Hey I was recently finished a biography of Caligula and an interesting scenario popped into my head. The conspirators wanted to kill the entire imperial family basically Caligula's wife, daughter and his uncle Claudius .What if after Caligula was killed the assassins managed to track down and kill Claudius (who in OTL managed to hide in the imperial palace and was later proclaimed emperor) but Caligula's wife Milonia Caesonia and daughter Julia Drusilla managed to escape or hide? What would happen, would Drusilla be proclaimed empress under regency or does her gender and age exclude her from the throne? Is the republic restored like some in the senate advocated? Or does some powerful senator or commander seize the throne for himself?
WI: Claudius killed but Julia drusilla surives
- Thread starter Patton
- Start date
Nero was a small boy at the time, and Messalina was pregnant with Britannicus. Either would rank ahead of Julia Drusilla. Formally, I don't think there would be a regency. Instead, if the Julio-Claudian supporters prevailed in the power vacuum, someone else would be chosen as emperor and one of the boys would be the de facto heir presumptive. I don't rule out a Republican restoration, but the late Republic had some institutional problems that would recur.
A republican restoration is definitely possible-how long it would last though...I always thought one of the senators would try to seize power themselves with the support of a large faction of senators. They have to find a way to keep the military in check, as no doubt more than a few commanders will be thinking about the possibility of intervening in "support" of either Nero or Britannicus (no doubt with encouragement from Messalina or Agrippina.
I believe many of the Senators favored a return to the republic, and the plan only collapsed once the Praetorian guard rallied around Claudius has emperor, which they did to maintain the position of the emperor and with it their own power. Seeing as Nero is around three years old and Julia was one and britannicus wasn't born , I don't think the guard would rally around them unless there wasn't an adult alternative, did any such alternative exist.
Well they still want an emperor...the senators really dropped the ball when forgetting to take the Praetorian Guard into account. Plus a young Nero is easier to control (though Agrippina would be a pain). The senate needs to find a way to either accommodate them to their side or take them out.
Well if the Senate wanted to stop the guard they would have needed some military unit to back their plan. Besides the guard the only other force I know that was in the city were Caligula's unit of German bodyguards who scattered after Caligula's death, so they would not have been able to do much, was there any other nearby force they could intervene in time? I doubt the Senators could reach a compromise with the guards because they viewed their status and power be based on their closeness to the emperor, so I think you are right and that they would declare Nero emperor.
Redhand
Banned
The Urban Cohorts could have been militarized for a short time and with sheer numbers they could overwhelm the Praetorians. Same thing with the Vigiles and the Street Gangs of Rome, all of which can be militarized and politicized with bribes, and if there was one thing Senators had, it was a ton of cash. Also, the Roman Fleet at Ostia likely held a good number of marines that could be utilized in a takeover of power provided they too were bribed.
All this requires, methinks, better planning by the conspirators before the assassination. The problem with their plot was that they didn't have much of a plan beyond kill Caligula and his family. It would also be good if they could get the people to perhaps rise up against the guard, but the problem with that was Caligula was fairly popular with the populace.
Redhand
Banned
If even a quarter of what Suetonius says is true about Caligula, which is no sure thing, then I can't see him having much popular support. I don't know about the Senate's support but I gather that they weren't much better with the people as they were rightfully seen as weak and subservient. The part about planning is true, but I think that the institutions I mentioned that could turn the tide would be able to get their act together fast if it meant profit at the downfall of the Praetorians, who were hated (not as much as later on though). The Praetorians were just as disorganized after the assassination as everyone else and the nearest legions at this point are probably up in Cisalpine Gaul.
Actually, there's a great deal to suggest that Claudius, contrary to what he claimed, was in on the whole assassination plan, and thus never really in any danger. But then again, the actual Claudius was one cold-blooded bastard.
Redhand
Banned
I haven't heard about this. Where did you hear he was in on it? You're right about his personality based on the way he somehow survived to old age in that toxic family of his, and I can see why he might have been in on it. Claudius never really had ambition to rule for basically his entire life, but maybe seeing Caligula spin out of control changed something in him.
I generally don't find many of the sources to be reliable at all on Caligula-if you read between the lines, I kinda get the picture of someone who was great at manipulation. He seems to have made the senate fear and hate him while keeping the general populace on his side. It's telling that the people demanded Caligula's murderers be brought to justice-they were on the verge of taking violent action against the senate themselves.
EDIT: As for the Claudius plot, I think the line goes that he was working with the guard-not necessarily that the senate conspirators were aware of it. Still I find it unconvincing.
Redhand
Banned
The same can be generally said for Nero as well. Caligula's popular appeal if it existed may have come from the lavish displays he put on during the start of his reign and his connection to Germanicus, who was a respected hero. Certainly te Senate hated him, whether the stories of incest, dinner rape, and seashell collection are true or not, but it is possible that the desire for justice came from outrage that a Roman leader was murdered and that it was a public disgrace. Assassination was by no means a trend yet, the last guy to have been killed in such a manner was the deified Caesar himself.
Nero did well to win popular support too-a lot of Caligula's support did come from his ancestry and the early years of his reign, but if even a small bit of what was said about him was true then he should have had 0 popular support by that point. I think it is a classic case of who was writing the history-the senatorial class. There's also always the fact that Claudius had to steer the narrative that Caligula was so bad that he had to be assassinated for the public good and find some way to justify so as to justify his rule and make sure nobody thought assassinations could become the new norm-that this was a special case.
As for Nero, he too seemed to have a policy of win over the people and use that as a base of support while not giving much deference to the senate.
Derek Pullem
Donor
We're only a generation before the Year of the Four Emperors - there was no real established succession for the Emperor as yet, Tiberius had to maintain the illusion of the Principate.
I would guess at a messy and early civil war without a figurehead acceptable to the Senate and the Praetorians
I would guess at a messy and early civil war without a figurehead acceptable to the Senate and the Praetorians
I suppose that's a way of doing this. If rioters liquidate the Senate, that could allow the Julio-Claudians to gain power with a regency. The opposition would probably be scattered enough by that to allow them to establish themselves.
He was escorted away moments before the killing by a couple of senators. Then afterwards, he shows up with the Guard in tow, and guess who they're calling Emperor.
It's all a bit too convenient for my taste.
If the rioters liquidate the Senate, then trust me, "establishing a regency" is going to be the least of the Julio-Claudians worries.
The very least.
Do you have a source for this? I don't recall reading it anywhere (not saying you are wrong). Anyway, there is no reason not to believe that there were senators not in on the conspiracy and loyal to Caligula and the Julio-Claudians-particularly those who saw their career doing better with them in charge. It is obvious though that at least the heads of the conspiracy in the senate wanted a restoration of the senate or to seize power themselves. It also makes sense that the praetorians wanted an emperor who could of course keep their position. There may have been a conspiracy within the conspiracy to promote Claudius, but Claudius does not himself have to necessarily have a role in it. They may well have saw Claudius as someone they could easily control, which would have seemed like a valid view at the time.