

In the east, there is Trezbizond, who to be honest is relying on Georgia for its survival at this point (and a beefy Georgia too), but will likely become vassals as per OTL. There might be more controversy as they are now the only claimant to the Roman throne that is Orthodox, which might see some loyalists/restorationists head that way to seek shelter or provide support, boosting them a little, but I don't see it making a massive difference.

What I do see, is a stronger Sultanate subduing Trezbizond, and then spending its energies in the east against the smaller Turkish states, before it (as per OTL) getting hit by the Mongols.

When that causes it to collapse - what I can see is that with the Latin Empire in the West, and the Orthodox Trezbizond in the East, that the period of peace under Seljuk rule will have seen Trezbizond do very well, with an increase in Orthodox immigration from other parts of the Seljuk Empire. Which leaves them in a position to take Northern Anatolia, whilst a more unified Latin Empire takes advantage and invades Western Anatolia (killing the Ottomans in the Crib).

Sadly, the Seljuks were doomed IMO by the Mongols. Therefore unless they can become strong enough to hold them off - anything they do will be to the benefit of whoever can take advantage of their collapse. In this case, a stronger Latin West and a resurgence Orthodox North. All in all, with their state constantly exposed to the Turks, I can see the Romans in Trezbizond being more tolerant of Turks and Sunnis, not to the point of conversion, but enough that if they expand they have more understanding and willingness to allow some self-rule whilst using them as auxilaries to the Greek and Georgian forces. Throw in extra support from being the only Orthodox Imperial claimant, and they could do well - and create a new Byzantine Empire for a new Roman Era. (Which, inevitably, historians will dispute, AH forumers will dispute too, and switch between Roman, Neo-Byzantine and Chaldian Empire)
 
In the east, there is Trezbizond, who to be honest is relying on Georgia for its survival at this point (and a beefy Georgia too), but will likely become vassals as per OTL. There might be more controversy as they are now the only claimant to the Roman throne that is Orthodox, which might see some loyalists/restorationists head that way to seek shelter or provide support, boosting them a little, but I don't see it making a massive difference.

Does Epirus not count?
 
Does Epirus not count?

I had completely overlooked them *shameface*

But, with a more unified Latin West, I can see Epirus being a casualty of the Latin Empire, rather than a predator on the Latins, who will almost certainly dissolve Epirus rather than make it a vassal as who needs vassals who claim your throne?
 
Cool ideas.
What about Bulgaria? Are they in a position to threaten the latins?

Well, yes. The Latin Empire is strong in a Hellenic sense (and partnered with Venice can control any attempts to cross from Anatolia), but regionally, Bulgaria, and anyone else could be a problem. I don't know enough about the Nicaean restoration to know how they dealt with Bulgaria.
 
Well, yes. The Latin Empire is strong in a Hellenic sense (and partnered with Venice can control any attempts to cross from Anatolia), but regionally, Bulgaria, and anyone else could be a problem. I don't know enough about the Nicaean restoration to know how they dealt with Bulgaria.

Lots and lots of border wars, which the Byzantines got the better of, until the empirend burned itself out in a civil war and got picked apart by the Serbs and Ottomans.
 
Sadly, the Seljuks were doomed IMO by the Mongols.


Really?

Was there even a Mongol invasion of the Seljuk Sultanate of Rum?

I thought the first "Mongol" to attack in Asia Minor was Timur in about 1400.

This tells me that if the Seljuks defeat Nicaea, and then get Constantinople, during the 1200s, they have a head start expanding in the Balkans, and their Balkan territories will help them weather any Mongol or Timurid invasions *better* than OTL.
 
This tells me that if the Seljuks defeat Nicaea, and then get Constantinople, during the 1200s, they have a head start expanding in the Balkans, and their Balkan territories will help them weather any Mongol or Timurid invasions *better* than OTL.
Well, i believe the best advantage the seljuks would have in controlling, say, Bulgaria, would be having a place to run away to if their anatolian homeland gets overrun by the ilkhanate.
Other than that, it's gonna be a bit harder than what the ottomans faced in the 14th century. The seljuks will have to deal with much better-united foes, like the second bulgarian empire.
Albeit i believe they can still do it. Of course, it's not probable for them to cross the Danube, what with the hungarians being in their zenith, but there's still a possibility for expansion.
 
Really?

Was there even a Mongol invasion of the Seljuk Sultanate of Rum?

I thought the first "Mongol" to attack in Asia Minor was Timur in about 1400.

This tells me that if the Seljuks defeat Nicaea, and then get Constantinople, during the 1200s, they have a head start expanding in the Balkans, and their Balkan territories will help them weather any Mongol or Timurid invasions *better* than OTL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Anatolia
 
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