So they did that because the poles see nappy losing and secretly allied with the coaltion to remain independent and Basically becomes a buffer state between Russia, Prussia Austria. What would it's consequences? Assuming that it goes well, who would rule this nation after the king of saxony dies and him not having any male kids, only 1 female.
WI: Duchy of Warsaw backstabs Nappy and remains independent
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If Poniatowski survives, they could marry her with him. If not, there's grand prince Constantin or one of the Habsburgs.
what would jappen if he did and did that and duchy of warsaw remains independent. And backed by russia to become a buffer state?
What could Warsaw possibly offer the coalition in exchange for independence? As far as Prussia, Austria, and Russia were concerned, the Third Partition was a done deal and there was no room for Poland anymore.
Perhaps the dutchy could survive as a rump state in its western reaches around the otl autonomous grand dutchy of Posen but instead of autonomy being granted at the congress they are granted independence as a alternate expanded state filling the otl role of the free city of Krakow (perhaps Prussia is compensated with Saxony)
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
Grand Duchy of Posen - Wikipedia
Free City of Cracow - Wikipedia
Perhaps the dutchy could survive as a rump state in its western reaches around the otl autonomous grand dutchy of Posen but instead of autonomy being granted at the congress they are granted independence as a alternate expanded state filling the otl role of the free city of Krakow (perhaps Prussia is compensated with Saxony)
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Grand Duchy of Posen - Wikipedia
Free City of Cracow - Wikipedia
Poznan and Wielkopolska is the Lebensraum of Prussia...
wouldn't it be nice for Russia to have a buffer state between the powers of central Europe, And the three can just relocate the polish minorities there, so the poles wont rebel in their land, and just have their own state.
Technically, Congress Poland was a buffer state, but it was in personal union with Russia. That's really the only acceptable outcome for Russia, because if Poland is ruled by anyone else, there's a strong risk that it can become a staging ground for an enemy attack, which is exactly what happened in 1812 (and 1941, to devastating effect). One has to remember why Poland was partitioned in the first place - the prospect of the country being open to influence by a rival power was simply too dangerous to allow.
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What can I say that you don’t already know? 😜Summoning @alexmilman
The part involving the Polish promises to abandon the “historic claims” is (IMO) rather on fantastic side: who in Poland would have an authority to give such an assurance with any degree of it being believable? Anyway, why would Russia need such an assurance after Napoleon’s defeat?
Why would in 1814 Russia, Prussia and Austria need a buffer state between them? They were allies and the only point of contention related to Poland was a perspective of having vs. not having a reasonably big sized Polish state with any degree of independence.
What would be Alexander’s reward for his anti-Napoleonic efforts?
Resettlement idea? Yes, sure. To have a small area overcrowded with the exiled Polish nobility (I suspect that the peasantry did not give a damn) with no money, no useful skills, no land (with the serfs) and obvious wish of revenge for losing their estates. Would work just beautifully for everybody. 😜
Unlikely, as the Poles wont do a stupid thing like that, They can just tell russia that Prussia or Austria is pressuring them to become a staging ground for attack to them vice versa. Where they will fiddle with the three powers
the panhandle of the duchy, and huge reparations from france,
I assume this will work. Where they can just send more of their polish minority to that area, to prevent any revolts from them
Territory too meager to be considered an adequate compensation and I doubt that France had enough money. Well, the money are not impressive, anyway (even if needed).
In 1815 chances for rebellion of the Russian Poles was not a high probability worthy of special arrangements. It took existence of the Congress Poland for such a thing happening. Not to mention that at the time in question you could not “just send” many thousands nobles from their estates to a different country without any clear guilt from their side.
It is a plainly absurd suggestion that the Sixth Coalition would allow the Duchy of Warsaw to leave the war independent. Just as Murat was betrayed by his new allies, so too would the Duchy of Warsaw. Congress Poland is about as much as could be realistically hoped for with Napoleon defeated.
It was, Prussians settled tens of thousands German colonists there, and on other newly acquired lands like Silesia
Unlikely? It's what happened OTL (more than once). Again, why was Poland partitioned? Because Russian influence in Danzig was not acceptable to Prussia, nor was Prussian influence in Minsk acceptable to Russia, etc. Especially as a small state, Poland would be more open to foreign pressure than ever before. Independence was not desirable by any of the three powers, so it wasn't going to happen.