WI Claudius Killed w/ Caligula (2023 ed)

[John Fredrick Parker]

So we've had a few threads before discussing the potential of a different aftermath in Rome to Caligula's assassination in 41 CE; but the consensus of those seems to be that there would be an earlier civil war, and I happen to think that's a conclusion worth revisiting.

See, I was trying to put together names of people who would actually have a chance of becoming Roman Emperor in the event that Claudius was killed with Caligula, and I can only find the names of a few guys who look like they would actually put their hat in the ring:

• first, just to get it out of the way, we have Senators who were calling for the restoration of the Republic -- among them the Consul Gnaeus Sentius Saturninus
• Marcus Vinicius -- was a conspirator in Caligula's assassination and happened to be married to one of the two remaining children of Germanicus (the other being recently widowed with a toddler son); he also has a nephew, Lucius Annius Vinicianus, who is probably supporting him here
• Decimus Valerius Asiaticus -- no idea what this guy's deal was, but apparently he put his name forward
• Faustus Cornelius Sulla Felix -- Claudius' brother-in-law; outside of his pedigree, I'm not really sure if he has anything going for him here
• Lucius Arruntius Camillus Scribonianus -- he was Governor of Dalmatia at the time, and of the generals commanding troops at the time, was probably in the best position to march on Rome; as it happens OTL, he led a rebellion against Claudius in 42 CE (with the support of the above-mentioned Annius), but it fizzled out; but what's really interesting here is that, apparently, he had been making promises during his rebellion to restore the Senate to its former authority... so is he actually a "republican" sympathizer?

None of the other governors commanding legions I could find -- like Otho's father Africa, or the guy governing Syria at the time -- strike me as guys who would throw their hat in the ring if it meant civil war breaking out, so it looks like we have to work with the above names to try and parse how this plays out.

And how it looks to me -- I don't think we're getting a civil war here (at least not without the involvement of some major player that I just can't find anything on). The way I see it playing out is that Marcus Vinicius emerges as the Senate's proposed candidate to replace Caligula as Emperor (which he partly wins over with some words about "working with the Senate", respecting institutions, etc), which the relevant military commanders (like Scribonianus) are able to go along with easily enough. Now granted, I have no idea how Vinicius would govern as Emperor compared to OTL Claudius; in fact, if it's anything like OTL Nerva's ascension following the assassination of Domitian, there's probably going to be some unrest that can only be pacified by appointing a popular successor. And I have no idea who that could be.

Anyways, thoughts?

 

[piratedude]

Im kinda curious what the republican restoration option is like. Say Scribonianus genuinely is pro-senate and with the invitation of Saturnius moves in to put down Vinicius and then dutifully returns to his post, what then?

The political order has been fundamentally changed so it should be obvious to everyone that just going back to how things used to be isn't possible, but what changes would they make?

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Faustus Cornelius Sulla Felix would make the most sense as the Julio-Claudian candidate, and he was at least prominent enough to have been associated with plots to become emperor under Nero. Another man that I think should not be discounted (I'm tempted to believe that at this stage only someone with connection to the Julio-Claudian dynasty could still succeed to the principate absent civil war) is whomever can marry Agrippina The Younger (who is currently in between marriages following the death of Ahenobarbus and her marriage to Passienus Crispus shortly after Claudius succeeds to the throne) and essentially make themselves the guardian of the young Nero. As essentially now the standard bearer of the much beloved Claudian faction, Agrippina could find herself in the role of kingmaker.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Another man that I think should not be discounted (I'm tempted to believe that at this stage only someone with connection to the Julio-Claudian dynasty could still succeed to the principate absent civil war) is whomever can marry Agrippina The Younger (who is currently in between marriages following the death of Ahenobarbus and her marriage to Passienus Crispus shortly after Claudius succeeds to the throne) and essentially make themselves the guardian of the young Nero. As essentially now the standard bearer of the much beloved Claudian faction, Agrippina could find herself in the role of kingmaker.

Well, as mentioned, Marcus Vinicius is already married to her sister, Julia Livilla. And it's worth noting, those two sisters were (ostensibly) conspiring together in an earlier attempt to kill Caligula, which got them both exiled; presumably, then, they'd trust each other enough that they could work out something where, in effect, Nero becomes the heir to Livilla's husband. Does that work?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Im kinda curious what the republican restoration option is like. Say Scribonianus genuinely is pro-senate and with the invitation of Saturnius moves in to put down Vinicius and then dutifully returns to his post, what then?

The political order has been fundamentally changed so it should be obvious to everyone that just going back to how things used to be isn't possible, but what changes would they make?

This is actually both a good question in itself, and gets to a really good broader question -- namely, how does this turn of events affect the Evolution of the Principate? As I mentioned to @vandevere in another thread, it wasn't until a generation after the death of Augustus that Romans had any idea what a "normal emperor" would even look like; OTL, they finally got one (or something very close to it) with the reign of Claudius.

But that doesn't happen here. Instead, you have: (a) the imperial candidacy of Marcus Vinicius (supported by his wife Julia Livilla, her sister-in-law Agrippina the Younger, and his nephew Lucius Annius Vinicianus); (b) those (like Saturnius) who are calling for a Restoration of the Republic (and it's unclear that means); and possibly (c) Faustus Cornelius Sulla Felix, possibly with the support of his sister (and Claudius' now widow) Messalina. You also have some x-factors to think about: (i) Scribonianus, with his legions in Illyria; (ii) unhappy soldiers in the Praetorian Guard (Cassius is likely supporting Vinicius, but he may not have all the rank-and-file behind him when the s*** hits the fan, as OTL Claudius' unexpected ascension shows); (iii) a potential pro-Caligula mob making their displeasure known; and (iv) possibly other unknown factors.

With a volatile situation like this, it's not enough to just ask "who comes out on top", but rather, "What institutions do they build or build off of to secure power?". And one of the more fascinating potential details of the latter question, which is currently frustrating me to no end, is the phrase I keep coming across where "Caligula restored elections" during his reign. But of course, we know that the subsequent Principate largely operated without said elections -- so, in the first place, is this true? And if so -- well, first, do we actually know any details on that (like, was he just reversing Tiberius' law that did away with the popular assemblies)? And second, do we know when the Principate went back on this reversal (specifically, was it during the reign of Claudius)?

Because if the answers to all those three questions is "yes", then we've got a very interesting situation on our hands here -- because even if Marcus Vinicius "wins" easily enough and is proclaimed emperor, he may not feel he has the pull to reverse Caligula's "reform" of reopening the assemblies. And with the additional challenges of dealing with some opposition right out of the gate (even if said opposition can't really unite behind anyone else to be emperor exactly), this could potentially see the re-emergence of "Roman Politics" with a vengeance.

But what do you guys think?

 

[vandevere]

This is actually both a good question in itself, and gets to a really good broader question -- namely, how does this turn of events affect the Evolution of the Principate? As I mentioned to @vandevere in another thread, it wasn't until a generation after the death of Augustus that Romans had any idea what a "normal emperor" would even look like; OTL, they finally got one (or something very close to it) with the reign of Claudius.

But that doesn't happen here. Instead, you have: (a) the imperial candidacy of Marcus Vinicius (supported by his wife Julia Livilla, her sister-in-law Agrippina the Younger, and his nephew Lucius Annius Vinicianus); (b) those (like Saturnius) who are calling for a Restoration of the Republic (and it's unclear that means); and possibly (c) Faustus Cornelius Sulla Felix, possibly with the support of his sister (and Claudius' now widow) Messalina. You also have some x-factors to think about: (i) Scribonianus, with his legions in Illyria; (ii) unhappy soldiers in the Praetorian Guard (Cassius is likely supporting Vinicius, but he may not have all the rank-and-file behind him when the s*** hits the fan, as OTL Claudius' unexpected ascension shows); (iii) a potential pro-Caligula mob making their displeasure known; and (iv) possibly other unknown factors.

With a volatile situation like this, it's not enough to just ask "who comes out on top", but rather, "What institutions do they build or build off of to secure power?". And one of the more fascinating potential details of the latter question, which is currently frustrating me to no end, is the phrase I keep coming across where "Caligula restored elections" during his reign. But of course, we know that the subsequent Principate largely operated without said elections -- so, in the first place, is this true? And if so -- well, first, do we actually know any details on that (like, was he just reversing Tiberius' law that did away with the popular assemblies)? And second, do we know when the Principate went back on this reversal (specifically, was it during the reign of Claudius)?

Because if the answers to all those three questions is "yes", then we've got a very interesting situation on our hands here -- because even if Marcus Vinicius "wins" easily enough and is proclaimed emperor, he may not feel he has the pull to reverse Caligula's "reform" of reopening the assemblies. And with the additional challenges of dealing with some opposition right out of the gate (even if said opposition can't really unite behind anyone else to be emperor exactly), this could potentially see the re-emergence of "Roman Politics" with a vengeance.

But what do you guys think?

I suspect the situation might be volatile enough to spark yet another series of Roman Civil Wars...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I suspect the situation might be volatile enough to spark yet another series of Roman Civil Wars...

Now see, I still maintain (as I did in the OP) that this is an unlikely scenario.

 

[vandevere]

Okay. Suppose Marcus Vinicius wins. What does he bring to the Principate? Does he and Julia Livilla have any children? What ishis nephew Lucius Annius Vinicianus like. Failing any children, is he an acceptable heir for Marcus Vinicius?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Does he and Julia Livilla have any children? What ishis nephew Lucius Annius Vinicianus like. Failing any children, is he an acceptable heir for Marcus Vinicius?

His safest bet would actually be (at least initially) naming his infant nephew (OTL Nero) as heir; his wife and Agrippina were close, so I imagine this would be easy enough.

As to what Marcus Vinicius “brings” to the Principate -- well, we don’t know as much about him as to have a clear picture here, but we can make inferences from what the political situation would look like (see post #5).

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Trying to think about how the Principate evolves in these circumstances, what strikes me is there’s a few parallels to an imagined scenario where Octavian died before the Second Settlement -- in that you have assemblies electing magistrates, combined with an opposition faction (of sorts) to the actual Princep, and potentially an important role for the “empress” (Livia in the other idea, Julia Livilla in this one). Several key differences -- far less sense of continuity of government (to put it mildly), the Praetorian Guard is now embedded in Rome and in Roman politics, and this scenario is coming off of decades on Principate Rule, instead of just a few years after concluding the last civil war of the period.

So here’s what I’m thinking -- Marcus Vinicius is able to start his reign by co-opting or mollifying any potential adversaries to his rule (ending the exiles of Julia Livilla and Agrippina, naming toddler Nero his heir, promising to work with the Senate, promising to continue to let the public assemblies elect lower officials, etc); however, in the longer term, he can’t keep everyone happy, and if the alienated factions include Agrippina, they may start to look to Nero’s ascension for hope. So by the time the young heir is old enough to be even a puppet emperor (circa 50 CE), people are ready for a change.

What’s fascinating here is that the boy emperor Nero has even more going for him TTL at the start of his reign - - due to the precedent of both Caligula and Vinicius, he’s likely under less pressure to push out the powerful women in his life from governance; he doesn’t have to marry Claudius’ daughter, so he won’t cause as many political issues if he marries who he wants; the Senate has actually gotten used to working both with the assemblies, and so aren’t as skittish about “popular” emperors; the idea of the Praetorian Prefect as high governing official is more normal (and so the death of just one capable official is less likely to destabilize the government); and since he’s coming to power at a young age, Nero isn’t as eager to assert his own authority when he grows up, since he’s gotten used to be g a figurehead.

If Agrippina lived as long as Livia did, she’d make it to the second century; Nero could live longer. And who knows what the Roman World will look like when the lengthy reign of the Fifth Emperor finally comes to an end - - or what the state looks to do after he’s gone?

What do you guys think?

 

[vandevere]

Trying to think about how the Principate evolves in these circumstances, what strikes me is there’s a few parallels to an imagined scenario where Octavian died before the Second Settlement -- in that you have assemblies electing magistrates, combined with an opposition faction (of sorts) to the actual Princep, and potentially an important role for the “empress” (Livia in the other idea, Julia Livilla in this one). Several key differences -- far less sense of continuity of government (to put it mildly), the Praetorian Guard is now embedded in Rome and in Roman politics, and this scenario is coming off of decades on Principate Rule, instead of just a few years after concluding the last civil war of the period.

So here’s what I’m thinking -- Marcus Vinicius is able to start his reign by co-opting or mollifying any potential adversaries to his rule (ending the exiles of Julia Livilla and Agrippina, naming toddler Nero his heir, promising to work with the Senate, promising to continue to let the public assemblies elect lower officials, etc); however, in the longer term, he can’t keep everyone happy, and if the alienated factions include Agrippina, they may start to look to Nero’s ascension for hope. So by the time the young heir is old enough to be even a puppet emperor (circa 50 CE), people are ready for a change.

What’s fascinating here is that the boy emperor Nero has even more going for him TTL at the start of his reign - - due to the precedent of both Caligula and Vinicius, he’s likely under less pressure to push out the powerful women in his life from governance; he doesn’t have to marry Claudius’ daughter, so he won’t cause as many political issues if he marries who he wants; the Senate has actually gotten used to working both with the assemblies, and so aren’t as skittish about “popular” emperors; the idea of the Praetorian Prefect as high governing official is more normal (and so the death of just one capable official is less likely to destabilize the government); and since he’s coming to power at a young age, Nero isn’t as eager to assert his own authority when he grows up, since he’s gotten used to be g a figurehead.

If Agrippina lived as long as Livia did, she’d make it to the second century; Nero could live longer. And who knows what the Roman World will look like when the lengthy reign of the Fifth Emperor finally comes to an end - - or what the state looks to do after he’s gone?

What do you guys think?

It all really depends on how well Nero does. His OTL Reign ended in disaster. What can be done to keep disaster at bay? And will the Great Fire happen on schedule? Of it does, we can probably expect the Christian Persecutions to happen as they did OTL, unless Nero turns out to be a radically different personality this TL...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

It all really depends on how well Nero does. His OTL Reign ended in disaster. What can be done to keep disaster at bay?

I gave a few examples above -- he doesn't kill his mother (due in part to no issue of his marriage to Claudia); any vacancy in the Preatorian Prefectship would be replaced by someone he could work with; and he'd be generally less paranoid and more okay with letting others rule, since he comes to "power" at a much younger age.

And will the Great Fire happen on schedule?

It may, but then the reconstruction effort thereafter was one of OTL Nero's better moments; possibly TTL, he doesn't take the opportunity to build a palace but, thinking on how his two predecessors both fell from grace, might focus on buildings to the public benefit.

If it does, we can probably expect the Christian Persecutions to happen as they did OTL, unless Nero turns out to be a radically different personality this TL...

It's also possible Saul doesn't convert TTL, but that's another issue entirely.

-----

Trying to think what the Principate looks like during and after TTL's-version-of Nero's reign -- even if elections come back, they're not likely to be any more effective than they were under Augustus' reign, so "popular politics" doesn't make any serious comeback; the Praetorian Prefect is considered an actual governing position (not just a military command); women of the imperial family are expected to have politically influential roles; and the Senate is an active role in shaping and executing government policy, with the emperor and imperial household generally following their lead (while still providing a strong incentive against factionalism, corruption, etc).

What do you guys think?