WI : Cox wins the 1920 election instead of Harding?

[alex costa]

I was just watching the History International channel Series episode of How Sex changed the world on Sex and Power man and the part on President Warren Harding and the possibility that if his scandals got out in public that could have costed him the Presidency.

What changes could this have provoked in USA in internal affairs and abroad has James Cox won the Presidency?

Would the United States not have went into Isolation?

Could the Great Depression and the Rise of Fascism be prevented by a more interventionist USA?

And would we have seen FDR become President earlier in 1928 leading to twenty straight years of Democratic domination?

 

[Mikestone8]

The revelation that he had an illegitimate kid did not stop Grover Cleveland winning in 1884. And given that in 1920 the Democrats were a total basket case, it's even less likely to stop Harding. Even if it looked like doing so, the Republicans would probably just drop Harding and nominate another candidate, who would win just as easily as Harding did.

The only way you could get a Cox victory is to have Hughes win in 1916. In that event, the backlash against wartime sacrifices etc will work for the Democrats instead of the Republicans, so Cox (or whoever they nominate) probably gets in.

 

[TheImagineer]

The revelation that he had an illegitimate kid did not stop Grover Cleveland winning in 1884. And given that in 1920 the Democrats were a total basket case, it's even less likely to stop Harding. Even if it looked like doing so, the Republicans would probably just drop Harding and nominate another candidate, who would win just as easily as Harding did.

The only way you could get a Cox victory is to have Hughes win in 1916. In that event, the backlash against wartime sacrifices etc will work for the Democrats instead of the Republicans, so Cox (or whoever they nominate) probably gets in.

If Harding drops out over the scandal, which Republican would be most likely to take his place? A worse candidate could possibly help Cox win.

 

[Plumber]

1920 was the most impressive landslide in the history of the United States. No other election had a non-incumbent break 60% of the vote. No other giant landslide has the Solid South voting against the victor. What does this mean? It means Warren Harding got 64.38% of the vote in the North, exactly ten percent higher than Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.

And it doesn't matter who the Republicans or Democrats nominate, because the Republicans are just going to scream "Woodrow Wilson! League of Nations! Woodrow Wilson!" and wipe the floor with the crippled Democratic Party that Wilson left behind.

 

[Mikestone8]

If Harding drops out over the scandal, which Republican would be most likely to take his place? A worse candidate could possibly help Cox win.

One obvious possibility is Harding's fellow Ohioan, former Governor Frank B Willis, who OTL took over Harding's Senate seat. Istr that he was expected to be Ohio's favourite son at the convention, until the party bosses settled on Harding instead.

Alternatively there's Nicholas Murray Butler, Taft's 1912 running-mate after the death of VP Sherman, or Philander Knox, his Secretary of State. Or of course there's always the possibility of the Convention getting the bit between its teeth and stampeding to Calvin Coolidge.

However, I have to agree with Plumber that it makes little odds in November. The Democrats never stood an earthly. If you look at the Congressional results, they held only 31 HoR seats outside the Solid South, of which nine were from the Border states. 1920 was essentially a mirror image of 1912. In the earlier year the Democrats couldn't lose, in the later one the Republicans couldn't. If you want to elect a Dem in that year, you need a PoD well before 1920 and probably before 1917.

 

[tiggerfan]

It is also worth noting that the Democrats (including FDR) were just as conservative on most economic issues as Harding was.

Indeed he ran in 1932 on a platform of *cutting* spending.

 

[Lectruck]

Great depression of 1921 to 1938

President Cox unable to stop the 21% unemployment and massive deficit spending with increased taxes and spending see the nation begin the Great Depression. If only Harding had been president, he cut taxes and spending and turned around the economy.

By the time the US gets out of the depression World War 2 is ready to begin, but the USA is too broke to help out. A dark day in American history.