What if Columbus' fleet was sunk by a storm somewhere in the Atlantic and never reached the New World? How will the butterflies affect world history?
WI: Columbus never reached the New World
- Thread starter Sextus Munatius Piso
- Start date
Well, there would have been an other expedition led by someone else barely a few years later.
One of AH´s favourite questions...
I doubt that another "expedition" would be sent because Columbus had only sailed because of his flawed geographical calculations.
But that doesn`t mean America doesn`t become discovered. There was Basque and probably also English whaling at the Newfoundland coast around that time, which would at some point become known to a wider audience. A Portuguese "mistake" like Cabral`s, which blew him "off course" to Brasil could have happened, too, although there are a lot of question marks around that voyage.
I doubt that another "expedition" would be sent because Columbus had only sailed because of his flawed geographical calculations.
But that doesn`t mean America doesn`t become discovered. There was Basque and probably also English whaling at the Newfoundland coast around that time, which would at some point become known to a wider audience. A Portuguese "mistake" like Cabral`s, which blew him "off course" to Brasil could have happened, too, although there are a lot of question marks around that voyage.
But, of course, a few decades could change a lot. Inner trouble in Spain... different rulers of the Aztecs or Inca... the reformation...
The voyage could be easily butterflied...if the Europeans are distracted about crusade to the middle east.
PhilippeO
Banned
There already several different thread about this. Some of them mention that American exploration through Brazil or Newfoundland would result in massively different America. Brazilwood and Cod instead of Gold and Silver would mean very delayed exploration. it could be by time someone reach Peru or Mexico, the massive empire of Aztec and Inca already disappear.
The portuguese would eventually send expeditions to the west, once they have a safe position in india.
The Americas will be discovered. The Basque were already fishing off the coast of Newfoundland,the Norse had a fairly long-term colony in Greenland and visited Vinland,basically Europeans knew something was out there. There were legends about fabled lands to the west like Brasil,Avalon,Atlantis,Great Ireland and tons more. Europeans have the naval capacity,there's conflict in the Middle East and the Spice Road is highly contested. There will be other explorers finding alternate routes to the Indies. May not be Spanish,might be Portuguese,Genoan,maybe even Irish,but someone will discover the Americas. Could be Amerigo Vespucci,Pedro Alvares Cabral or some other explorer,but the Americas will be discovered sometime in the 16th century. Now with a different discoverer, the treatment of the natives could turn out far different than in OTL. Maybe better,maybe worse.
I think it'd only be the matter of a decade or two, at most, before some other established European expedition reaches the Americas. Regardless of where that new 'first' lands, other explorers (from other countries) will soon explore the rest.
In any case, just a few changes could have significant impacts:
1) Location -- Columbus landed on an island with initially peaceful natives. Someone else landing in an area with overtly hostile natives might be put off (at least for a while) or forced to explore to find a better place.
2) Backing Country -- Columbus was backed by Spain, which benefited greatly from profits from the colonies. Spain also had the resources to devote to considerable further exploration. If a different country gets a sizable portion of the profits Spain got, it could change the European dynamic significantly. If, instead, the 'new Columbus' is backed by a smaller, poorer country, they may not be able to capitalize on their discoveries nearly as well, leaving more to other countries.
3) Personality -- Columbus showed himself to be a poor administrator and rather callous as governor. Another person might perform better, building better relations with the natives and establishing a more enduring settlement.
4) Timing -- If the colonization really got started a decade or two later than IOTL, you could see substantially different effects in dealing with the natives. Different native leaders, more/less internal strife in the native empires, etc. Cortez and the like might have had a much harder time dealing with a slightly different situation.
Ultimately, the Americas are colonized by Europeans, but a different 'discoverer' and discovery date might lead to a substantially different 'spead' of colonies in the Americas and distribution of wealth from there. All of that might also lead to substantially different outcomes for the natives -- better OR worse.
In any case, just a few changes could have significant impacts:
1) Location -- Columbus landed on an island with initially peaceful natives. Someone else landing in an area with overtly hostile natives might be put off (at least for a while) or forced to explore to find a better place.
2) Backing Country -- Columbus was backed by Spain, which benefited greatly from profits from the colonies. Spain also had the resources to devote to considerable further exploration. If a different country gets a sizable portion of the profits Spain got, it could change the European dynamic significantly. If, instead, the 'new Columbus' is backed by a smaller, poorer country, they may not be able to capitalize on their discoveries nearly as well, leaving more to other countries.
3) Personality -- Columbus showed himself to be a poor administrator and rather callous as governor. Another person might perform better, building better relations with the natives and establishing a more enduring settlement.
4) Timing -- If the colonization really got started a decade or two later than IOTL, you could see substantially different effects in dealing with the natives. Different native leaders, more/less internal strife in the native empires, etc. Cortez and the like might have had a much harder time dealing with a slightly different situation.
Ultimately, the Americas are colonized by Europeans, but a different 'discoverer' and discovery date might lead to a substantially different 'spead' of colonies in the Americas and distribution of wealth from there. All of that might also lead to substantially different outcomes for the natives -- better OR worse.
Seems to me that the Portuguese were heading towards a discovery of South America perhaps concurrently with France/England officially discovering North America.
Could a delayed or slower european penetration into the americas favour the aztecs and incas?
Native American is still screwed, smallpox still exists and European's rulers still love conquest and killing.
They were doing it to each other for centuries,there was nothing racist about their treatment of native Americans they treated other Europeans the same way when given the chance.
They were doing it to each other for centuries,there was nothing racist about their treatment of native Americans they treated other Europeans the same way when given the chance.
Planet of Hats
Donor
You may get a more gradual discovery, with the first real documented exposure to native American people coming through trade conducted informally by Basque and Icelandic fishermen and whalers. Someone eventually does follow the stories up, of course, but with the consequence that there are already the beginnings of trade routes in place, and contact takes place later, when you've had a few years for the post-Reconquista zeal to die down.
Smallpox sadly still ravages North America, but hopefully the murder and genocide don't happen if the impetus for discovery comes through a mercantile or trading spirit and not Columbus.
Smallpox sadly still ravages North America, but hopefully the murder and genocide don't happen if the impetus for discovery comes through a mercantile or trading spirit and not Columbus.
Not to get all political but that's some blatant whitewashing.
The Europeans of that period explicitly viewed the Natives as "others" inferior to yes other Europeans.
My guess, as everyone else has pointed out that it would have happened sooner or later, the kingdoms of Europe would have been jealous of the Portugese and someone would have tried some way to by pass both the Ottomans and the Portugese, although you might see more conflict against both for a time.